Another fantastic day...

The things changed dramatically in the last month. Some weeks ago I had big doubts about my future as a trader. Probably you read about my probems, I was stuck at breakeven level. Suddenly I have the right approach to trade. The slogan which brought me the success is quiet easy: "Expect the unexpected". This mindset helps a lot in trading, especially at soccer. I rised my bank around 20% in the last days, so I have now a decent buffer for a bad run.

Yesterday I wrote that I expect a 3:0 or 3:1 between Manchester City and Aston Villa. Jovetic scored the 3:0 at the 89th minute. At this moment I was big green and could lay the score for 1.17. I did this quiet big to secure the profit. I know that one swallow doesn't make the summer, but I am extremely confident that I found a system which works for me. It's still not perfect, but the general concept I like a lot.

At tennis I spotted pre game a lot of value. Almost all of "my players" won their matches or at least a set (Vinci, Giraldo, Pavlyuchenkova and Kuznetsova). Unfortunately I only placed two trades, because I was worried about a too early entry (before the start). I have to say that in general the strategy is based on inplay entries. In the last days I often missed good trades, because I hoped for an even better entry during the match. I talked about this issue with Sultan. He suggested me to enter the market, at the moment when I find value. Actually he is right, laying 1.45 at the beginning can be better value than 1.30 after one player made an (early) break. The bigger problem are the missed trades I mentioned above.

I decided to stake at least half of the whole amount at the start of the match if I find good value. With the other half I hope for an even a better price (if there is no lower price, my trade is a winner... not that bad neither :-)). If I see that the early entries are working, I can rise the stakes. Sultan prefers not to overcomplicate the things. Actually he is right, but I don't have his level to find always real value. So this way seems a good compromise for me.

Next days I can focus on tennis. There are no good soccer games until Sunday. I don't like to trade in leagues where the championship is already decided (like Germany or Italy). I will concentrate on Spain and England until the end of the season. I hate matches like AS Roma at Catania (4:1 for the home team). It's obvious that one team is not fighting anymore... so it's impossible to analyse the match in a proper way.

We are cooking...

Well, things are getting interesting. It was quiet a busy trading day. It started at 11 o'clock with Gulbis vs.  Janowicz and it's not finished yet. Ivanovic is still playing against Jovanovski. So far this game didn't bring good entry points, so I can already write this post.

I am quiet happy how things are going with the correct score market trading. Today I managed a good profit again. Manchester United won against Hull 3:1. I expected more or less this score (I favoured 3:0 and 3:1 with a small protection on 4:0). After a slow start I got the opportunity to enter the market for good value. I don't know how I will do in the future with this strategy, but I am quiet optimistic. Tomorrow Manchester City will play at home against Aston Villa. Again I expect a score in this range. Perhaps it's wise to put some security on 4:0 and 4:1, but only a small one. After Liverpool threw away a 3:0 lead, I guess City will no do the same mistake and will be happy with a "normal win" like 3:0 or 3:1.

Unfortunately I missed two of the best tennis games today. I had to change the tyres of my car, so I was exactly away when Sharapova and Fognini were playing. The comebacks of Masha are famous, I would back her for sure when she was 1:3 (or 1:4) down in the third set. Fognini was traded too low after the first set... Dog was the favourite (and won in the end), but with Fabio you always have to count on the unprobable outcome. The only constant is his bad mood on the field. This time he went too far and will be punished hard. He is a great character on tour, but now he passed a point which is not acceptable anymore.

In the evening the surprise of Thiem against Stan was the highlight. I am not that much surprised. Wawrinka is still not the player you can trust for low odds (1.17), especially not against a future topshot like his Austrian opponent. I arranged a small profit, but I didn't trade very well. In the future I will do it slightly different with such a strong underdog. I will stake lower in the beginning and will let run the trade until the end or the point I am big green. This time I reduced my stake after the first set for a small loss... Normally this approach it's okay, but with a lay since the start it's so much time left to turn the things in the right direction.

In summary I am happy how things are improving. At tennis I feel really a progress and at soccer I am on the way to develop a strategy which I am comfortable with.

At this moment Ivanovic finished her match against Jovanovski. She won in straight sets. Probably she wanted to go to bed... :-)  I am happy that I didn't enter this market. I am quiet sure that I would do it some weeks ago. Ana was traded quiet low, but now I have a better feeling for surprises. I know I will miss the one or other opportunity (like at the weekend with Klizan and Berlocq), but the most important it's the protection of the bank. At soccer I have to think about this issue... because my strategy is quiet save, my stakes are higher.

Craziest game ever?!

I saw crazy soccer in my life, but this one was probably the most curious one ever. Today played Liverpool against Crystal Palace. The Reds scored in the 53th minute the 0:3, so everything was ready for a great finish to improve the goal difference in the championship race against Manchester City (and Chelsea). They were so dominant, it was just a question of time until Liverpool scores the 0:4, 0:5 or 0:6. Crystal Palace was dead and not at all interested in this match. Out of the blue the home team scored in the 79th minute 1:3. Nothing happend, just a small accident... Everybody thougt at this moment that Pool will win 1:4 or 1:4, in the worst case 1:3. Again counterattack and boom, there was the 2:3!! How this can happen?! At this point the Reds were still winning, so not so much happened. To close the goal difference gap to Manchester City was just a dream, so a win it's okay as well. Now the nerves were gone... and the equalizer was not such a surprise anymore. Was the logical consequence.

