Break

Tomorrow I will move in a another appartment. It will take some time until I will be back on the ladders of trading. I think the break comes to the right time. Last days were quiet hard. I lost some Euros and the real breakthrough seems more far away than I thought some days or a week ago. It was a mix between bad variance and inadequate trading. In general I am still trading too often the player and not the market. Beside I am missing some facts and take too risky trades.

For example I hoped (probably this is the right word... and the proof that it was a bad bet) for a comeback of Lopez against Young. I unterrated the fact that the Spaniard is not in his best shape. The same mistake I made with Monaco against Seppi. The Italian often plays his best tennis at the Grand Slam tournaments. The same situation with Sloan Stephens, I layed her (normally she struggles at least in one set), but at top events she seems more motivated. All the mentioned trades were no real value... I did better with the market overreactions on both sides in the Verdasco vs. Cuevas game. That was traders dream scenario. Verdasco was traded at 1.15 in the first set (!), around half an hour later Cuevas was at 1.20. In the end won the Spaniard... I have to wait for these kind of games.

The last days I watched a lot of tennis and every day had two or three really good moments. It's quet boring and needs a lot of concentration to wait for these times, but it pays off in the long term. I learned that the professionals don't take the risky trades and try to make save profit. With the green books they play the (more unsecure) value. After half a year without the big breakthrough and refering the discussions with my professional partner I am sure that I have to make some small changes in my approach.

I take the break to get a fresh mind. Beside I will write down the strategy changes I have to do. If I like to live one day of trading I need less variance. I have some ideas to reach this target. The strategies of Sultan will still be part of the new approach, but some additions have to be done...

Surprises...

What's going on at Paris? There are not even played all games of the 2nd round and a lot of favourites are already out of the tournament. The biggest surprise was definitely the loss of Serena Williams. Nothing against Muguruza (she played the match of her life so far), but what was going on with the number 1?! 2:6, 2:6 is a crazy result. Beside that shocker the defeats of Li Na, Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Alizet Cornet and Kei Nishkori are looking like a childrens birthday. Other favourites were a bit "luckier", but had to fight harder than expected (for example Errani, Jankovic or Stepanek/Youzhni in the first round). It seems that the wet and cold conditions are the basis for these upsets.

Perhaps these results would help my trading approach in the past. I often layed big favourites at the start for small odds. Normally this approach doesn't pay off because it's almost impossible to find the big upsets. Beside the mentioned surprises, Ivanovic, Kvitova, Halep, Radwanska, Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic and Ferrer won quiet easy. It's just normal that people think first about the smashed 1.01 to 1.10 odds. On the other hand a huge amount of these bets are "one way tickets".

How these surprises influenced my profit&loss? To be honest, the last days could be better. I missed good opportunities. One of the reasons are the slow pictures. Unfortunately I have only TV coverage of Eurosport. I have a delay of 30 seconds and more at the internet channels. Today I was green on Serena Williams (after she reduced the gap to one break), but when I wanted to hedge the profit, she was already 0:15 down. So I waited and hoped that she will hold. She didn't and my profit was gone. It's really difficult to trade under these circumstances. Okay, there are possiblities to solve this problem (two screens for example), but I am really not happy with the TV coverage. Bet365 has no pictures at all, Tennis TV (which have at least only a delay of around 15 seconds) neither.

Beside some (good value) trades didn't go the way they do normally. It was just bad variance which happens. On the other hand I picked players (for example Lisicki) which I shouldn't. After the match I read that she was ill before the tournament... bad preconditions (beside the slow court) for a good performance.

On the other hand I missed some really great opportunities. I waited too long. Beside the slow pictures the strategies of Sultan don't allow an entry during a game. It's a save approach and I don't blame it, but you can miss value. The market often overreachts at breakpoints, so it's a good opportunity to enter. The risk/reward is huge at these moments. If the break appears, you lose some ticks (obvious), but if not, you are in a really strong position. Don't forget, the server (at least at men matches) has still the advantage on his side.

Lately I changed a bit more to "freestyle trading". Value is value, and sometimes you can't wait until the (second) break is here. Often the chance will not come again... Raonic was traded at 1.80 in the first set. That was value (was a price like he lost the first set already), but it was just available during one single game. About hedging and re-investing I talked last time. I think when I can improve the hit rate, this topic is getting less important. Profit brings profit and you will act quieter. Beside the in the last post described half stake approach helps my mind. You are not that much under pressure to close the trade too early.

Some months ago there was a discussion about hedging. In general you should only do it, when the value is gone. When you go with the favourites it's easier, often the market trusts them too much. So you will find good hedging opportunities. The other way is more difficult. It takes a perceived eternity until the market accepts the possibility for a dog win. With this knowledge you should hedge more often the favourites than the dogs. In reality are a lot more influences: gut feeling, generated profit of  the day, how many games to go and so on...

In summary I would say that trading tennis should be much more intuitive than following rules. The strategies of Sultan are a good help for beginners, but are not flexible enough. He refers in his guide to advanced trading (with less fix exits and with re-invest), I think this is more the style which makes him so successful. Now I am quiet sure that you will be less successful if you search for patterns (fix entry and exit-points). In the guide it's a lot of talk about laying low odds (mainly under 1.30), but often backing 1.80 can be value as well. No wonder that I struggled in the beginning with a very bad hitting rate. Obviously you will have a lot of losing trades, when you lay players around or under 1.30...

