Preview 2015

2014 was definitely not my best year. Fortunately nobody beloved died or became serious ill, but beside it was one of the most disappointing years in my life. 

• First of all I was scammed. I lost almost 60'000 Euros... It's still very difficult to understand how people (with a normal life) can do this. I learned that you can't trust (almost) nobody in sportstrading. It's a lonely business, and everybody is looking for the own advantage.
• After I sold my appartment I lived for a while with a guy (no I am not gay, was just to reduce the costs :-)). Without a reason he finished the contract by email! Really a strange guy, he is not working and sits the whole day in front of the TV. I think he lives from the social system of Switzerland. In the end I was happy to not living anymore with him, but beside the scammer he was the second big disappointment. 
• I changed the job in the beginning of the year. I worked part time as a CFO in a small company. The main reason for this change was my planned trading career. I wanted to have time for it. The company started the year with 17 people. More than the half of them quitted or were fired. The enterprise is in financial troubles and I don't expect a turnaround. 
• Trading was not succesful. Mistakes, impatience and bad money moneymanagament led to a five digit loss over the year.

I am sure that 2015 will be a better year.  I made some decicisions after the disappointing 2014. Sultan asked me a year ago why I want to be a trader with my income. I told him that I like more liberty and that I love trading. After one year I know that the price for this liberty is (too) high. If you work 50% as a normal employee, you are neither fish nor bird. My salary was inadequate and the tasks were boring. With my background I should work on management level and not as a gofer. Beside I couldn't trade as much as I wanted. Often I missed the best matches. I was impatient during the times I was trading, because I had not the time and skills like a professional. In general trading is stress, you don't have paid holidays, pension fund and you never know if you win or lose. Latest with the premium charge I wouldn't have any chance to earn what I can with a normal job.

I bought a new appartement. At the end of the year 2015 it should be finished. It gives me motivation to know that I will live again at a nice place. Even a comeback with my wife seems possible. I recognized that a relationship is hard work and probably I gave it up too early. During the desastrous year I recognized who is on my side and who is against me.

Well to come to an end of this post... I decided to stop trading as a profession. I will return to a normal job which has more advantages I thought one year ago. A lot of traders have not my possibilities on the job market. So it would be a waste of (not earned) money and time to continue with trading. Cassini works beside and is successful on the sportsmarket. I try to go on his path.

I will keep the blog, but the target is not anymore to become a professional trader. I just do it for fun and without any stress. I expect to start a new job at the beginning of April or May. So I can start the tennis season still as part time trader, but with less pressure.

Review 2014

With the Davis Cup win of Switzerland (Yes we did it!!) the tennis season is over. So, it's time to write a review of the trading year 2014. I can divide it in three stages.

First stage
The end of the year 2013 was quiet disappointing. I couldn't succeed at the Sultan's Trading Academy, and I was clueless about tennis. So I decided to switch to NBA trading. The first months of the year I traded basketball. After a promising start things turned bad in the early spring. Beside I didn't like to stay awake the whole night to watch some big guys playing with a ball. I decided to return to tennis...

Second stage
In May I was contacted by a guy. He told me that he is a professional sportstrader. At this time I was without big hope to succeed, and I was happy to meet "an expert". I trusted him and we traded together (over Facebook messenger). I transfered big money to his account for beeing part of the trading team which work with a self programmed software. Unfortunately he was just a liar, and he scammed me. I met in the wrong time, the wrong person. If I would meet him earlier or later, it would not happen. After he was not willing to pay me the money back until the beginning of November (despite he promised it like two or three times), I made a final stroke under this bad story. Shit happens in life (I am healthy, have good friends and a nice family... so the financial damage is not the end of the world), and I am sure that 2015 will bring some nice developments in my life.

Third stage
With a reader of this blog and meanwhile a good friend, I started a serious project (Ultimo) about tennis trading. We collected data, wrote a strategy guide and are improving our trading skills on the market. We are not yet over the mountain, but the progress is obvious. The discipline rised, the strategies are proven by Sultan (we have like a Sultan+ guide) and the data collection gives us a good overview about the patterns in the market. So far we documented around 200 tennis matches, more will follow in 2015.

I would say that the 2014 was a rollercoaster like you are looking for at tennis matches. Unfortunately you don't wish that in your personal life. I am sure that the worst part is over. Beside trading happened some unpleasant developments as well. I don't want to go in details, but there were serious problems at my part time job and my living situation after I sold my appartment. Both topics will be solved in 2015. More you can read in my next post, where I will write a preview for 2015.

Learning process continues...

Disappointing ATP finals find their end with the withdrawal of Roger Federer. I expected more fights and more volatility in the market. At least the tournament showed that I am on the right track. Despite the low number of momentum changes, I didn't lose much. Without the mistake, which I made in one of the first matches (Djokovic vs. Cilic), I would end in the green zone.

In general I recognized two problems: Overtrading and the lack of compounding. I added in the strategy guide a chapter about reinvestments. It's a good mix between trading save (no compounding) and aggressive. In my opinion is necessary to work with the greens. If you just leave the trade after a break, you don't make enough money to cover the matches without the expected swings.

The second problem was too much speculation. I hoped for some surprises, but they didn't come. It's a typical form of overtrading. Instead of waiting for a better scenario, I layed some big favourites. Especially in the case of Djokovic is better to wait. Even a price of 1.10 can implode after a break. Fortunately Nishikori fought back, but instead of making a huge profit (waiting for a better price), I just make some bucks. Earlier in the week I lost even more with Nole. I was confident that Cilic can give him a fight, but it was a onesided match like many more. Unfortunately the stop losses didn't work, so i lost the whole stake...

Excluded the Davis cup and some challenger tournaments the season is over. At the start of the year I hoped for the real breakthrough in 2014. To be honest, I am still waiting for it. I am happy with the development since September. With the start of the project "Ultimo" things began to go in the right direction. It's still a long way to go, but after the (scamming) lowlight in the summer, I see light at the horizon. The 2015 will be the decisive year!

Strange ATP world tour finals

The best tennis players of the world (excluded injured Rafa Nadal) are playing this week the final tournament of the year. You would expect a lot of exciting matches with close scores. So far the ATP tour finals were disappointing. It seems that the season was (too) long for some players. Cilic is completely out of shape. Raonic is serving so bad like never before this season. Murray seems tired of the last six weeks, where he played a lot of matches. Berdych had his worst match this season in the opener against Wawrinka. Stan continues with his up and down season. After a strong performance against the bird, he was looking (after a great start) awful today. Only Federer and Djokovic play on a good level. I am quiet sure that they will be in the final at the end of the week.

The mentioned matches didn't bring good trading opportunities. In such times you have to cut losses or even better to stay away of the markets. I made some mistakes, but in general I am happy about my discpline. Only once I lost more than I should. I underestimated the downfall after a break... so my stop loss orders were useless.

If the needed swings are not coming, it's important to stay patient. I guess that this week was tough for more experienced traders as well. The only halfway tradeable match was Nishikori vs. Murray. There I made a small green. It would be bigger if the Scot would win the second set.

Right now I am thinking about entries during a game. So far I executed the strategies like Sultan. He doesn't open a trade while they are playing. I recognized that there are scenarios, where you can find value during a game. For example when the loss of set is almost priced in, and a player has one or two breakpoints for a second break. Of course you lose two or three ticks when the leader breaks, but if not, you have almost unlimited upside potential. Value is value and it doesn't matter, when it occurs. If you limit your entries to the end of games, you limit your opportunities. It would be like you only buy stocks in the beginning of the day or week... in the reality you buy or sell them when the price is good.

Finally...

It was a tough (trading) year so far, but finally the hard work and suffering seem to pay off. I focused last week on the tennis tournament at Paris-Bercy. I traded almost every day and the result looks quiet promising:

 

One year ago I was a member of Sultan's Trading Academy (STA). In a review I would say, I was not ready at this point. To be honest, I would say the STA is nothing for rookies. It's hard to understand his value approach without a decent market and player knowledge. It can open doors, but you should not be disappointed, when you don't succeed. It needs a lot of hard work and own reasearch to make the breaktrough.

Unfortunately I met in the spring 2014 the wrong person. Instead of hard work (I do now) I thought there is a free lunch. In the end I had to recognize that I was a victim of a big fraud. If you like to succeed, you have to do your own research. Since two months I work with a partner in a serious project (http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/2014/09/project-ultimo.html).

We recognized that the Sultan strategies are a really good base. Actually I didn't want to use them anymore because I was not successful. Our analysis showed that I failed mainly because of the lack of market knowledge. Unfortunately this part is not that well described in the guide.

