Thursday, 13 November 2014

Strange ATP world tour finals

The best tennis players of the world (excluded injured Rafa Nadal) are playing this week the final tournament of the year. You would expect a lot of exciting matches with close scores. So far the ATP tour finals were disappointing. It seems that the season was (too) long for some players. Cilic is completely out of shape. Raonic is serving so bad like never before this season. Murray seems tired of the last six weeks, where he played a lot of matches. Berdych had his worst match this season in the opener against Wawrinka. Stan continues with his up and down season. After a strong performance against the bird, he was looking (after a great start) awful today. Only Federer and Djokovic play on a good level. I am quiet sure that they will be in the final at the end of the week.

The mentioned matches didn't bring good trading opportunities. In such times you have to cut losses or even better to stay away of the markets. I made some mistakes, but in general I am happy about my discpline. Only once I lost more than I should. I underestimated the downfall after a break... so my stop loss orders were useless.

If the needed swings are not coming, it's important to stay patient. I guess that this week was tough for more experienced traders as well. The only halfway tradeable match was Nishikori vs. Murray. There I made a small green. It would be bigger if the Scot would win the second set.

Right now I am thinking about entries during a game. So far I executed the strategies like Sultan. He doesn't open a trade while they are playing. I recognized that there are scenarios, where you can find value during a game. For example when the loss of set is almost priced in, and a player has one or two breakpoints for a second break. Of course you lose two or three ticks when the leader breaks, but if not, you have almost unlimited upside potential. Value is value and it doesn't matter, when it occurs. If you limit your entries to the end of games, you limit your opportunities. It would be like you only buy stocks in the beginning of the day or week... in the reality you buy or sell them when the price is good.


  1. I some expirience that I have, entering trades during games was never really much succesful so I dont know how much can it be profitable in long term. For me entering after break (where there is decent value) is perfect timing. I agree that ATP matches this week are not very valuable and I think there was much more opportunities on challengers and ITF women tournaments...
    Looking forward to your next post...
    Cheers :-)

    1. Yes, unfortunately ATP finals were disappointing. Somehow the end was typical. My player knowledge is not enough for challengers and ITF. Probably I will take a break now and will return in the year 2015.