French Open started well...

Since I am in the new partnership (http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/2014/05/partnership-in-sight.html) things are improving. I discussed my trading style with the professional trader.

• The biggest issue is the exit. I talked about it in the last post. At an even matchup, especially on clay, or at a risky score (for example 4:4) is better to hedge. Often there are more possibilites at a later stage of the match.
• You don't have to lay a big favourite at the start of a match to make decent profit. It's almost impossible to find in advance the good performing underdog(s) of the day. Beside the starting odds are normally right, especially at the duels "David vs. Goliath".
• If a big favourite is behind, don't wait too long. Often the value disappears very quickly when the "Goliath" starts to play better.
• Look for value, but don't speculate. Too often I layed a big favourite after one set to hope for a comeback of the underdog.
• I rised the stakes to around 3% of my bank. It has different advantages. First of all I don't speculate anymore. I only enter if I feel a big chance to make at least 20-25 ticks. Second even a small swing brings good profit which I can re-invest afterwards. Third the bank grows quicker (of course only if you trade successful).
• He also works with half and full stakes. To hedge the entry price it's a very good approach. I think is the better one than taking half of the full stake out if trade goes in the wrong direction.

Today I made around 100 Euro profit with tennis. The loss of 12 Euro were a (fun) outright bet on Bencic. Unfortunately her performance wasn't enough good against Venus Williams, and beside the draw was a bit unlucky for her. I am quiet happy with the result, because I managed a profit despite missing great opportunities (Stepanek, Youzhni). I was really confused with the best of five mode. The market reacts different and I was not prepared. At Youzhni match I staked too high and went out at the first point the trade was green. For Stepanek I was not prepared after I was confused with the game before.

Without much stress I could make today around 500 Euro profit. You "just" have to wait for the right opportunities. Unfortunately not all days bring so much chances like today. Because the mostly one sided games it's hard to find value at the first rounds at a Grand Slam tournament.

Beside I invested some money at the trading programme of my partner. How I heard he already doubled my initial stake. He is definitely the Novak Djokovic of traders. It's great to work together with one of the best (tennis) traders. I improved a lot in the last two weeks. Time will tell if the meeting with the professional trader was the step to level five of trading: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

The difference between a pro and me...

Today was a really tough day, not one good outcome for my professional partner and me. The big difference between us... he was able to make profit (despite our favoured players lost) and me not. I wrote a similar post some days ago about killer instinct. To be more precise, I think it's mainly a problem of hedging.

While my partner hedged his greens (Kerber, Berlocq, Garcia... all of them lost!) I was overconfident and in chasing mode with Kerber and Petkovic. Unfortunately both Germans couldn't take profit of the gained momentum and lost in straight sets against underdogs. Especially after a bad start (which I had with Seppi against Istomin) the risk to miss the hedge on the right time is big.

There are different styles of trading with green positions. I discussed this topic more than once with Sultan, but there is not one right answer. He told me that the decicion has made BEFORE the trade goes green. Unfortunately I didn't do this. I speculated that the Germans will reach the 3th set with the gained momentum. In general both ladies didn't play well, so it would be better to go the save way. Especially before a big tournament you never know if a player tanks.

If you decide to green-up but think more opportunities for swings may occur in the match, you can "re-invest" or "churn" your profit. This is more the style of my partner. There are matchups which this approach doesn't make much sense. Especially if a big favourite (for example Rafa) comes from behind, I would not expect much more swings. At a more even matchup this strategy seems better. I (almost) never saw one way traffic between two equal strong players after one reduced the gap. Normally there will be more swings...

I can remember that Sultan made a post on his blog about his small change of trading style. With bigger stakes he entered the market for shorter periods. The target was often one break and afterwards he churned the profit. I learned that the professionals normally don't go for the "jackpot". They normally don't lay 1.05 and hold the position until the end. Perhaps they do after a fantastic day, but in general they are looking for free bets or save profit. Was it save to hold profit on Petkovic and Kerber? Not really... both players are not in their very best shape. It's a different story to ride a trade of Nadal, Djokovic, Sharapova or Williams to the end (especially at big tournaments). I recognized that you can't trust too much on the momentum you see on the court (the market actually includes this). There are some exceptions when a underdog really plays well and the market is still in love with the favourite, but often the momentum change is already priced in (for example at the 4:4 score of Kerber). The situacion of Kerber was tricky... if Pliskova breaks, she is in real troubles. That happened (even when it was looking like she gained momentum before), so my good looking trade went terrible in the wrong direction. Afterwards the Czech player could serve for the match and succeed. More or less the equal situation we had with Petkovic... twice I was caught. In the way Kerber was serving during this match, I should not take this gamble.

In summary I learned today that is important to hedge more. "Let the green trades run" is only in some circumstances the right approach. In general I would say this is the case when a (big) underdog plays well and the market is still in love with the favourite or if the big player comes from behind and starts to perform. At more even matchups is better to ride the waves. Normally there is no one way traffic at these matches...

Strategies

It's a pleasure to work together with my new partner. One of the disadvantages of beeing a trader is the loneliness. You can't share the success or the mistakes during the day with another person like in a normal job. Since we trade together, it's more fun.