What did we do? We implemented a huge database with different information about price levels, scenarios and outcomes. Now value seems more "visible". We know the situations which have a good risk-/reward ratio. Beside we added some new strategies to the package of Sultan. All together we are talking about 20 (Sultan has 14). In the beginning it was looking like an overkill, but now it's getting more and more clear when you have to execute which one.

All in all I am very happy with the progress. The profit of 56 Euros seems not that much. Like some readers supposed I lowered my stakes. Before I worked with ten time bigger stakes and the "business model" shows that factor 100 is possible in the long term. How sounds 5'635 Euro profit in just one week?! I would say fantastic!

What are the next steps? We are implementing a trading controlling to improve our trading skills. In the end it's (almost) all about experience. The professionals are talking about 10'000 hours on the ladders to have the necessary knowledge to succeed. I feel more and more that this is true. Every week my confidence is rising. Beside the controlling we will concretise the strategy guide. Here I see the biggest lack of Sultan's trading guide. He is referring to value, but the description of the most common scenarios is completely missing. For him this is not a problem (because is in his mind), but for a third party it's evident.

Until the end of the year I will keep the low stakes. I look forward to the next season. First time I feel really ready for it. Perhaps there is one exception... unfortunately of all things I am a bit afraid of ATP Grand Slam tournaments. With five setters I don't have much experience. Perhaps I will focus at the Aussie Open at the WTA competition until I feel more confident with five set matches.

Until then there is much time to go with some highlights: ATP World tour finals, Fed Cup final and Davis Cup final between France and Switzerland.

Where is the edge?

This is the 100th post of the year! Time for a review? Not yet, I will wait until the end of the year. There are still two months to go, one of them with some tennis highlights. Especially for Switzerland and Roger Federer will come interesting weeks. Can he be the oldest number 1 ever? Will Switzerland win the Davis Cup for the first time?

In the last weeks of the tennis year I will work on the strategies. There are still some issues with a bad risk-/reward ratio I have to figure out. Lately I started to accept losing trades. I stopped to hope for a turnaround. The word "hope" doesn't exist anymore in my trading vocabulary. In the book "trading in the zone" was mentioned the fear of losing a trade. In the past I often lost more than I should because I was afraid to exit with a negative result. Now I can close a trade (normally after the first set), and I am not interested anymore in the final outcome of the tennis match. At least not, when there is not a new trading opportunity.

I am still searching for the edge. I think this is the hardest part to become a professional trader. Sultan changed his strategies, and after a while he became successful. I tried his approach, but it didn't work for me. Probably his (biggest) edge is the good feeling for tennis matches. I am looking for a strategy where I can trade more the charts (market) than the players. In the end it's probably a mix of both. The game selection should be part of the trades, but in general the strategy should work without a "crystal ball". If the hit rate is "only" based on a good selection of the games, the variance can be huge. The best tipsters have bad runs and latest with the premium charge, a system without a real edge will not work anymore. The best tipster can't beat a 60% disadvantage...

Until the strategies are stable, I will not document my trades at mybetlog.com. The following weeks are good to make a fine tuning of the approach. At this stage I can trade with small amounts. The crucial point is the risk-/reward-ratio. If a hit rate of 30-40% it's enough to make profit, the pressure is a lot smaller than with a need of 80%. At this point I am working at the moment.

Trading in the zone

This weekend I read the book "trading in the zone". To be honest, I think it would be possible to write the book with less pages. It's not a bad one, but some chapters are really hard to read. Especially the chapter 10 "the impact of beliefs on trading" is a bit philosophical. In general I like the ideas and you can summarize it to this facts (you find on page 185):

1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.

Some readers of this blog already mentioned it. First of all I have to proof my edge. So far it's missing. I just guessed that my strategies work. The author suggests a risk-to-reward of at least 3, which means you are only risking one dollar for every three dollars of profit potential. I don't know if it works similar at sports trading, but it seems an issue I have to consider. At the moment I probably don't reach this value. If I take a look at Sultan's figures, he makes big profits despite a "low" strike rate of 40%. That's a sign, that he also works with high risk-to-reward-ratios.

I recognized while reading the book that I predefine my risk, but I am not willing to accept it. That's a clear sign of overstaking. I can remember when Sultan lowered his stakes. Suddenly his results started to improve. He became self confident because he identified a real edge. After some months of being profitable he raised his stakes and it still worked.

After reading the book, I know that is not enough to halve the stakes. I have to test the strategies with amounts which really don't hurt. Only with the proof that there is a real edge, I can trade with the self confidence you need to be successful.

Mark Douglas, the author of the book, also mentioned that you have to set small targets. He wanted to run five miles, but had no chance in the beginning. So he started with smaller stages. I will do the same. The only target for this year is to test the strategies with small amounts. Instead of 1% of the capital per trade, I will lower it to 0.1%. So it's quiet easy to scale up the results to see, where I would land with normal staking.

Let's set back the clocks...

Some readers already mentioned it. My mindset is not at the level it should be. In comparison to my bank the staking is correct. I don't risk more than 1% per trade. So far so good, but probably my bank is too big for my trading skills and especially my lack of discipline.

I decided to halve my liabilities for the moment. It takes away some stress, and I can do more mistakes (they are normal at this stage of learning) for a smaller loss. One reader was right, I pressured myself too much because I lost money with the scam. I have to split these two issues. It's difficult, but is the only way to get my focus back.

Beside I will stick to same strategies for a longer time. Before there were still too much adjustments, and the results have not much significance. Now we are on a level which seems quiet stable. Caan wrote some months ago about different trading styles: http://caanberry.com/trading-personalities-ascot-on-betfair/

I recognized that I am more the short term trader. Scalping some ticks here and there fits my personality better than going for (big) swings. I tried this already at Sultan's trading academy and it didn't work for me. Lately I put some scalping greens on expected swings. In the most cases i reduced the profit... 

I will set the profit&loss of mybetlog to zero again. The clocks have a new start. The last weeks of the season should help to find some routine with the strategies, the discipline and the trading in general. Small things like a good preparation of the day, can make the difference. If everything works fine, I will rise the stakes again for the season 2015.

Petkovic: She did it again...

A new strategy is born: Never trust Andrea Petkovic. Last time I made a terrible trade: http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/2014/10/bad-habits-are-still-here.html

Today I didn't enter the market. To be honest, I was not on the tennis ladders today. The early games didn't fascinate me for different reasons (low liquidity, service battle, no good TV coverage). So I took a look at soccer and found an interesting match: Brazil against Japan. I couldn't resist and made a trade. It was looking well until the last minutes... I ended in a medium size red instead of a big green. Yes, let's call it indiscipline again or boredom. At least I saw a Neymar which played in beast mode. He scored all (four) goals and could make even six or seven! Amazing performance... if he would stop to simulate and complaining all the time, I would see him (almost) at the same level like Ronaldo and Messi.

With this loss I was not in the right mood to return to the tennis ladders. I watched some soccer games for fun and recovered with small bets around 2/3 of the amount I lost with Brazil.

What should I learn out of  this? First it's the work and then the pleasure. It's not always fun to watch tennis (especially with a small bet365 picture), but if I want to be a professional trader I have to be on the ladders with average matches. It's not every day a Djokovic vs. Federer spectacle. 

I ordered the book "trading in the zone" like I reader of my blog suggested. I hope I will receive it soon. It should help me to improve my discipline. I wrote in the comment that I already have a better level than before. Actually was not difficult to improve from nothing... :-)  Beside I have no winner mentality. How I read in the summary, this topic is also addressed in the book.

Next days (Wednesday and Thursday) I will be back on the tennis ladders. I am quiet motivated after the day I missed. Sometimes it's good to take a break... better would be a real free day and not one with soccer gambling. :-) 

Soccer is (not) made for trading!

In the last seven days I made a profit of 324.51 Euro. Actually I should be happy, but I am not. How you can see at the printscreen below all the green came from soccer. What's wrong about it?

Football bets are a hobby for me, it's just gambling. There is no real system behind the profit. It's a bit of luck and game reading, nothing more. In my opinion it's almost impossible to make sustainable money with soccer. There are a lot of betting disadvantages. First of all the odds react abruptly. When a goal is scored, we see a huge movement. The referee has a big influence with (red) cards and penalties, which can affect the trade in a negative way. Beside there are less swings. Often the time clock is running against you (for example if you need a goal). In the end the liquidity not often reaches the level of big tennis matches. That's the reason why I am not really interested to become a soccer trader. I just bet it for having an additional excitement while watching a football match.

