What a disastrous day! Everything started well with a good entry at the Fognini game. He played against an unknown Chinese (Wang, world number 553), which absolved his first ATP match ever. In the first stage of the game I made an all green profit of 50 Euro. The most of it I placed on the Italian. I expected that the Chinese can't keep his level. Fabio didn't play bad, but not on the level he would need to win against a Wang on fire. Well, this can happen... I was on a "comeback trade" which often pays off.
Afterwards I was not sure if I should trade the game between Bacsinszky and Cepelova or Roger-Vasselin and Janowicz. I have decided to go for the men match. It was a rollercoaster duel and a real thriller, but my system didn't let me enter. So I didn't earn a penny despite an up and down fight. Also the WTA match brought a lot of swings. This match would be good for my strategy. In the end I just was on the wrong place. The learning I made... Watch two matches parallel (it needs concentration, but is not impossible) and enter where the opportunity appears.
The last trade was a disaster. I entered too early to lay Giorgi. I should know it, the young Italian seems a nightmare for Petkovic. It was the third defeat in this year against Camila. Like at Dubai she lost 1:6, 2:6!
Beside the too early entry, I didn't follow the stop loss. In the end I lost more than 1% of the bank. That was a lack of discipline (like the too early entry!), even when the loss was not much more than the mentioned level...
It's hard to fall back in old (bad) habits, but probably it's part of the development. At least I recognized that is too dangerous to leave the strategy path. I am sure also other traders lost with Petkovic, but probably they closed the losing position earlier than me. That's probably the biggest difference between a professional trader and me. They let the profits run and stop the falling knife.
Well, at least I stopped the habit to chase the next "best opportunity". I try to stay patient and make it better in the future...
Afterwards I was not sure if I should trade the game between Bacsinszky and Cepelova or Roger-Vasselin and Janowicz. I have decided to go for the men match. It was a rollercoaster duel and a real thriller, but my system didn't let me enter. So I didn't earn a penny despite an up and down fight. Also the WTA match brought a lot of swings. This match would be good for my strategy. In the end I just was on the wrong place. The learning I made... Watch two matches parallel (it needs concentration, but is not impossible) and enter where the opportunity appears.
Beside the too early entry, I didn't follow the stop loss. In the end I lost more than 1% of the bank. That was a lack of discipline (like the too early entry!), even when the loss was not much more than the mentioned level...
It's hard to fall back in old (bad) habits, but probably it's part of the development. At least I recognized that is too dangerous to leave the strategy path. I am sure also other traders lost with Petkovic, but probably they closed the losing position earlier than me. That's probably the biggest difference between a professional trader and me. They let the profits run and stop the falling knife.
Well, at least I stopped the habit to chase the next "best opportunity". I try to stay patient and make it better in the future...
I traded same match but with smaller loss. I was similar market like Garcia-Erakovic day before, but different outcome. You never know what is going to happen next, that's why is important always to think about potential profit and loss..
ReplyDeleteYes, you are right Goran. I was on a "tilt mode" like some months ago with Bouchard and McHale.
ReplyDeleteThe beginning of the end were the matches before. It's like losing the control. It was not chasing, but a kind of. I missed some great opportunities before and started to overtrade. Afterwards I would not trust Petkovic anymore. In my opinion she is a small female Fabio. She is an emotional player and against a very solid Giorgi it was not very probable to turn this match. Probably the (clear) defeats and bad results in the past at Linz were in hear mind. Of course Andrea turned some matches in the past, but she is not the player which brings often money with comebacks. Beside Giorgi is quiet strong indoor.
I made my lesson... take fresh air when you are in the wrong mindset. Beside I have to wait longer to enter a trade.
Keep greening
Brulati
At what odd and in what moment do you enter in Fognini-Wang match?
ReplyDeleteI can't remember exactly, but in the beginning of 2nd set. Odd was around 2.30... normally a player like Wang becomes nervous at the end of the match when the finish is near. Thanks a quick rebreak a had a good green. Unfortunately the Chinese played a fantastic match. I think it was more a good win of Wang than a bad loss of Fognini. One serving game of Fabio was a disaster but the rest was okay. Was not the Fabio on tilt mode every trader is afraid of...
Deletepetkovic -giorgi match was typical trading or just common gambling like petkovic must win?
ReplyDeleteLike I wrote I entered too early. You can lose trades likes this (than normally Giorgi doesn't play two so dominant sets against top20), but the way I did was shocking. Cause the too early entry was a gamble and that is what I don't like anymore. I was on tilt mode after a disappointing first half of the day...
DeleteI don't now you strategy but maybe you should trading more stable players for example Berdych
ReplyDeleteIn general the strategy should work with every player... I am trading the market and not the players. Of course the tennis knowledge can help you, but more important is the know how of the market development. At this point the guide of Sultan is not enough... just laying 1.20 after a set is not the solution. He was talking about value but couldn't explain it. I guess he does the right things but this knowledge is not in the guide. And here we are at the crucial point... Normally you don't find the inside knowledge about value in a guide or internet. You have to do your own research and at this topic I am working now.
DeleteMisconception that tennis knowledge is less important than knowledge of the market will cost you many months or even years
DeleteI am sure that every professional trader can work on tennis markets (after he studied the charts for a while) without much knowledge of the players. A person with a lot of knowledge of tennis and players and no know how of markets behaviour will not succeed with trading.
DeleteLook at me... with more or less the same knowledge of players I had no clue half a year ago. Now I start to understand the market movements and things are improving.
Regards, Brulati
I agree with strike here, you need to know your players inside out or you will not succeed my friend. You can't make a profit laying every 1.20 shot, you need to know how many times a player wins in straight sets as well as breaking that sample down into price ranges etc, etc. How many times the set loser puts pressure on for possible exit points in the 2nd set, I mean would you lay a player who has faced no break points in the 1st set just because he/she are 1.20 or below?
ReplyDeleteYou can't read the future from the past. I don't give so much attention to stats, every match is different.
DeleteObviously there are player which fights more (Sharapova) than others (Fognini) when the match is not going their way. In general you have to look if a 1.20 lay is value or not. There are different things to consider: Timing and if the market overreacts. Of course it helps when you know the players, but the understanding of market movements (risk/reward) is a lot more important.
I don't say that my opinion is the only right one. I guess there are different approaches to be successful. Don't worry, I know the players quiet well after one year watching almost every day 4-5 matches. I just see more added value in understanding the markets. In other case you could make straight bets or at least open a position during the match and let it run until the end.
What is exactly market movements in your strategy?
ReplyDeleteIt's a lot of work and I it's too complicated to go in the details. It's about overreaction in the market. Some people are referring to players (for example backing Nole at 2.00 against a player he normally has to beat with one leg), I have my chart data.
DeleteI know which scenario should have which fair price. For example a loss of the set with a starting odd of 2.00 or a double break and so on. If the price is not on the level it should be, I enter the market. Often the markets overreacts after a 0:6, but in the end is not rarely (especially at WTA) the same like a 6:7. You saw it today with Murray... he was trading at 1.05, that was a complete joke. If I am just trading the players, I would probably not go against him (at least not in the current form of Murray and Ferrer and on hard court).
Its all about risk and reward ratio. You never know whats inside players mind. Sometimes they fight back and sometimes not. Sometimes you can follow pattern like 3-sets and sucseed and sometimes fail. So you have to stick to few strategies and see how they develope in long term. And sometimes its good laying after early break and do nothing :)
ReplyDeleteYes, that's the point. Of course it helps to know the players, but the more important point is the risk/reward-ratio or in other words the market development (chart). Stats have not a big importance for me because every match and set is different.
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