Thursday, 2 October 2014

Small adjustments

The last two days were a rollercoaster. After a disastrous trade of Maria Sharapova, I lost a bit of trust. A bit later I recognized that a bad scenario can be a chance as well. This match showed that there are some small lacks in the strategies. With a light correction I made afterwards, I would not even lose the half amount. Beside it's a psychological aspect to close a trade too early. In the end Masha won (I was on a lay position), but in the second set she had to fight really hard. It would be enough time to turn the red position in a profit or at least to cut the loss.

Today I just made one trade. It showed that the strategies work well. Even when a match is quiet one sided - obviously traders like swings - it's possible to make a profit. Despite the financial result of the first five days with the new strategies are not looking impressive, I am happy with the progress.

One of the problems is the ratio between average profit (15.53 Euros) and loss (-39.54). Is nothing to be concerned about, but I have to keep an eye on it. If the situation will not improve, the strategies need more adjustments. For the moment I think it's just bad variance. There were two matches (both of them with Andy Murray) with good swings which I didn't trade well. So it seems more a problem of my trading skills than of the strategy. With the strike rate (70%) I am more or less happy. A value of 80% is the target, but 70% is not an alarming value. Beside the sample is too small to make any conclusions.

I often read that you need around 10'000 hours on the ladders to become a master. Here you find a good article about it:

It's still a long way to go, but things are improving. After the first shock of being scammed, I am back on the right track. Summarized the above mentioned link tells us: The secret to winning on Betfair is Patience, Discipline and Dedication. Overall, this equates to “bloody hard work”. You might find it odd that “having a winning strategy” is not listed in there. But then again, when has making money ever been easy?

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