Beside the partnership helps to share ideas. I learned that he has different approaches, especially scalping is a big part of his strategy. I know how mighty it can be. When I heard that Djokovic is injured (against Federer at Monte Carlo) I laid him quiet big before the game. As more and more people got this information the price soared. It's all about quick data access and enter the market at points, where is not much risk (before the game, breaks, medical time outs, between the points). Unfortunately I have not the necessary equipment to make money with this way. Courtsiding and quick pictures would help. Obviously you can trade more agressive when you have the security of (quiet easy) scalping profits. Perhaps I will do this approach one day, but at the moment I have not the opportunities to do it.

The common strategies of Sultan are still working for me, but I made some small adjustments. I recognized that it's almost impossible to hit the lowest entry point (on a lay view). For example I saw today value at Benneteau (against Berlocq) after he was down 0:2 in the first set. So I laid Berlocq at 1.33. The French man didn't find his rhythm and continued to struggle until he was 1:6, 0:2 down. Now the Argentinian was traded at 1.03. What did I do? I reduced my stake after the first set and backed Berlocq at 1.11. So I reduced my possible loss to 80%. What happened? Benneteau started a great comeback and the price of his opponent soared to 2.50 (when Benneteau had two breakpoints in the 3th set). Because I reduced my stake too early (the exit point is part of the strategy), my profit was not really good after the start of the 3th set. I hedged (because I was afraid to lose... risk/reward was bad) and ended with a profit of 1.54 Euro. If I traded this matchup in a good manner I could make at least 50 Euro.

This scenario happened too often in the past. The ideas are good, but I can't cash in. When I enter the trade, it often starts bad and I have no balls to hold the position. So I reduce the stake for no value. On the other hand I am often too cautious to take opportunities because I hope for even better entry points...

I decided to turn the strategy. I only stake 1/2 when I initially enter a trade. Instead of reducing the stake (when the trade goes against me), I rise it if there is a lower entry point and I still trust the player. Thanks to the lower initial stake this "two way strategy" is possible. This approach has big advantages:

• You lose less if a player really struggles and you lose confidence (max. 50%).
• You can reduce your average entry price if the trade goes against you.
• If the the trade goes in your direction you probably trade with more balls, because the stake is smaller. It helps in the psychological part of trading.

I am quiet sure that this change will help my mind. In the end trading is a brain game, the traders with the most discipline (money management, proper execution of trades, stop losses) and "biggest balls" (staying in green trades, exit-points) are the most successful. It's like at tennis, the players with most talent, discipline (training efforts, life style) and killer instinct (playing big points, big matches) are the best ones. My biggest issue is definitely the third point... if I like to go one day fulltime I have to solve this issue!

Patience is the most important skill

In the beginning of his trading guide Sultan quoted Dr. Alexander Elder from 'Come into my Trading Room':

"Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds."

To be honest, I didn't understand this sentence in the beginning. Now I do. How I wrote some days ago, I started a partnership with a professional trader which reached the premium charge of Betfair long time ago. I found out that he is cooking with water as well, but he acts a lot better in the crucial stages of a trade (mainly entry- and exit-points). It's the same thing in tennis games. Rafa and Nole are not that much better than a Top50 player, but in the most important points they can rise their level. On the other side the underdog starts to make mistakes.

Let's go in an example: Today played Ana Ivanovic vs. Serena Williams. The starting price of Serena was 1.25, pretty low in my opinion. On the other hand Williams wins this matchup on a normal day, but some months ago she lost at Australian Open even with a one set lead.

What will do the amateur? He will back Serena since the start, because he is confident that Serena will win. He risks 100 Euros for a profit of 25 Euros. After the first set is looking like an easy bet without much sweat, but Ana is a different player after the break and wins the second set with 6:3. Now the amateur gets worried, the price is already 1.40... in the end he wins the bet, but was a challenge which is not necessary.

What will do a novice? He heard about the value concept and thinks that 1.25 is quiet a low price. So he puts a lay bet since the start. With the same risk of 100 Euros, he can make a profit of 400 Euros (16 times more!). After the first set, the trade is not looking good. Half of the money is gone. Now he has different options. Let's say, he will stay in the trade (if he has balls). So, he would make a nice profit after the second set (if he hedges). The sweat is more or less the same like the amateur has, the difference is the better risk/reward-profile (because Ana was value). Instead of 25 Euros, he can win 400 Euros.

What will do the professional? He knows how strong Williams is and doesn't need the risk to see one way traffic (backing 1.25 is no option for the professional neither). He just enters when the market gives an opportunity. This can be a higher price for Williams or a very low one (for laying). After the first set he lays Williams for 1.10 (for a possible win of 1'000 Euros). If Ana would win the first set, he would enter (or wait a bit more) to back Serena. He trades the market not the players.

Like Dr. Alexander Elder said, professionals are looking for easy trades with good odds. It's quiet easy to lay Williams at 1.10. The risk/reward-profile is brilliant. If Ana wins the first set, he still can enter the market for a comeback (because Williams has the weapons to beat Ivanovic even with a set and break down).