My target is still to become a tennis trader, but the figures are looking disappointing so far. Is it alarming? I can give an answer with two letters: No! First of all the sample is too small. Two or three good trades, and I will return in the green zone. Second I made some terrible mistakes, especially the Petkovic trade was weak. Beside the strategies are not yet at the final stage. Two or three bets I would win with the last corrections we made. Today's trade (Lopez) was a clear "no bet-situation", and I should not enter the market, at least not so early. I made the necessary corrections in the strategy guide. In comparison to the Petkovic trade I could reduce the loss with tighter money management.

In Switzerland an apprenticeship has normally a duration of three years. I have to compare it with a serious education, but without a teacher. It takes time, and the negative happenings will help to improve the strategies and my trading behavior. The financial figures are not the most important for the moment. When we continue with the hard work, the good results will come for sure. Perhaps it will take another half year or more, but the direction seems okay.

Next week we will start a serious controlling of the executed trades. At the moment it's just a reporting of the financial outcome and a small comment of the trade. In the future we will have exact numbers which strategy is the most successful and where we have to make adjustments.

Small recovery

Since the the disastrous trade of Petkovic (see at my last post) I could recover a bit. Today was a decent day with a highlight trade of Ferrer against Murray. How in the hell Murray could be 1.05 favorite after he won the first set against the "never give up Ferru"?! Normally value is not that obvious like here, nevertheless I would say my strategies start to work if I am disciplined.

In the comment section we had a discussion what is more important, the knowledge of the players or the markets. I am 100% sure that a decent professional trader (no matter what he trades) will make money with tennis, even when he doesn't know the players. Probably it takes a bit of time to learn the markets, but he/she will succeed. Actually good knowledge of the men and women on the tennis tour can be a burden as well. Who in the hell is going against Djokovic or Nadal? I have not a proof, but I am quiet sure that low lays against the very best ones often pay off. I don't say that is bad to know the players, but if you like to read from the past the future, it can't work in my opinion. Goran noted it correctly, it's all about risk-/reward ratio and not about player's name.

Back to my results... how you can see below, it takes some time to recover the loss of the Petkovic trade. To be honest, it's not very meaningful after 20 trades, but it gives an indicator what I have to improve.

My problem is obvious when you take a look at the numbers. The losses are big and the profits small. Some of the winning trades are scratches, so the real average would be slightly higher. Beside the average loss would be smaller without the Petkovic trade. Nevertheless I can't be happy and that's an alert sign. The strike rate (77%) is around the expectations, but the win-/loss ratio is with not even 15% a real problem which has to be addressed.

One reason for it, it's the bad variance. I had 3-4 trades which would generate good greens with a different outcome (for example Fabio Fognini or Rafael Nadal). Here I can't do much, it's just bad luck which will be offset in the midterm view.

Another problem is the second stage of the trade. Instead of compounding the profits, I lose the profit with too risky entries. I trust too much the favorites - here we are back to the topic I wrote about before - instead of trading the market.

The last problem is a common one which everybody knows. I close green trades too early and let the red positions too long run. It should be exactly the opposite way. It's difficult to change this behavior. The only way you can manage it is to define entry- and exit levels before the match starts. I don't like to make a classical stop loss during the trade. In my opinion it works better to lower your initial stake and accept the full loss. I would say it's a personal preference, but I like to have a (small) chance to make profit with a bad looking position. In the opposite case (let the greens run), you need a clear plan when you hedge which amount. If you don't decide it before you open the position, your will be driven by emotions...

Bad habits are still here...

What a disastrous day! Everything started well with a good entry at the Fognini game. He played against an unknown Chinese (Wang, world number 553), which absolved his first ATP match ever. In the first stage of the game I made an all green profit of 50 Euro. The most of it I placed on the Italian. I expected that the Chinese can't keep his level. Fabio didn't play bad, but not on the level he would need to win against a Wang on fire. Well, this can happen... I was on a "comeback trade" which often pays off.

Afterwards I was not sure if I should trade the game between Bacsinszky and Cepelova or Roger-Vasselin and Janowicz. I have decided to go for the men match. It was a rollercoaster duel and a real thriller, but my system didn't let me enter. So I didn't earn a penny despite an up and down fight. Also the WTA match brought a lot of swings. This match would be good for my strategy. In the end I just was on the wrong place. The learning I made... Watch two matches parallel (it needs concentration, but is not impossible) and enter where the opportunity appears.

The last trade was a disaster. I entered too early to lay Giorgi. I should know it, the young Italian seems a nightmare for Petkovic. It was the third defeat in this year against Camila. Like at Dubai she lost 1:6, 2:6!

Beside the too early entry, I didn't follow the stop loss. In the end I lost more than 1% of the bank. That was a lack of discipline (like the too early entry!), even when the loss was not much more than the mentioned level...

It's hard to fall back in old (bad) habits, but probably it's part of  the development. At least I recognized that is too dangerous to leave the strategy path. I am sure also other traders lost with Petkovic, but probably they closed the losing position earlier than me. That's probably the biggest difference between a professional trader and me. They let the profits run and stop the falling knife. 

Well, at least I stopped the habit to chase the next "best opportunity". I try to stay patient and make it better in the future...

It's a long way to go...

Since years I attempt to unlock the secrets of sports trading. Now I start to recognize that I didn't work enough dedicated in the past. I wanted to take a short cut. There are no crash courses to become a trader. Perhaps professionals like Sultan or Caan can give you an idea, but in the end your are alone at the ladders. There is no free lunch, it's hard work to become a successful trader. It's a competition against people which have the same target (making money with trading) and Betfair with high commissions. How many traders are successful? I would say 0.1% will reach the super premium charge and everybody likes to make it so far. Obviously not the extra commission is the goal, but the profit you need to reach this level.

With my partner together, I am developing a huge database. That's the only way to understand the markets and find patterns. It's not about players, it's about charts and probabilities. It's still missing the financial breakthrough, but I am convinced that it's just bad variance at the moment. Sustainable profits are (hopefully) only a matter of time. I recognized that the strategies work in the most situations. I need good trades which offset the worst case scenarios that you can't avoid. If I reach this target, the average trades will stay as a profit.

I lost money at Betfair before (over years...), afterwards I was scammed. It needs time to find trust again. As a consequence I trade too cautious. Often I miss good opportunities. I hope that the database will help to bring back the self confidence. It's not good to be worried to lose (more) money. With this attitude you can't win. You have to be positive. At the program "Traders millions by the minute" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07XwNQrFd50) was a black guy... he made one trade in a week. At the moment I feel a bit like him. :-) It's the opposite of overtrading, and it's not good neither.

At least I know at which point I have to work. It's a psychological one: "afraid to lose". I have some ideas how I can solve this problem. I will reduce the stakes for the moment and will not focus anymore on the worst case. It's allowed to take some risks...

Tomorrow is the final day of different tennis tournaments. I will take a look if I see some opportunities. If not the next ones will come for sure following week with the big tournament at Shanghai. The nice thing with tennis is the fact, that the next big swing game will come sooner rather than later.

Small adjustments

The last two days were a rollercoaster. After a disastrous trade of Maria Sharapova, I lost a bit of trust. A bit later I recognized that a bad scenario can be a chance as well. This match showed that there are some small lacks in the strategies. With a light correction I made afterwards, I would not even lose the half amount. Beside it's a psychological aspect to close a trade too early. In the end Masha won (I was on a lay position), but in the second set she had to fight really hard. It would be enough time to turn the red position in a profit or at least to cut the loss.

Today I just made one trade. It showed that the strategies work well. Even when a match is quiet one sided - obviously traders like swings - it's possible to make a profit. Despite the financial result of the first five days with the new strategies are not looking impressive, I am happy with the progress.

One of the problems is the ratio between average profit (15.53 Euros) and loss (-39.54). Is nothing to be concerned about, but I have to keep an eye on it. If the situation will not improve, the strategies need more adjustments. For the moment I think it's just bad variance. There were two matches (both of them with Andy Murray) with good swings which I didn't trade well. So it seems more a problem of my trading skills than of the strategy. With the strike rate (70%) I am more or less happy. A value of 80% is the target, but 70% is not an alarming value. Beside the sample is too small to make any conclusions.

I often read that you need around 10'000 hours on the ladders to become a master. Here you find a good article about it: http://sportstradinglife.com/2013/12/what-is-the-secret-to-winning-on-betfair/

It's still a long way to go, but things are improving. After the first shock of being scammed, I am back on the right track. Summarized the above mentioned link tells us: The secret to winning on Betfair is Patience, Discipline and Dedication. Overall, this equates to “bloody hard work”. You might find it odd that “having a winning strategy” is not listed in there. But then again, when has making money ever been easy?