The 3:3 was traded for 1'000! Unfortunately the 0:3 came too early for me (53th minute), so I had to secure some higher scores for Liverpool. In the end these insurances destroyed my profit (and I lost a bit), but could be worse when there would be a 3:4 or 4:3. This match showed that soccer sometimes brings the crazier swings than tennis.

Despite or let's better say thanks to these kind of matches the correct score market can be really interesting. Today I lost my trade, but as a learning I will secure in the future these very unprobable scores for 1-2 Euros (would be enough to make a huge win today).

At tennis I just traded one game. Like (almost) you can trust "never giving up" Hewitt. Like I expected he won a set against Giraldo. Leyton is just a great sportsman. In earlier days I expected that he will be more successful than Federer. He was the youngest number 1 ever. Even when he "only" won two Grand Slam titles, he is one of the biggest fighter this game ever saw. I hope that he will part of the ATP tour some years more.

Tomorrow Thiem will play against Stan Wawrinka. In my eyes we can expect a really interesting battle. For odds around 1.17 Stan is a lay in my opinion... I know Stanimal just won Monte Carlo, but in my opinion he is still not the guy you can trust for this kind of odds against a rising star.

 

Correct score market

Some days ago I wrote that soccer is not made for trading. In general I have still this opinion, but today I found decent value at the corret score market. It seems that most traders expect a lot of goals when big teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid or Chelsea are playing (at home). Often the reality is different... in general I guess that there is more value at the under scores. I think it's because most bettors are afraid of the suspended sign. Beside football is about scoring, so the natural instinct tells us to go for the goals.

So far so good... During the game I traded, I reognized that laying the actual score and backing the unprobable outcomes (like 2:2 or 1:2 Valencia) had huge value. To be honest, in my past I lost a lot of bets with laying unprobable scores. A lot of newbies are looking for an easy win (Valencia 3:1 doesn't seem very probable,  that's true... but for 1.05 I would not back this result!), so they lay without thinking about the value. 1:3 for Valencia was traded at 20 after they scored the 1:2. I tell you, the counterattacks were really dangerous... so I was surprised to find such an odd.

I think I found a way for trading (and not betting) soccer. The correct score market it's quiet a good place to seek for value. You can react without any problems before and after a goal. It's easier as the match market (1X2) or the over/under because there you need a specific outcome. In my opinion you have more options to react inplay at the correct score market. Probably it's similar to horse trading, there are also a lot of possible outcomes (not only two or three like at the mentioned soccer markets).

Tennis is still my main interest. I feel a slightly progress. I am not yet a "chess player" which thinks four, five or even more steps ahead. If you can do this, you will succeed. Let's make an example. Angie Kerber had a nightmare start against Garcia, what I actually expected. To be honest I didn't lay her at the start, because I am not a fan of laying odds over 1.50. If the trade goes against me, it's pretty costly for a small profit. You can discuss about this approach, because value it's value... It's just my trading style. If Kerber would be ten ticks lower (unfortunately the price rised before the game) I would do it. So far so good... when she was 0:4 down, Garcia was traded under 1.45. That was the price you could more or less expect after she won the first set (if Kerber would not lose 0:6... but even in this case she would not be traded under 1.30). At this point was possible to make a "free bet" on Kerber until the end of the first set if you would think some steps ahead... Unfortunately I didn't take the opportunity. Kerber made three games in a row and the price of Garcia jumped again over 2.50. Without many risk (at most 15 Ticks... in a very bad case) you could make over 100 Ticks or more if Angie would win the first set... that's good trading. In the end, Garcia won the first set (6:3) and she was trading exactly at 1.45...

I layed Garcia too late and when Kerber retired I lost the whole stake. I would not say that it was a really poor trade, but after she took a medical time out (MTO) a too risky one. It's the second time in two weeks I lost the whole stake because of a retirment. Both times the players had a treatment before (both were Germans... I hope it was just random and has no meaning :-)). It's a learning for the future... if "my player" takes a MTO I will close the trade or at least reduce the stake.

In general I had a good day. I am more comfortable with the players. Not with all (for sure), but at a bigger tournament it's easier for me. The top50 of ATP and WTA players I know now quiet well and in Madrid are not so much more. :-)  Beside I am not mad anymore, when I miss a surprise. Okay, Berdych (against Berlocq) and Fognini (against Klizan) lost the finals after they won each the first set. Klizan was sick (he couldn't barely sit on his chair during the breaks) and Berlocq lost the first set 0:6. There was really no indication for comebacks. In earlier days I would be mad, not taking such trades... Right now I know that this would be just speculation on a very small probability (something like playing lotto). For fun you can try such a trade, but it's more a gamble. Above I wrote what's trading for me. I think it's a big step to recognize the difference between trading and hoping for a (surprise) outcome. There are a lot better games for possible swings. Klizan and especially Berlocq would train (like the prices suggested) in the normal case in no time to 1.01...