That's just an example, but that's the reality. The professionals are patient. Before the start (especially in the case of the top players) the market is very efficient. There are barely no hidden information. During the match people start to panic, emotions are in the market. Overreactions take place. That's the paradies for the professionals because they are just waiting for this scenario. If there is no such situacion the pros are not involved. At tennis you only have to win the last point of the match. The other ones "don't count" in the end. With this knowledge the professional traders stay calm like Djokovic or Nadal and wait for the right opportunity. If there is one way traffic of the favourite they will not enter the market.

In theory it's quiet easy to trade like this. In reality it's more difficult, but is good to know that the professionals are cooking with water too. They have no crystal ball neither. :-)  My partner says that I am like Dimitrov, talented but not proven in big moments. Let's see if the Baby Federer will be one day a real Fedex...

 

Killer instinct is still missing...

I reached a level which allows me to spot value. I expected today a loss or at least a hard game for Stan Wawrinka. I was right with the comeback of Dimitrov (against Berdych), and I gave Ivanovic some credit against Sharapova. Was I profitable today? No!!

I had a bad start in the day (once again)! I saw value in backing Cetkovska against Errani. She played quiet well for beeing a big underdog (starting price: 3.75). Unfortunately she made too many unforced errors, in other case she would succeed. I was not at all impressed of Errani. Her serve was a shame... it's a pity that Cetkovska didn't take profit. After this game I hoped for a comeback of Stosur against Li. In the past she arranged a 6:0 H2H record. Today she lost her focus after a decent start. Probably I should go more with my gut feeling in such a moment. H2H is past and doesn't matter much during a match.

A bad start never is good for the continuation of the day. I had good ideas with laying Stan (against Haas) and Berdych (after first set). Unfortunately I lost the trust in Haas after he was a set and a game down and I reduced my stake. After he won the second set, I hedged for a small profit. Profit is profit, but if the start would be better, I would take more risks. It's important to let run "green trades", but after a weak start the mind is getting more cautious. The same situation happened with Dimitrov. Instead of going with the momentum, I went on the (too) save side and hedged all the profit.

In the night session I made a poor trade with Gulbis against Ferrer. There was no need to go with the Latvian player. He lost a week ago at Madrid against the Spaniard and didn't play his best tennis against Robert in the last round. On the other side David showed strong performances at Rome. In the end I missed the Djokovic comeback. I excatly knew how I should trade this game, but I was not focused anymore. Beside I missed in the afternoon the surprise of Ivanovic. The starting price definitely was value.

In summary I feel the progress. I am now comfortable with the 14 strategies of Sultan. Two months ago I always wanted to be involved since the start of the matchup. I layed Djokovic, Nadal, Williams and so on with the start price. Now I recognized that it's not necessary to go for the big surprise to make a profit. Often is better to wait and see how things are going inplay. It's just speculation to hope for a bad start of the big favourite. So I changed my approach... instead of hoping for a bad start of the big favourite, I wait for a better price to back him. The lays at starting price are better in more even matchups where the price was pushed down too much (like Ivanovic vs. Sharapova).

The partnership with the guy from France starts next days. I will keep you informed how things with my new partner and my own trading continue. Tomorrow I have to work again, so not much trading is planned. Saturday and Sunday are pretty quiet (just half finals and finals). In ten days the French Open will begin. It will be interesting to see if I am capable to make profits at a Grand Slam tournament with a lot of action...

Partnership in sight?!

Since two days I work together with an experienced full time trader from France. He already reached the premium charge of Betfair and is interested in a partnership. I think it's a good opportunity for me. The "apprenticeship" with Sultan is more or less over. The academy officially ends at the end of the season, but I don't see anymore much added value for me. Actually it's a good sign, because I learned his approach and his mentality. So I benefited a lot, but to reach the next level I have to work closer with a professional. In my eyes it's missing the live support in Sultan's package to reach the final stage. I don't blame him for this, because he never made wrong promises. I just feel that I have to go additional ways to accomplish the real breakthrough. I am still at stage four if you you take the trading cycle: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

At the moment we are discussing the details. He plans to trade courtside during the French Open. So it's just the right time to fix this partnership.

Today I traded some matches, but missed two great opportunities (Sijsling and Seppi). If you are not 100% focused during a trading day this happens. Unfortunately the good trades went in the wrong direction (also for my partner). In the end I just had two lost trades (Barthel and Robredo) and two very small greens (Kvitova and Cibulkova). If Petra Kvitova would win the match and Dominika Cibulkova at least one set, I would have a decent profit. Together with the missed trades was too much failure to make a profit. On the financial view it was a disappointing day. Despite this fact I am happy, because my comprehension for value is so much better now.

Unfortunately the TV coverage doesn't meet my taste tomorrow. I would prefer to see (value) games like Ivanovic vs. Cornet, Halep vs. Keys or Lepchenko vs. Stephens. Instead they are showing matchups which I expect very onesided like Federer vs. Chardy, Gulbis vs. Robert or Nadal vs. Simon. Perhaps the mentioned games will be better than expected, but I don't reckon much opportunities tomorrow. Perhaps I will do some scoreboard trading with lower stakes, but it's not my favourite way to trade.

Chasing

I wrote some days ago about my soccer trading and the high stakes. Now I definitely know that I overstaked. At the match beween Inter and Lazio I expected a lot of goals. Unfortunately I didn't trade out when the score was 3:1. I had a small cover at 4:1 and a big stake at 4:2. It's a pity that Miro Klose missed seconds before the end the 4:2. Instead of a big win, I had a small loss. Nothing special... you win and lose bets. Instead of taking a break, I started to chase. Like (almost) always this is the beginning of the end. I lost bigger, and I throw away a 1/3 of my bank!