A small setback

The project "Ultimo" accelerates more and more. Thanks the great IT knowledge of my partner, we are capable to collect a lot more data in a shorter time frame. Today we could add around ten more matches to the database. In the next step we will analyze all data and compare them with the strategies (backtesting).

I had not the best trading day. I started with Garcia-Lopez against Djokovic. Despite Novak was not playing his best match (especially in the beginning) the Spaniard had no chance. He lost 2:6, 1:6. That was disappointing after the great fight he gave Nole some months ago at Monte Carlo. I lost 20 Euros...

Afterwards I traded Rafa against Gasquet. The ATP tour comeback of Nadal was impressive. I could manage a small green in the first set. If Richard could give a harder fight in the second set, the profit would be nice. In the end I made a profit of around 20 Euros, so I was breakeven at lunch time.

In the afternoon we saw a typical Murray game with a slow start and a great comeback. That's (normally) a good scenario for a trader. My entry worked quiet well, but I was not capable to ride the swings as good as possible. I made a profit of 15 Euros.

The last game I traded was Gulbis vs. Fognini. I expected a match with a lot of emotions and complaining. The Latvian was so strong (at serve) that the meeting was too onesided to inflame the temperament of these two players. Unfortunately I made a mistake and opened my position too late in the first set. I started the 2nd set with a red position and was basically betting on Fabio. Perhaps he was even value at almost 10, but I didn't go with my gut feeling. Instead of cutting the loss, I hoped for a turnaround. In the end the loss was bigger than it should be. Thanks to an adequate money management nothing serious happened. Since the start I am still in profit (see chart below).

Like I wrote in the last post, a swallow doesn't make a spring. Today I had to recognize that I am definitely not over the mountain yet. I take the good things out of this day. We collected a lot data for the project "Ultimo", and beside I could improve the strategies.

Tomorrow I will not trade much, because I have to work in my regular job. The next action day will be at Thursday. I look forward to return in the green zone. Keep greening, traders!    

Some interesting figures...

Once again I like to refer to the 5 Stages of Betfair Trading: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?1589-The-5-Stages-To-Betfair-Trading

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.
 
You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 ticks and weeks where you lose 100 ticks - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

This lasts about 6 months.

I reached the stage "Conscious Competence". I believe in my strategies and most of the time I trade around breakeven. Probably even above a neutral result, but one swallow doesn't make a spring! So I like to keep the euphoria low.

I started to report my trades with the tool Sultan mentioned at his blog. It's called MyBetLog: http://www.mybetlog.com/

It seems that the profits of Sultan are real. It would be difficult to fake these charts. Nevertheless I would enjoy a bit more transparency. Why hiding the most interesting (the numbers)?! He mentioned that premium charge is on his way. So it's quiet easy to estimate the numbers. I would guess, that he earns in an average month high four digit or low five digit numbers (in pounds). Congratulations!

Mybetlog is really a nice tool. You just have to download your betfair data, and the charts are created with one or two clicks:

In the last two days I made four trades, all of them were successful. How you can see, I have a different approach than Sultan. Well, the sample of data it's small, but with my strategy the strike rate will be higher than the 40% of him. It doesn't mean that my one is better. It's just to show that different ways leads to Rome...

Despite the fact that I made a good green, I am not completely happy with my trading. The first stage of the match (http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/2014/09/three-stage-model.html) was quiet okay. There is still some space for improvement, but I executed the strategies correct. With the second part of the trade I was not happy. I hedged at wrong moments and I didn't trade the swings like I should. The matches of Kerber (price went from 1.03 to over 2.00) and Murray (price went from 50 to 1) brought great scenarios for a decent profit. Unfortunately I didn't do much out of these opportunities.

At least it was a helpful lesson. It was not that hard like the one of the scammer, but with a better swing trading I could make a lot more profit. I made some small adjustments which will bring (hopefully) better results in the future. I am sure that I need these "jackpot trades" to cover the losses which will come for sure. 4-0 it's a nice run, but a strike rate of 80% it's unfortunately more realistic than one of 100%. Nevertheless I hope that the first loss will not come so quick...

14'415 Euro is the predicted profit of 1'000 markets. This is probably around the number of trades, I can handle (at most) in a year. For me this target seems quiet realistic. Like I wrote some days ago, I like to work as a part time trader in 2015. To go full time I need at least three times higher numbers. If the strategies work that step seems not that difficult, it's just about increasing the stakes. The liquidity of Betfair markets gives a potential of factor 10 or higher (at bigger tournaments). The business plan is looking promising. The project "Ultimo" is on the right track!

(Almost) same result, but different profit!

Some months ago Petra Kvitova and Eugenie Bouchard played the Wimbledon final. I traded this match and was quiet sure that the Canadian can give at least a great fight. In the end she lost 3:6, 0:6! For me this scenario was a Titanic. I made everything wrong I could do. Wrong entry point, no money management (I lost 80% of my bank) and no stop loss. Of course the match was not a trader's dream, but a professional would not lose more than 1-2% of his account.

Today Kvitova and Bouchard met again in a WTA final. They played at Wuhan, China. Again I saw a decent value at the Canadian. Unfortunately a déja vu happened. She was outplayed and lost 3:6, 4:6. The result is looking closer than the match was. Kvitova started both sets with an early break and was always in control.

Nevertheless I was capable to manage a small profit. Two months ago I lost around one grand, and today with the more or less same scenario I won around 20 Euro. Things are changing to the good!

I am not over the mountain yet, but trading really starts to improve. If you are capable to make profit in a quiet bad scenario, you are on the right track.

I am really motivated for the last quarter of  the tennis season 2014. Thanks to the project "Ultimo" future is looking bright. Obviously the 58'000 Euro loss still hurts, but it's the past and I try to ignore everything about this story. I can't change it anymore. I live in the present and in the future. I can say once again: Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail better. 

Traders behaviour

Lately a lot of traders are talking about the show "Traders: Million by the minute". The two episodes you can find on the blog of Caan Berry, one of my favorite professional traders: http://caanberry.com/traders-behaviour/

Sultan already quoted one of the most important sentence a successful trader told: "Most traders who do give up, probably don't give it as much (hard work) as those that don't (give up)". It's the same thing I always mention with my favorite quote of Samuel Beckett: Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.

Beside a sustainable loser mentioned that trading is what he likes to do. Despite he earned good money before at another job. It's definitely not good to lose money, but if you can make a decent income it's fine, even if it's lower than in a regular job. One year ago I earned a five digits number a month (in Euro), but I was not happy. I wanted a new challenge, and I found it with sportstrading. It's not the money which makes you happy, it's what you are doing. Obviously it feels better when your income is high. In general I prefer a smaller income with something I like to do in comparison to a higher income in a job I don't like. In the end your happiness will help you to achieve good results.

Never it's fallen a masterpiece from sky. It needs time to learn the markets and yourself. Caan wrote about it in the last article. I learned about myself that I couldn't accept losses. After a bad trade I started to chase. Normally the things started to get worse. Like at the stock exchange, trading is not a one way street. Even the best traders have losing bets and bad periods. You can't lose the focus on the long term, in other case you will fail. I tightened my money management and made the strategies more conservative. 

With the mentioned corrections I act calmer at the ladders. A 1% capital loss per trade is acceptable, and the feeling of chasing is gone. Beside the more conservative strategies help me to act patient. Obviously I miss the one and other opportunity, but it helps me to control my emotions. The Sultan strategy guide didn't fit my taste 100%, because it allows you to enter in lot of scenarios. On the other hand the approach is really tight in closing red trades. I don't blame Sultan, the strategy works for him. What I like to say, every trader has to find his own style. It has to fit your character. I learned about myself that I need more saftety barriers to control my emotions. 

In summary I would say that is important to work hard to succeed. Only a lot of hours on the ladders will help to become successful. Like learning drive a car some of us needs more lessons than others. If you have a lot of talent, you are lucky. If not you have to work even harder (It's looking like that I am one of this category). Beside it helps you if you don't see trading just as a job. If you are not really happy with doing it, I would suggest to apply for "regular job". It's less stressful and normally easier to learn. Like I wrote above, only copy&paste of strategies doesn't work. You have to go your own way and that is quiet hard. Obviously some professional traders like Caan or Sultan can give you some ideas, but in the end you have to learn it on your own because the trading style has to fit your personality!

Much wind for nothing...

Serena Williams lost her third match in a row against Alizet Cornet! In the beginning she seemed in control of everything, but suddenly things slipped away. The end of the match was quiet strange. She made another break (it was a break festival) and took a medical timeout. First the doctor measured fever, afterwards blood pressure! The market reacted crazy... 1.01 up to 2.00 and back again. Nobody knew what's going on. In the end, all was for nothing, because the bets were voided. I was on a winning position, so it's a bit frustrating, but next time I could be on the other side.

