Sunday, 5 October 2014

It's a long way to go...

Since years I attempt to unlock the secrets of sports trading. Now I start to recognize that I didn't work enough dedicated in the past. I wanted to take a short cut. There are no crash courses to become a trader. Perhaps professionals like Sultan or Caan can give you an idea, but in the end your are alone at the ladders. There is no free lunch, it's hard work to become a successful trader. It's a competition against people which have the same target (making money with trading) and Betfair with high commissions. How many traders are successful? I would say 0.1% will reach the super premium charge and everybody likes to make it so far. Obviously not the extra commission is the goal, but the profit you need to reach this level.

With my partner together, I am developing a huge database. That's the only way to understand the markets and find patterns. It's not about players, it's about charts and probabilities. It's still missing the financial breakthrough, but I am convinced that it's just bad variance at the moment. Sustainable profits are (hopefully) only a matter of time. I recognized that the strategies work in the most situations. I need good trades which offset the worst case scenarios that you can't avoid. If I reach this target, the average trades will stay as a profit.

I lost money at Betfair before (over years...), afterwards I was scammed. It needs time to find trust again. As a consequence I trade too cautious. Often I miss good opportunities. I hope that the database will help to bring back the self confidence. It's not good to be worried to lose (more) money. With this attitude you can't win. You have to be positive. At the program "Traders millions by the minute" ( was a black guy... he made one trade in a week. At the moment I feel a bit like him. :-) It's the opposite of overtrading, and it's not good neither.

At least I know at which point I have to work. It's a psychological one: "afraid to lose". I have some ideas how I can solve this problem. I will reduce the stakes for the moment and will not focus anymore on the worst case. It's allowed to take some risks...

Tomorrow is the final day of different tennis tournaments. I will take a look if I see some opportunities. If not the next ones will come for sure following week with the big tournament at Shanghai. The nice thing with tennis is the fact, that the next big swing game will come sooner rather than later.


  1. I try many years tenis trading and now for me is simple that not everyone can be trader including myself.
    Its similar like winning in lottery 1% get it and 99% not.

    One important think-- The border between betfair trading and addictive gambling could by very thin.

    1. Thanks for your feedback, piotrek. Yes, you are right. If you are looking for the real winners (full time traders), you not even find 1%.

      In comparison to the lottery, you have it in your own hands. Nevertheless is a fact that's really tough and the most people fail. That's why I call the project "Ultimo". If I will not reach the income I make in my part time job until end of 2015 I will stop it (at least as source of income).

      Yes, the border is very thin. Fortunately I stopped the bad habits with chasing and gambling. I would say it's almost impossible to blow another bank. Tight money management helps to reduce addictive gambling.