Today I could regroup. I had some good tennis bets (I will talk later about them) and was more lucky with the chasing. I was desperate to reach at least the level I started some weeks ago. Fortunately I made it. I swear myself that I will definitely not do this anymore in the future. The chasing just started because the wrong stakes at soccer. It was the last proof that good money management it's the key to successful trading. I am still confident about my soccer strategy, but I have to make a big reduction of the stakes. I guess that I overstaked with factor 10! Good to know for the next soccer season. Until the world cup there are no more interesting matchups for me. Beside it's good to focus on tennis with the upcoming French Open.

At tennis things are going smooth. I was talking about my outright bet of Nishikori to win French Open. Since I backed him a few days ago the price fell from 70 to under 20 (at the time Nishikori was winning against Nadal in the final). I decided to hedge my trade for a free bet. I will wait at least until the draw is out for more profit taking. I don't expect that the Japanese will win the French Open, but I would not be surprised if he reaches the half final. Since I backed him at 70, the value is more or less gone. Now he is no real "black horse" anymore...  The market realized that he is really in a great shape.

Beside I traded the finals of Madrid. I expected comebacks of Sharapova (at the start I backed Halep; after the first set I switched the position) and Nadal. I saw more or less all the matches of Nishikori. It was probable that his body will fail at some point. He had in every matchup like one or two treatments of his back. In comparison to the 1.08 Rafa-Backers I had not much risk when I layed Nishikori at 1.57. At this point Nadal was value. First of all the Spaniard started to play better and second I knew about the injury problems of Kei.

At tennis I have nothing to change. Since I enter with half of the stake to lay (value) odds over 1.40 I improved. I miss less opportunities and if the trade goes against me, I have the opportunity to enter for lower odds with the other half of the stake. It's an approach Sultan doesn't do, but after the "apprenticeship" it's good to develop more and more my own style. That's the reason for the blog's name. Bruce Lee ("Lay" it's a play on words) also combined the best techniques of different battle styles. This is exactly what I like to do... I try to take all the best of other traders and develop my own strategies.

Since the new start (at the first of May) I have a ROI of 6.87%. The sample is not enough big to tell that I am profitable now. I prefer to say something about the quality of my trades. I made 28 trades since the first of May. In this timeframe I just produced three bad ones, which I didn't follow the value strategy. That's a big step forward. I am now a lot more patient, and that's one of the keys to trade successful. The biggest issue it's still the trading in a winning position. I am too cautious. Instead of making too early "all green", it's better to ride the momentum. The screen is looking more comfortable in an "all green position", but even when a good trade starts to turn, you have enough time to hedge without a loss.

Next week it will take place the tournament of Rome. Another big event, unfortunately I have to work tomorow. Tuesday to Thursday will be my (busy) trading days. I hope I can continue with the good run. If I should have some losing days, I am not allowed to get a negative mindset. It's just the normal variance, even the best traders have good and bad runs...

Some live tennis (without Federer)

Weekends are normally quieter for the traders, especially if there is only one tournament. Today there are just four games on the major level (excluded the qualification of Rome where is no TV coverage). Most of these games brought big missmatches, especially Rafa Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, but Sharapova vs. Radwanska could be expected onesided as well.

So I decided to take the day off and try to see the greatest of all time, Roger Federer, live in action. With some research I find out, where Kyrgios and Fed train. Just around 20 minutes from the place I live, so was not a long way to go. Unfortunately they were not there anymore when I arrived, but the rumours were right, that they trained in Zürich at the court I thought. So I only could make some photos of the place Roger played last days.

http://www.blick.ch/sport/tennis/mirka-im-spital-mit-leo-und-lenny-roger-als-super-nanny-mit-myla-charlene-auf-dem-tennisplatz-federer-im-papi-glueck-id2840856.html

It was a bit disappointing to miss Fedex and Kyrgios just for around one hour, but I will try it again if Roger skips the tournament at Rome. At least I had the opportunity to watch some Swiss Championship tennis. There was a game with Naima Karamoko (see her at the pictures below), the Swiss number 59. She ist just 16 years old (even younger than Bencic), but plays already on a high level. I never saw a game on ATP or WTA tour, but now I have an idea how strong they play. I was "already" impressed about Naima... she is not only beautiful, she also knows how to play tennis. She ist probably around number 1'000 or even higher in the world...

 

Another fantastic day...

The things changed dramatically in the last month. Some weeks ago I had big doubts about my future as a trader. Probably you read about my probems, I was stuck at breakeven level. Suddenly I have the right approach to trade. The slogan which brought me the success is quiet easy: "Expect the unexpected". This mindset helps a lot in trading, especially at soccer. I rised my bank around 20% in the last days, so I have now a decent buffer for a bad run.

Yesterday I wrote that I expect a 3:0 or 3:1 between Manchester City and Aston Villa. Jovetic scored the 3:0 at the 89th minute. At this moment I was big green and could lay the score for 1.17. I did this quiet big to secure the profit. I know that one swallow doesn't make the summer, but I am extremely confident that I found a system which works for me. It's still not perfect, but the general concept I like a lot.