In general the paper testing was promising. The hitting rate was probably above the average (thanks to the upsets), but even with a lower winning percentage the strategies should work. The risk-/reward ratio seems okay now. After I reached the low with being scammed a month ago, things start to improve again. It's important to take step after step now. Obviously it takes months or even years to recover the financial loss. At the moment I don't think in financial targets. If the strategies work, I can scale them up and rise the profits.

Next two months I will test the strategies and collect more data. In 2015 I will continue as a part time trader. Beside I work 50% in a regular job to have the financial security. The target is to make my first (!) ever positive year on the betting markets. If I compare my mindset to earlier times, it's like day and night. I don't trade anymore the the players, I trade the market. In 2016 I like to go full time. Until then should it be possible to make as a trader the same income like as a part time employee.

Three stage model

Lately I read different strategy guides. For my taste they were too general or the structure didn't fit my taste. It's really difficult to write a good strategy book.

I recognized that copy & paste doesn't work at all. Other guides can just be an input for a brainstorming. It's really difficult to implement a logical structure. In my opinion that's the key for the success. I don't want to go in the details, but I like to summarize my approach.

In the first stage of a trade I am looking for a low volatility in the market. Like Caan wrote some days ago, it's really important to find a good risk/reward-ratio (http://caanberry.com/risk-reward-ratio). In the past I made the mistake to enter the market too early or too late. Sometimes the market was still too nervous, and on the other hand I missed a good lay opportunity since the start. You can find much overpriced favorites. Today you could see this fact with Wozniacki, Cornet and Suarez. In the end all of them won, but they had to fight hard despite their start prices were 1.20 and lower... In the first stage of a trade it's all about creating an "all green book". In general I stake in the beginning of a match higher for less ticks. You don't have to win the jackpot (Yes, scammer "Ulas" with this you are right. Beside you are just pitiful. Nothing more to say, these kind of people just deserve ignorance!), normally you will not. In the first set you have to work on the base for the later stages.

If you have a green book at the end of the first set (or before), you are capable to go for the bigger swings. I look for value lays or comebacks of strong players. When you have a green book after the first set, you can back the big favourites, which lost the first set, more aggressive (for example at the beginning of the set). If you are in a losing position or just breakeven, I don't recommend this strategy. Normally the market loves the favourites too much and you normally can't find value at this time of the match. In this stage of the trade is all about compound the profit. While the first stage of the trade is more mechanical with strict rules, here you can go with your gut feeling.

Last, but not least, also the third stage of a trade is very interesting. I would call it "hail mary". At tennis matches it's quiet common that big favourites or leaders (odds < 1.05) loses or start to struggle. Often the risk/reward-ratio is brillant at the end of a match. The momentum can change really quick. If you close a trade too early, you often miss the most interesting stage of a tennis match. When I was at Sultan's trading academy, I was surprised that Sultan closes trades early and moves to the next match. Movements from 500 to 100 doesn't seem interesting, but you get a great leverage for little money.

It's still a long way to go. Trading is easier in theory than in reality, but I am sure that I am with the described three stage model on the right way. In the next step I will concretize the plan behind this approach with a data collection and suitable strategies.

Strategy development

After the scam the daily routine comes in again. Nevertheless I like to publish a comment of betfair on my blog:

"We have recently been made aware of several incidents where customers have shared their Betfair account details (including usernames and passwords) with a third party who has promised to trade on the customers’ account and generate large returns. Despite what they may claim, such third parties are not approved, endorsed or associated with Betfair in any way and typically result in the customers involved losing their money.

We would therefore like to remind all customers to keep your Betfair username and password strictly confidential and never share them with any third party. If your username and password is shared in this manner, then under our terms and conditions, Betfair will be entitled to assume that you have personally carried out the activity on your account."

Back to trading... in general I suggest to go your own way. Lately I read a lot of strategy guides. They are not bad, but trading is a personal topic. One person is more cautious than the other. This fact influences the money management and placing stop losses while trading. Beside there are technical and emotional traders. The first ones like chart analysis, the second ones prefer trading with gut feeling.

Bruce Lee combined different fighting techniques and produced a better one. This is also my approach, that's the reason for the blogs name Bruce Lay. I try to combine scalping with swing- and over value-trading. The strategies are a mix between chart analysis and gut feeling. The money management is more conservative as in the past and described in other guides. The strategy starts to fit my taste.

In summary I would say that the strategy is something individual. You can't copy and paste from another trader. You should develop your own approach. It's time consuming, but in the end you will be comfortable with it.

Next weeks the main tournaments are played in Asia. Unfortunately the matches are played very early in the morning (European time). I will try to wake up early and change my rhythm. I think this could be even harder than to improve my trading skills. :-)

Project Ultimo

Let's call this project "Ultimo". It's the last try to become a successful trader. If I am not successful until the end of year 2015 my trading career failed. What happened so far and what are the future targets? I will talk about that in this post.

In the summer 2013 I decided to become a part time trader. I started to watch tennis games and made my internet research. Amongst other I found the blog of Sultan (http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch) and TradeSharks tips (http://blog.tradesharktennis.com). Beside I still traded soccer and other sports. Around one year ago I joined Sultan's trading academy and I started to focus on tennis. Perhaps I was a bit too harsh against Sultan after I was scammed from the other guy. I would say that the price for his package was too high, but it was my own will to pay this money. I still have my doubts that he is a successful trader, but in the end it's not my business. Without any doubts, Sultan and TradeShark gave me ideas, how I can trade tennis.

During the time at Sultan's trading academy I reached stage 3 of betfair trading: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589. At this time I thought I was already at stage 4, but I was definitely not. Unfortunately not, then in other case I would not be scammed. In May, where the "professional trader" came in my life, I was struggling. With some theory of trading, faked p+l statements and a wrong identity card, he won my trust. I don't want to go again deeper in the details, in other case I have to vomit. I never before had so much disrespect for a person. At least he gave me some ideas of trading, but an internet research would be the cheaper option.

With a serious partner I started the project "Ultimo" two weeks ago. With the knowledge I acquired in the last months, I reached the level 4 of betfair trading. We are still in the beginning of the marathon, but the progress is obvious. Yesterday I traded the US Open final between Cilic and Nishikori. Despite a bad scenario for a trader (very one sided match) and some trading mistakes, I managed a small profit. Meanwhile the strategy guide contains 18 pages and is getting better and better. Beside we create a big database with price developments during the matches. Until the start of the new season we like to finish this step. Aside I start to trade with bigger stakes. We defined the money management quiet conservative, so I am not afraid of this rise. A 1% loss of the bank per trade is the worst what can happen.

The next big matches are at the upcoming weekend. The Davis Cup half final will take place. Switzerland will host Italy and Czech Republic will meet France in the other match of last four teams. Perhaps it will bring some trading opportunities. I look forward to interesting matches. Hopp Schwiiz, go for the final Roger and Stan!

Scammers

The last post brought some waves. I have to clarify some things. Sultan was not the scammer I mentioned! He sells a service (strategy guide and email support) which has his price. Everybody has to decide if it's a good deal or not. For my taste 500 pounds is too expensive. In the meantime he lowered the price, so the value could be better. I just have my doubts that he is a successful trader. There are no real proofs that he makes money with trading and why in the hell you sell your strategies to competitors?! In the beginning he told that's an exclusive offer, and now he opens the door even more. For me this is smelly, but I would not say that he is a real scammer, he just takes advantage of good marketing.

My scammer plays in another league and is a real criminal. Since more than five years he tricks people with wrong identity, fake profit & loss statements, wrong facebook profile and different neteller and probably betfair accounts. I just can warn you once again, be aware of him! Don't trust anybody which says something like this: "I am myself full time tennis trader and manage wallet for betfair customers...". If something is looking to good to be true, there is something wrong. I can't believe that this scammer is that stubborn that he tries to steal more of my money. Greed is the beginning of the end. Enough is enough! Now it's not my problem anymore, it's issue of the police. If somebody likes to play with the fire, it's his risk. I lost money, but that is still better than going in the jail or live always in the fear to be caught. That is the last posting about scamming. I am really pissed, but life and trading has to continue.

With a real partner I am working on a database and a strategy guide. Beside I will rise my stakes. I know that the readers are interested in numbers and profit & loss statements. For me was the same, when I was reading the blog of Sultan. I will let you know about my development. I will do it with excel charts. In the end you can fake them as good as betfair statements. I never will sell anything, so I think you can trust me. :-)  I have no itention to lie...