At tennis I spotted pre game a lot of value. Almost all of "my players" won their matches or at least a set (Vinci, Giraldo, Pavlyuchenkova and Kuznetsova). Unfortunately I only placed two trades, because I was worried about a too early entry (before the start). I have to say that in general the strategy is based on inplay entries. In the last days I often missed good trades, because I hoped for an even better entry during the match. I talked about this issue with Sultan. He suggested me to enter the market, at the moment when I find value. Actually he is right, laying 1.45 at the beginning can be better value than 1.30 after one player made an (early) break. The bigger problem are the missed trades I mentioned above.

I decided to stake at least half of the whole amount at the start of the match if I find good value. With the other half I hope for an even a better price (if there is no lower price, my trade is a winner... not that bad neither :-)). If I see that the early entries are working, I can rise the stakes. Sultan prefers not to overcomplicate the things. Actually he is right, but I don't have his level to find always real value. So this way seems a good compromise for me.

Next days I can focus on tennis. There are no good soccer games until Sunday. I don't like to trade in leagues where the championship is already decided (like Germany or Italy). I will concentrate on Spain and England until the end of the season. I hate matches like AS Roma at Catania (4:1 for the home team). It's obvious that one team is not fighting anymore... so it's impossible to analyse the match in a proper way.

We are cooking...

Well, things are getting interesting. It was quiet a busy trading day. It started at 11 o'clock with Gulbis vs.  Janowicz and it's not finished yet. Ivanovic is still playing against Jovanovski. So far this game didn't bring good entry points, so I can already write this post.

I am quiet happy how things are going with the correct score market trading. Today I managed a good profit again. Manchester United won against Hull 3:1. I expected more or less this score (I favoured 3:0 and 3:1 with a small protection on 4:0). After a slow start I got the opportunity to enter the market for good value. I don't know how I will do in the future with this strategy, but I am quiet optimistic. Tomorrow Manchester City will play at home against Aston Villa. Again I expect a score in this range. Perhaps it's wise to put some security on 4:0 and 4:1, but only a small one. After Liverpool threw away a 3:0 lead, I guess City will no do the same mistake and will be happy with a "normal win" like 3:0 or 3:1.

Unfortunately I missed two of the best tennis games today. I had to change the tyres of my car, so I was exactly away when Sharapova and Fognini were playing. The comebacks of Masha are famous, I would back her for sure when she was 1:3 (or 1:4) down in the third set. Fognini was traded too low after the first set... Dog was the favourite (and won in the end), but with Fabio you always have to count on the unprobable outcome. The only constant is his bad mood on the field. This time he went too far and will be punished hard. He is a great character on tour, but now he passed a point which is not acceptable anymore.

In the evening the surprise of Thiem against Stan was the highlight. I am not that much surprised. Wawrinka is still not the player you can trust for low odds (1.17), especially not against a future topshot like his Austrian opponent. I arranged a small profit, but I didn't trade very well. In the future I will do it slightly different with such a strong underdog. I will stake lower in the beginning and will let run the trade until the end or the point I am big green. This time I reduced my stake after the first set for a small loss... Normally this approach it's okay, but with a lay since the start it's so much time left to turn the things in the right direction.

In summary I am happy how things are improving. At tennis I feel really a progress and at soccer I am on the way to develop a strategy which I am comfortable with.

At this moment Ivanovic finished her match against Jovanovski. She won in straight sets. Probably she wanted to go to bed... :-)  I am happy that I didn't enter this market. I am quiet sure that I would do it some weeks ago. Ana was traded quiet low, but now I have a better feeling for surprises. I know I will miss the one or other opportunity (like at the weekend with Klizan and Berlocq), but the most important it's the protection of the bank. At soccer I have to think about this issue... because my strategy is quiet save, my stakes are higher.

Craziest game ever?!

I saw crazy soccer in my life, but this one was probably the most curious one ever. Today played Liverpool against Crystal Palace. The Reds scored in the 53th minute the 0:3, so everything was ready for a great finish to improve the goal difference in the championship race against Manchester City (and Chelsea). They were so dominant, it was just a question of time until Liverpool scores the 0:4, 0:5 or 0:6. Crystal Palace was dead and not at all interested in this match. Out of the blue the home team scored in the 79th minute 1:3. Nothing happend, just a small accident... Everybody thougt at this moment that Pool will win 1:4 or 1:4, in the worst case 1:3. Again counterattack and boom, there was the 2:3!! How this can happen?! At this point the Reds were still winning, so not so much happened. To close the goal difference gap to Manchester City was just a dream, so a win it's okay as well. Now the nerves were gone... and the equalizer was not such a surprise anymore. Was the logical consequence.

The 3:3 was traded for 1'000! Unfortunately the 0:3 came too early for me (53th minute), so I had to secure some higher scores for Liverpool. In the end these insurances destroyed my profit (and I lost a bit), but could be worse when there would be a 3:4 or 4:3. This match showed that soccer sometimes brings the crazier swings than tennis.

Despite or let's better say thanks to these kind of matches the correct score market can be really interesting. Today I lost my trade, but as a learning I will secure in the future these very unprobable scores for 1-2 Euros (would be enough to make a huge win today).