Comeback

"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better" - Stan Wawrinka tattooed this quote of Samuel Beckett on his arm. With will you can achieve a lot. "Stan the man" reached the top of the tennis world and won the Australian Open. My new slogan is the same quote.

 

Lately I learned that a printscreen it's worth nothing. You can fake it without any problems. So don't believe what you are seeing at Internet. I was a victim of a scammer which knows how to use photoshop and lightshot. At least he has a strong knowledge of trading (in theory), and I learned some new approaches. I will finish my strategy guide next days.

Yes, I failed... but Stan Wawrinka showed what is possible if you don't give up. It was a painful lesson, and my trust in people suffered.

This story has two consequences:

• I will not post anymore profit&loss statements at this blog. In the worst case a scammer misuse them. Beside these printscreens are no real proof about the performance.
• I only get in closer contact with people which shows their real face over Skype. I am interested in a real partnership.

That's it. I hope that the daily routine will start after this post. I will keep you informed about my development as a trader.

Goodbye and all the best!

Like most of the blogs also my one started with a lot of energy and suddenly it ends. At least I like to write a final post. Lately I was quiet busy with trading, and in the end I could improve a lot.

I am not interested to make money with selling some twilight services, investment opportunities or picks. I wrote a trading guide for my own use and it's not for sale!!

You should think twice (better even more!) before you buy or invest your money. Why a successful trader should sell his secrets? You are nothing more than a competitor on the same ladders! I can only give you the suggestion to make your own research. Read books about psychology of trading. Define a good money management and learn of the mistakes you do. Learn how the markets react, study charts. Only your own time on the markets helps to become a successful trader. It's like driving a car. Only time in your vehicle helps to improve your skills.

I like to thank three guys which helped me during this time. None of them want to be mentioned with name, but I am sure they know to whom I am referring. Horse, you do, right? ;-)  One could be my father, a real gentleman! Thanks for the endless discussions over skype and email. Last, but not least, my thanks to my Croatian friend from Germany. It was was an amazing time when we tried our luck with NBA. :-) 

I wish all the best to the (future) traders and be aware for what you are spending your money!

Keep greening :-)

Brulati

Small, but beautiful...

I had to recognize that it doesn't make sense to play with big money at this stage. Beside I made some changes and additions to Sultan's strategies. Like he wrote in his blog, he started with Tradesharks strategies and adjusted them to his personal taste. I did the same, and I start to feel comfortable with them. What did I change:

• I implemented more flexible exit points. 
• I go for more momentum changes (in and out).
• I enter for shorter periods.
• I make more offplay trades.

In general I made the mistake to trade the players and not the market. It's important to think in which direction it will go. You have to consider what your opponents (the other market particpants) will do. Are they overreacting? Are they right with their bets?

It works quiet well at the moment. I will slightly rise the stakes in comparison to the balance. At the moment I don't risk more than 20 Euros in a trade. If you consider this they profit you see below is not that bad...

100th post

Probably I pressured myself too much to have an excellent 100th post. I prefer to continue with normal news.

Despite I wrote my last post five weeks ago, it didn't happen that much. The meeting at Lyon was postponed, so my progress is slower than expected. That was the reason for not rising the stakes. One time I did and I lost...

I try to improve my strategies with the help of my trading friends. In theory it works, but I have still not the level for sustainable profits. At least I stopped with chasing, discipline rised and the money management is established.

I invested a big amount in a trading fonds. I am really happy with the ROI. This money will help me for my own trading career. If somebody is interested, he/she can contact me by email. I can make contact with the owner of the fonds.

In the beginning the improvement was quick, lately the whole process slowed down a bit. It's hard to become a member of the 2% successful Betfair users. It's not impossible, but I have to stay patient and continue the work with my live trading mentor.

A lot of readers asked me about my view of Sultan's Trading Academy. I wrote in the past about my time as a student and was in contact with 2-3 other members. Overall I would say that his service is okay. With the shorter timeframes he makes a step in the right direction. Before the price was too high in my opinion, because there was not a big added value anymore after 3-4 months.

I don't agree with his comparison to live mentoring. Actually I would prefer to spend an intensive day with him (10 hours à 50 pounds) for a real online support than a email based service. Nothing against this, but for my taste his answers were too much aftertiming and too general. In contrast the strategy guide is well written and a good help. I think a package with the mentioned document and one day intensive trading at his place would be the better option (at least after 2-3 weeks of email support). Beside it's a bit disappointing for me, that a so called "exclusive service" suddenly is open for everybody. In my opinion it's a bad sign when somebody sells "his secrets" to everybody...

Grass season and new approach

After a terrific French Open final we are back to the daily routine. Today the grass season started at Halle, Queen's and Birmingham. The change to a different surface it's difficult for the players and the traders as well. Less breaks bring less swings, so the strategy has to be a bit different. Beside the approach of the full time trader is not the same like the one of Sultan. I have to get used to it. Today I made some mistakes, but I also had some promising moments.

I am learning with my small bank. Sometimes it's boring. You invest eight hours or more in front of the TV and computer and in the end you make a profit of 20 to 30 Euros. In comparison to the account it's okay, but for the motivation it's not a real boost. If the strategy works with smaller amounts, it will do it as well with bigger stakes. The liquidity at tennis is really good. So the next step to more successful and enjoyable trading is a bigger bank. My player and market knowledge is quiet well now, and I only make trades when I really feel save. Of course there is still a risk to lose a trade (obvious, I have no crystal ball), but the risk/reward-ratio is a lot better than before.

The issue about a big bank you can also see here: http://www.daily25.com/. He makes enormous profits, but if you take a closer look, you recognize that he has a huge turnover. A ROI of 2.51% is nothing special, but with big stakes you can make a lot of money. Of course you need a strategy which you can scale up. The latest results are promising, but the most important step (rising stakes) is still missing.

At Thursday I will go to holidays for one week. Before and afterwards the learning process will continue. I try to gain more confidence with the new strategies. Wimbledon will be a good indicator to measure the progress. If I can make profits with a small account, I can also do it with a bigger one. At 14th of July I will travel to Lyon for an intensive trading week. Afterwards it's planned to trade with a bigger bank and higher stakes.

The next post will be the 100th! So I hope that it will be a special one... probably it will take some time until I will write it. First I will be in holidays until 20th of June, second there is not so much to write about at the moment. If there is something really interesting, I will let you know.

A review of my first half year as a (part time) trader...

The French Open is almost over. That's a good moment to think about my progress as a trader. In 2013 I started to learn the tennis markets and players. It's quiet difficult if you don't have an experienced person on your side. I decided to join Sultan's Trading Academy and TradeShark's picks.

TradeShark gave me a good overview about the Top50 players. The picks are a bit disappointed so far, but I guess that's bad variance in this year. In general the service has a good price/value-ratio for beginners or investors which are not interested to trade on their own. For more experienced traders I don't see much added value. So I will not renew my subscription next year. Paul was very helpful all the time, but I can walk on my own now.

The Sultan's Trading Academy is a bit more expensive. The trading guide is okay, but it's not giving enough inside to reach the level of a full time trader. Sultan doesn't make wrong promises (he is a honest guy!), but in the review I have to tell that he couldn't help me to reach the level I wanted. I was a bit surprised that he is not looking for for more interaction between the students. Beside he never seemed really interested if the students of the academy can succeed. At least not in my case... He helped me in the beginning, but with his email coaching it's (almost) impossible to become a successful trader. His service is too superficial (at least for me).

I was lucky to meet a full time trader some weeks ago. I wrote about it. Without his help I would trade at the moment in the best case around breakeven level. To improve more, I will visit him in France at mid of July to trade together the tournament of Hamburg.

My profits are stable now. Considering that my account is very small now (because my partner is trading with my money), I am really happy with the performance. Today I made around 10% return on capital. Once I trade with bigger bank, it's getting really interesting! The tennis markets have big liquidity, so it's no problem to rise the stakes at least by factor 10 to 20. Without taking big risks, I made today 30 Euro profit (only trading two matches). Beside my partner made me around 700 Euros with four matches.

Let's see if the progress in the second part of the year 2014 will be as good as in the first half. With the planned measures, I should be able to make a decent profit latest at US Open. Afterwards I can decide if I will start the 2015 as a full time trader.

Back on track

Like I wrote in the last post, I couldn't trade that much last days. Beside I decided to reduce my bank and act more as an investor in the project of my partner. He (still) trades a lot better than me. I prefer that he trades with my money and builds financial security for me.