At tennis I just traded one game. Like (almost) you can trust "never giving up" Hewitt. Like I expected he won a set against Giraldo. Leyton is just a great sportsman. In earlier days I expected that he will be more successful than Federer. He was the youngest number 1 ever. Even when he "only" won two Grand Slam titles, he is one of the biggest fighter this game ever saw. I hope that he will part of the ATP tour some years more.

Tomorrow Thiem will play against Stan Wawrinka. In my eyes we can expect a really interesting battle. For odds around 1.17 Stan is a lay in my opinion... I know Stanimal just won Monte Carlo, but in my opinion he is still not the guy you can trust for this kind of odds against a rising star.

 

Correct score market

Some days ago I wrote that soccer is not made for trading. In general I have still this opinion, but today I found decent value at the corret score market. It seems that most traders expect a lot of goals when big teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid or Chelsea are playing (at home). Often the reality is different... in general I guess that there is more value at the under scores. I think it's because most bettors are afraid of the suspended sign. Beside football is about scoring, so the natural instinct tells us to go for the goals.

So far so good... During the game I traded, I reognized that laying the actual score and backing the unprobable outcomes (like 2:2 or 1:2 Valencia) had huge value. To be honest, in my past I lost a lot of bets with laying unprobable scores. A lot of newbies are looking for an easy win (Valencia 3:1 doesn't seem very probable,  that's true... but for 1.05 I would not back this result!), so they lay without thinking about the value. 1:3 for Valencia was traded at 20 after they scored the 1:2. I tell you, the counterattacks were really dangerous... so I was surprised to find such an odd.

I think I found a way for trading (and not betting) soccer. The correct score market it's quiet a good place to seek for value. You can react without any problems before and after a goal. It's easier as the match market (1X2) or the over/under because there you need a specific outcome. In my opinion you have more options to react inplay at the correct score market. Probably it's similar to horse trading, there are also a lot of possible outcomes (not only two or three like at the mentioned soccer markets).

Tennis is still my main interest. I feel a slightly progress. I am not yet a "chess player" which thinks four, five or even more steps ahead. If you can do this, you will succeed. Let's make an example. Angie Kerber had a nightmare start against Garcia, what I actually expected. To be honest I didn't lay her at the start, because I am not a fan of laying odds over 1.50. If the trade goes against me, it's pretty costly for a small profit. You can discuss about this approach, because value it's value... It's just my trading style. If Kerber would be ten ticks lower (unfortunately the price rised before the game) I would do it. So far so good... when she was 0:4 down, Garcia was traded under 1.45. That was the price you could more or less expect after she won the first set (if Kerber would not lose 0:6... but even in this case she would not be traded under 1.30). At this point was possible to make a "free bet" on Kerber until the end of the first set if you would think some steps ahead... Unfortunately I didn't take the opportunity. Kerber made three games in a row and the price of Garcia jumped again over 2.50. Without many risk (at most 15 Ticks... in a very bad case) you could make over 100 Ticks or more if Angie would win the first set... that's good trading. In the end, Garcia won the first set (6:3) and she was trading exactly at 1.45...

I layed Garcia too late and when Kerber retired I lost the whole stake. I would not say that it was a really poor trade, but after she took a medical time out (MTO) a too risky one. It's the second time in two weeks I lost the whole stake because of a retirment. Both times the players had a treatment before (both were Germans... I hope it was just random and has no meaning :-)). It's a learning for the future... if "my player" takes a MTO I will close the trade or at least reduce the stake.

In general I had a good day. I am more comfortable with the players. Not with all (for sure), but at a bigger tournament it's easier for me. The top50 of ATP and WTA players I know now quiet well and in Madrid are not so much more. :-)  Beside I am not mad anymore, when I miss a surprise. Okay, Berdych (against Berlocq) and Fognini (against Klizan) lost the finals after they won each the first set. Klizan was sick (he couldn't barely sit on his chair during the breaks) and Berlocq lost the first set 0:6. There was really no indication for comebacks. In earlier days I would be mad, not taking such trades... Right now I know that this would be just speculation on a very small probability (something like playing lotto). For fun you can try such a trade, but it's more a gamble. Above I wrote what's trading for me. I think it's a big step to recognize the difference between trading and hoping for a (surprise) outcome. There are a lot better games for possible swings. Klizan and especially Berlocq would train (like the prices suggested) in the normal case in no time to 1.01...

I registered at www.tennistv.com. I think it's a good addition to my bet365 account. The disadvantage it's a delay of around ten seconds against bet365, but I have bigger pictures and can watch up to four matches in the same screen. My trading style is not that much "in and out", so I can live with the mentioned delay. The stable and good quality pictures are worth it. Beside you can listen to interviews and inside information. It's a good source to improve my player knowledge.

Tomorrow I have to work again. It's a pity, these days are breaking my trading rhythm. On the other side this job gives me the financial security. At the moment it's too early to think about full time trading, but it's still my big target. I will keep you informed, have a great week!

Value is value...

I am disappointed, there are really great (qualification) matches at Madrid, but all around you don't find any TV coverage. It seems that there is more interest in a challenger match between Marco Trungelliti (Who the f... is this? :-)) and Facundo Bagnis than in a qualification game between Belinda Bencic and Camila Giorgio. Neither bad was Thiem against Leo Mayer or Errani against Petkovic... Tomorrow Serena faces Bencic, but probably again without TV pictures.