At the moment I trade with a very small bank. It's good to learn the new strategies with less money. Sometimes it's hard to see that I could make with normal stakes ten times more profit, but it's okay at this moment. Today I won 30 Euro and I felt first time in my life like a trader. I was not laying or backing players, I just traded the market. I see a big step in the right direction!

Now I understand why Sultan stopped the blog. When you achieved to trade successful, it's not to say that much anymore. You can't even talk about the bets you made during a day, because you change very often the sides. Today I layed and backed Federer in the same match. In some moments there was value on Federer, on other situacions on Gulbis.

In the second week of the French Open is not that much action anymore. It's a pity that it took so much time (almost half a year) until I got a better feeling about trading. Unfortunately the grass season starts soon. It's harder to trade on quick surfaces because there are more service holds and less swings.

Beside I am sure that a big bank helps a lot to be successful. Of course the strategies will work with less money, but you will have less profit and less opportunities. My target is to build a bigger bank until US Open. Afterwards I have around two months to see if I am ready to go full time at year 2015.

Break

Tomorrow I will move in a another appartment. It will take some time until I will be back on the ladders of trading. I think the break comes to the right time. Last days were quiet hard. I lost some Euros and the real breakthrough seems more far away than I thought some days or a week ago. It was a mix between bad variance and inadequate trading. In general I am still trading too often the player and not the market. Beside I am missing some facts and take too risky trades.

For example I hoped (probably this is the right word... and the proof that it was a bad bet) for a comeback of Lopez against Young. I unterrated the fact that the Spaniard is not in his best shape. The same mistake I made with Monaco against Seppi. The Italian often plays his best tennis at the Grand Slam tournaments. The same situation with Sloan Stephens, I layed her (normally she struggles at least in one set), but at top events she seems more motivated. All the mentioned trades were no real value... I did better with the market overreactions on both sides in the Verdasco vs. Cuevas game. That was traders dream scenario. Verdasco was traded at 1.15 in the first set (!), around half an hour later Cuevas was at 1.20. In the end won the Spaniard... I have to wait for these kind of games.

The last days I watched a lot of tennis and every day had two or three really good moments. It's quet boring and needs a lot of concentration to wait for these times, but it pays off in the long term. I learned that the professionals don't take the risky trades and try to make save profit. With the green books they play the (more unsecure) value. After half a year without the big breakthrough and refering the discussions with my professional partner I am sure that I have to make some small changes in my approach.

I take the break to get a fresh mind. Beside I will write down the strategy changes I have to do. If I like to live one day of trading I need less variance. I have some ideas to reach this target. The strategies of Sultan will still be part of the new approach, but some additions have to be done...

Surprises...

What's going on at Paris? There are not even played all games of the 2nd round and a lot of favourites are already out of the tournament. The biggest surprise was definitely the loss of Serena Williams. Nothing against Muguruza (she played the match of her life so far), but what was going on with the number 1?! 2:6, 2:6 is a crazy result. Beside that shocker the defeats of Li Na, Stan Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Alizet Cornet and Kei Nishkori are looking like a childrens birthday. Other favourites were a bit "luckier", but had to fight harder than expected (for example Errani, Jankovic or Stepanek/Youzhni in the first round). It seems that the wet and cold conditions are the basis for these upsets.

Perhaps these results would help my trading approach in the past. I often layed big favourites at the start for small odds. Normally this approach doesn't pay off because it's almost impossible to find the big upsets. Beside the mentioned surprises, Ivanovic, Kvitova, Halep, Radwanska, Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic and Ferrer won quiet easy. It's just normal that people think first about the smashed 1.01 to 1.10 odds. On the other hand a huge amount of these bets are "one way tickets".

How these surprises influenced my profit&loss? To be honest, the last days could be better. I missed good opportunities. One of the reasons are the slow pictures. Unfortunately I have only TV coverage of Eurosport. I have a delay of 30 seconds and more at the internet channels. Today I was green on Serena Williams (after she reduced the gap to one break), but when I wanted to hedge the profit, she was already 0:15 down. So I waited and hoped that she will hold. She didn't and my profit was gone. It's really difficult to trade under these circumstances. Okay, there are possiblities to solve this problem (two screens for example), but I am really not happy with the TV coverage. Bet365 has no pictures at all, Tennis TV (which have at least only a delay of around 15 seconds) neither.

Beside some (good value) trades didn't go the way they do normally. It was just bad variance which happens. On the other hand I picked players (for example Lisicki) which I shouldn't. After the match I read that she was ill before the tournament... bad preconditions (beside the slow court) for a good performance.

On the other hand I missed some really great opportunities. I waited too long. Beside the slow pictures the strategies of Sultan don't allow an entry during a game. It's a save approach and I don't blame it, but you can miss value. The market often overreachts at breakpoints, so it's a good opportunity to enter. The risk/reward is huge at these moments. If the break appears, you lose some ticks (obvious), but if not, you are in a really strong position. Don't forget, the server (at least at men matches) has still the advantage on his side.

Lately I changed a bit more to "freestyle trading". Value is value, and sometimes you can't wait until the (second) break is here. Often the chance will not come again... Raonic was traded at 1.80 in the first set. That was value (was a price like he lost the first set already), but it was just available during one single game. About hedging and re-investing I talked last time. I think when I can improve the hit rate, this topic is getting less important. Profit brings profit and you will act quieter. Beside the in the last post described half stake approach helps my mind. You are not that much under pressure to close the trade too early.

Some months ago there was a discussion about hedging. In general you should only do it, when the value is gone. When you go with the favourites it's easier, often the market trusts them too much. So you will find good hedging opportunities. The other way is more difficult. It takes a perceived eternity until the market accepts the possibility for a dog win. With this knowledge you should hedge more often the favourites than the dogs. In reality are a lot more influences: gut feeling, generated profit of  the day, how many games to go and so on...

In summary I would say that trading tennis should be much more intuitive than following rules. The strategies of Sultan are a good help for beginners, but are not flexible enough. He refers in his guide to advanced trading (with less fix exits and with re-invest), I think this is more the style which makes him so successful. Now I am quiet sure that you will be less successful if you search for patterns (fix entry and exit-points). In the guide it's a lot of talk about laying low odds (mainly under 1.30), but often backing 1.80 can be value as well. No wonder that I struggled in the beginning with a very bad hitting rate. Obviously you will have a lot of losing trades, when you lay players around or under 1.30...

French Open started well...

Since I am in the new partnership (http://brucelaytrading.blogspot.ch/2014/05/partnership-in-sight.html) things are improving. I discussed my trading style with the professional trader.

• The biggest issue is the exit. I talked about it in the last post. At an even matchup, especially on clay, or at a risky score (for example 4:4) is better to hedge. Often there are more possibilites at a later stage of the match.
• You don't have to lay a big favourite at the start of a match to make decent profit. It's almost impossible to find in advance the good performing underdog(s) of the day. Beside the starting odds are normally right, especially at the duels "David vs. Goliath".
• If a big favourite is behind, don't wait too long. Often the value disappears very quickly when the "Goliath" starts to play better.
• Look for value, but don't speculate. Too often I layed a big favourite after one set to hope for a comeback of the underdog.
• I rised the stakes to around 3% of my bank. It has different advantages. First of all I don't speculate anymore. I only enter if I feel a big chance to make at least 20-25 ticks. Second even a small swing brings good profit which I can re-invest afterwards. Third the bank grows quicker (of course only if you trade successful).
• He also works with half and full stakes. To hedge the entry price it's a very good approach. I think is the better one than taking half of the full stake out if trade goes in the wrong direction.

Today I made around 100 Euro profit with tennis. The loss of 12 Euro were a (fun) outright bet on Bencic. Unfortunately her performance wasn't enough good against Venus Williams, and beside the draw was a bit unlucky for her. I am quiet happy with the result, because I managed a profit despite missing great opportunities (Stepanek, Youzhni). I was really confused with the best of five mode. The market reacts different and I was not prepared. At Youzhni match I staked too high and went out at the first point the trade was green. For Stepanek I was not prepared after I was confused with the game before.

Without much stress I could make today around 500 Euro profit. You "just" have to wait for the right opportunities. Unfortunately not all days bring so much chances like today. Because the mostly one sided games it's hard to find value at the first rounds at a Grand Slam tournament.

Beside I invested some money at the trading programme of my partner. How I heard he already doubled my initial stake. He is definitely the Novak Djokovic of traders. It's great to work together with one of the best (tennis) traders. I improved a lot in the last two weeks. Time will tell if the meeting with the professional trader was the step to level five of trading: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

The difference between a pro and me...

Today was a really tough day, not one good outcome for my professional partner and me. The big difference between us... he was able to make profit (despite our favoured players lost) and me not. I wrote a similar post some days ago about killer instinct. To be more precise, I think it's mainly a problem of hedging.

While my partner hedged his greens (Kerber, Berlocq, Garcia... all of them lost!) I was overconfident and in chasing mode with Kerber and Petkovic. Unfortunately both Germans couldn't take profit of the gained momentum and lost in straight sets against underdogs. Especially after a bad start (which I had with Seppi against Istomin) the risk to miss the hedge on the right time is big.

There are different styles of trading with green positions. I discussed this topic more than once with Sultan, but there is not one right answer. He told me that the decicion has made BEFORE the trade goes green. Unfortunately I didn't do this. I speculated that the Germans will reach the 3th set with the gained momentum. In general both ladies didn't play well, so it would be better to go the save way. Especially before a big tournament you never know if a player tanks.

If you decide to green-up but think more opportunities for swings may occur in the match, you can "re-invest" or "churn" your profit. This is more the style of my partner. There are matchups which this approach doesn't make much sense. Especially if a big favourite (for example Rafa) comes from behind, I would not expect much more swings. At a more even matchup this strategy seems better. I (almost) never saw one way traffic between two equal strong players after one reduced the gap. Normally there will be more swings...

I can remember that Sultan made a post on his blog about his small change of trading style. With bigger stakes he entered the market for shorter periods. The target was often one break and afterwards he churned the profit. I learned that the professionals normally don't go for the "jackpot". They normally don't lay 1.05 and hold the position until the end. Perhaps they do after a fantastic day, but in general they are looking for free bets or save profit. Was it save to hold profit on Petkovic and Kerber? Not really... both players are not in their very best shape. It's a different story to ride a trade of Nadal, Djokovic, Sharapova or Williams to the end (especially at big tournaments). I recognized that you can't trust too much on the momentum you see on the court (the market actually includes this). There are some exceptions when a underdog really plays well and the market is still in love with the favourite, but often the momentum change is already priced in (for example at the 4:4 score of Kerber). The situacion of Kerber was tricky... if Pliskova breaks, she is in real troubles. That happened (even when it was looking like she gained momentum before), so my good looking trade went terrible in the wrong direction. Afterwards the Czech player could serve for the match and succeed. More or less the equal situation we had with Petkovic... twice I was caught. In the way Kerber was serving during this match, I should not take this gamble.

In summary I learned today that is important to hedge more. "Let the green trades run" is only in some circumstances the right approach. In general I would say this is the case when a (big) underdog plays well and the market is still in love with the favourite or if the big player comes from behind and starts to perform. At more even matchups is better to ride the waves. Normally there is no one way traffic at these matches...

Strategies

It's a pleasure to work together with my new partner. One of the disadvantages of beeing a trader is the loneliness. You can't share the success or the mistakes during the day with another person like in a normal job. Since we trade together, it's more fun.

Beside the partnership helps to share ideas. I learned that he has different approaches, especially scalping is a big part of his strategy. I know how mighty it can be. When I heard that Djokovic is injured (against Federer at Monte Carlo) I laid him quiet big before the game. As more and more people got this information the price soared. It's all about quick data access and enter the market at points, where is not much risk (before the game, breaks, medical time outs, between the points). Unfortunately I have not the necessary equipment to make money with this way. Courtsiding and quick pictures would help. Obviously you can trade more agressive when you have the security of (quiet easy) scalping profits. Perhaps I will do this approach one day, but at the moment I have not the opportunities to do it.

The common strategies of Sultan are still working for me, but I made some small adjustments. I recognized that it's almost impossible to hit the lowest entry point (on a lay view). For example I saw today value at Benneteau (against Berlocq) after he was down 0:2 in the first set. So I laid Berlocq at 1.33. The French man didn't find his rhythm and continued to struggle until he was 1:6, 0:2 down. Now the Argentinian was traded at 1.03. What did I do? I reduced my stake after the first set and backed Berlocq at 1.11. So I reduced my possible loss to 80%. What happened? Benneteau started a great comeback and the price of his opponent soared to 2.50 (when Benneteau had two breakpoints in the 3th set). Because I reduced my stake too early (the exit point is part of the strategy), my profit was not really good after the start of the 3th set. I hedged (because I was afraid to lose... risk/reward was bad) and ended with a profit of 1.54 Euro. If I traded this matchup in a good manner I could make at least 50 Euro.

This scenario happened too often in the past. The ideas are good, but I can't cash in. When I enter the trade, it often starts bad and I have no balls to hold the position. So I reduce the stake for no value. On the other hand I am often too cautious to take opportunities because I hope for even better entry points...

I decided to turn the strategy. I only stake 1/2 when I initially enter a trade. Instead of reducing the stake (when the trade goes against me), I rise it if there is a lower entry point and I still trust the player. Thanks to the lower initial stake this "two way strategy" is possible. This approach has big advantages:

• You lose less if a player really struggles and you lose confidence (max. 50%).
• You can reduce your average entry price if the trade goes against you.
• If the the trade goes in your direction you probably trade with more balls, because the stake is smaller. It helps in the psychological part of trading.

I am quiet sure that this change will help my mind. In the end trading is a brain game, the traders with the most discipline (money management, proper execution of trades, stop losses) and "biggest balls" (staying in green trades, exit-points) are the most successful. It's like at tennis, the players with most talent, discipline (training efforts, life style) and killer instinct (playing big points, big matches) are the best ones. My biggest issue is definitely the third point... if I like to go one day fulltime I have to solve this issue!

Patience is the most important skill

In the beginning of his trading guide Sultan quoted Dr. Alexander Elder from 'Come into my Trading Room':

"Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades. Losers get high from the action; the pros look for the best odds."

To be honest, I didn't understand this sentence in the beginning. Now I do. How I wrote some days ago, I started a partnership with a professional trader which reached the premium charge of Betfair long time ago. I found out that he is cooking with water as well, but he acts a lot better in the crucial stages of a trade (mainly entry- and exit-points). It's the same thing in tennis games. Rafa and Nole are not that much better than a Top50 player, but in the most important points they can rise their level. On the other side the underdog starts to make mistakes.

Let's go in an example: Today played Ana Ivanovic vs. Serena Williams. The starting price of Serena was 1.25, pretty low in my opinion. On the other hand Williams wins this matchup on a normal day, but some months ago she lost at Australian Open even with a one set lead.

What will do the amateur? He will back Serena since the start, because he is confident that Serena will win. He risks 100 Euros for a profit of 25 Euros. After the first set is looking like an easy bet without much sweat, but Ana is a different player after the break and wins the second set with 6:3. Now the amateur gets worried, the price is already 1.40... in the end he wins the bet, but was a challenge which is not necessary.

What will do a novice? He heard about the value concept and thinks that 1.25 is quiet a low price. So he puts a lay bet since the start. With the same risk of 100 Euros, he can make a profit of 400 Euros (16 times more!). After the first set, the trade is not looking good. Half of the money is gone. Now he has different options. Let's say, he will stay in the trade (if he has balls). So, he would make a nice profit after the second set (if he hedges). The sweat is more or less the same like the amateur has, the difference is the better risk/reward-profile (because Ana was value). Instead of 25 Euros, he can win 400 Euros.

What will do the professional? He knows how strong Williams is and doesn't need the risk to see one way traffic (backing 1.25 is no option for the professional neither). He just enters when the market gives an opportunity. This can be a higher price for Williams or a very low one (for laying). After the first set he lays Williams for 1.10 (for a possible win of 1'000 Euros). If Ana would win the first set, he would enter (or wait a bit more) to back Serena. He trades the market not the players.

Like Dr. Alexander Elder said, professionals are looking for easy trades with good odds. It's quiet easy to lay Williams at 1.10. The risk/reward-profile is brilliant. If Ana wins the first set, he still can enter the market for a comeback (because Williams has the weapons to beat Ivanovic even with a set and break down).

That's just an example, but that's the reality. The professionals are patient. Before the start (especially in the case of the top players) the market is very efficient. There are barely no hidden information. During the match people start to panic, emotions are in the market. Overreactions take place. That's the paradies for the professionals because they are just waiting for this scenario. If there is no such situacion the pros are not involved. At tennis you only have to win the last point of the match. The other ones "don't count" in the end. With this knowledge the professional traders stay calm like Djokovic or Nadal and wait for the right opportunity. If there is one way traffic of the favourite they will not enter the market.

In theory it's quiet easy to trade like this. In reality it's more difficult, but is good to know that the professionals are cooking with water too. They have no crystal ball neither. :-)  My partner says that I am like Dimitrov, talented but not proven in big moments. Let's see if the Baby Federer will be one day a real Fedex...