The ATP half finals at Munich and Portugal didn't bring great matchups to trade. Klizan could be a try against Haas, but would be a gamble. If Tommy is 100% healthy (he was not looking that bad in earlier rounds) he would dominate the Slovak at home for sure. The only real good match for trading was Suarez Navarro versus Kuznetsova. Unfortunately I missed once again the entry point. I was waiting too long to have a 1-2 tick better entry. I really have to stop this perfectionism. You will "never" hit the bottom price, it's like at the stock exchange... Beside I trusted Struff too much against Fognini. Unfortunately he played a poor game, Fabio didn't have to show his best. He was never in a bad mood that shows how easy the game was for him. :-)

Why i traded the Fabio game? It was just because there was nothing good to trade, and I was mad because the missed entry at the WTA final in Portugal. I am still not enough patient, it's obvious.

I saw better value on other matches, but they were not shown on TV. I am not a big supporter of scoreboard trading because you can't read the game. Despite this fact you have to consider that beside the courtsiders nobody has live pictures. So it's more or less the same situacion like when everybody has live pictures. I decided to trade without pictures when I find good value, especially when there are no good matchups with TV coverage. Value is value... 

Start "Year 0"

I didn't trade much today. I waited too long with laying Bouchard. The right moment would be when she was up 3:1 (or 4:1) in the first set. I hoped for an entry after the first set. It showed me (again) that you should take the first opportunity for the value. Of course the odd is smaller after a player won the first set, but it doesn't mean that's a better entry point. If the favourite is ahead with won set, it needs a lot of time until the odd recovers. In general I would say, that the value is often better in the first set...

Beside I was watching Vinci vs. Vesnina. Unfortunately the match didn't take the progression I hoped for. After Vesnina won the first set, the value was gone. In the last set Vinci was ahead 4:1 (!!) and lost... I don't like so much the entries at the last set, but could be a try after she was ahead 5:7, 6:4 and 2:0. I did something similar in the last round against Cadantu (and lost). So I didn't have the balls to try it again. That's the reason why it's so important to have self confidence. Without it's quiet difficult to trade...

Aside I was on Bellucci against Delbonis. Unfortunately I changed the sides in the last set. Again I was more betting than trading. In the 2nd set the Brazilian was looking stronger, so there was no need for going more or less "all in" for Delbonis.

In the last trade I was overconfident backing Kubot against Berlocq. That was a poor trade... I just went for a small laying odd (and not for value), because I hoped for another suprise (like against Gabashvili). At a normal day Berlocq is on clay stronger than Gaba... The Russian was traded so low because his win against Ferrer some days ago. That was a good success, but we all know that people of Russia often have a lack of interest in minor games. So it doesn't surprise me that he struggled after his big win.

Overall it was a quiet day with some good learnings. Nothing totally new, but important confirmations:

• Not wait too long if you see real value! Take the opportunity... normally it doesn't come again.
• Don't bet! Go for the value, also after the entry (some exceptions with very big favourites after a comeback... normally there is no value, but they often win when the momentum changed).
• Let the green trades run as good as possible (in a normal case at least one set without greening).
• Keep the previous day analysis (It was really good... in general I watched and traded more or less the right games).

Tomorrow I have to work again. I guess I will not have much time to trade.

1st of May: The (last) journey begins...

Today is the first of May. 20 years ago Ayron Senna died (wow... I am getting old :-)), one of my favourite sportsmen. A sad day, but that is not the topic of this post.

In German we say "Alles neu, macht der Mai". It means that everything is changing in May. In my case it's the perfect time to make a "new start" with trading. Since I started the blog, I made a lot of learnings. For example that the concentration on one sport is good (for me). Soccer and NBA didn't work, at tennis I see light on the horizon. The apprenticeship is over. I am more or less breakeven at tennis (despite a lot of bad trades I did!), it should be a question of time to reach the fifth stage of betfair trading: https://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

In the article he is talking about six month on the fourth stage, where I am now. If I will not make it to next step in the next half year I failed. From today until the rest of the season it's more or less half a year. So it's a great opportunity to find out in the remaining part of the year if I have the trading skills (or not) to reach the last stage.

I decided to start today with exactly 100 Units (5'000 Euros) and a constant stake of 1 Unit (50 Euros) per trade. I made the necessary transactions to be ready. Yes, I wrote that the financial figures pressure me. That's true, but a professional trader has to live with this feeling. When I like to live one day from trading, I have to get used to this situacion. For this reason I decided to make a profit&loss reporting of every trade. I am just allowed to trade inside the strategy (no more free style trading anymore!). At the end of the season I will exactly know, how I performed. If I don't reach the end of season (because I blowed my bank) it would be the end of the dream. You have to accept the truth. In my life I lost too much money with betting and trading, so this is a last (hopefully successful) try to earn money.

Perhaps that was a sign today. In Switzerland the authority are changing the law about betting. In the future it will be completely legal over internet and you have not to pay taxes anymore! This is great news.

I will keep you informed about my progress as a trader and especially how my bank develops. In a time frame over seven months bad and good variance will even up. The figures will just show the truth about my trading skills. So I am extremely curious about my upcoming results.