I registered at www.tennistv.com. I think it's a good addition to my bet365 account. The disadvantage it's a delay of around ten seconds against bet365, but I have bigger pictures and can watch up to four matches in the same screen. My trading style is not that much "in and out", so I can live with the mentioned delay. The stable and good quality pictures are worth it. Beside you can listen to interviews and inside information. It's a good source to improve my player knowledge.

Tomorrow I have to work again. It's a pity, these days are breaking my trading rhythm. On the other side this job gives me the financial security. At the moment it's too early to think about full time trading, but it's still my big target. I will keep you informed, have a great week!

Value is value...

I am disappointed, there are really great (qualification) matches at Madrid, but all around you don't find any TV coverage. It seems that there is more interest in a challenger match between Marco Trungelliti (Who the f... is this? :-)) and Facundo Bagnis than in a qualification game between Belinda Bencic and Camila Giorgio. Neither bad was Thiem against Leo Mayer or Errani against Petkovic... Tomorrow Serena faces Bencic, but probably again without TV pictures.

The ATP half finals at Munich and Portugal didn't bring great matchups to trade. Klizan could be a try against Haas, but would be a gamble. If Tommy is 100% healthy (he was not looking that bad in earlier rounds) he would dominate the Slovak at home for sure. The only real good match for trading was Suarez Navarro versus Kuznetsova. Unfortunately I missed once again the entry point. I was waiting too long to have a 1-2 tick better entry. I really have to stop this perfectionism. You will "never" hit the bottom price, it's like at the stock exchange... Beside I trusted Struff too much against Fognini. Unfortunately he played a poor game, Fabio didn't have to show his best. He was never in a bad mood that shows how easy the game was for him. :-)

Why i traded the Fabio game? It was just because there was nothing good to trade, and I was mad because the missed entry at the WTA final in Portugal. I am still not enough patient, it's obvious.

I saw better value on other matches, but they were not shown on TV. I am not a big supporter of scoreboard trading because you can't read the game. Despite this fact you have to consider that beside the courtsiders nobody has live pictures. So it's more or less the same situacion like when everybody has live pictures. I decided to trade without pictures when I find good value, especially when there are no good matchups with TV coverage. Value is value... 

Start "Year 0"

I didn't trade much today. I waited too long with laying Bouchard. The right moment would be when she was up 3:1 (or 4:1) in the first set. I hoped for an entry after the first set. It showed me (again) that you should take the first opportunity for the value. Of course the odd is smaller after a player won the first set, but it doesn't mean that's a better entry point. If the favourite is ahead with won set, it needs a lot of time until the odd recovers. In general I would say, that the value is often better in the first set...

Beside I was watching Vinci vs. Vesnina. Unfortunately the match didn't take the progression I hoped for. After Vesnina won the first set, the value was gone. In the last set Vinci was ahead 4:1 (!!) and lost... I don't like so much the entries at the last set, but could be a try after she was ahead 5:7, 6:4 and 2:0. I did something similar in the last round against Cadantu (and lost). So I didn't have the balls to try it again. That's the reason why it's so important to have self confidence. Without it's quiet difficult to trade...

Aside I was on Bellucci against Delbonis. Unfortunately I changed the sides in the last set. Again I was more betting than trading. In the 2nd set the Brazilian was looking stronger, so there was no need for going more or less "all in" for Delbonis.

In the last trade I was overconfident backing Kubot against Berlocq. That was a poor trade... I just went for a small laying odd (and not for value), because I hoped for another suprise (like against Gabashvili). At a normal day Berlocq is on clay stronger than Gaba... The Russian was traded so low because his win against Ferrer some days ago. That was a good success, but we all know that people of Russia often have a lack of interest in minor games. So it doesn't surprise me that he struggled after his big win.

Overall it was a quiet day with some good learnings. Nothing totally new, but important confirmations:

• Not wait too long if you see real value! Take the opportunity... normally it doesn't come again.
• Don't bet! Go for the value, also after the entry (some exceptions with very big favourites after a comeback... normally there is no value, but they often win when the momentum changed).
• Let the green trades run as good as possible (in a normal case at least one set without greening).
• Keep the previous day analysis (It was really good... in general I watched and traded more or less the right games).

Tomorrow I have to work again. I guess I will not have much time to trade.

1st of May: The (last) journey begins...

Today is the first of May. 20 years ago Ayron Senna died (wow... I am getting old :-)), one of my favourite sportsmen. A sad day, but that is not the topic of this post.

In German we say "Alles neu, macht der Mai". It means that everything is changing in May. In my case it's the perfect time to make a "new start" with trading. Since I started the blog, I made a lot of learnings. For example that the concentration on one sport is good (for me). Soccer and NBA didn't work, at tennis I see light on the horizon. The apprenticeship is over. I am more or less breakeven at tennis (despite a lot of bad trades I did!), it should be a question of time to reach the fifth stage of betfair trading: https://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

In the article he is talking about six month on the fourth stage, where I am now. If I will not make it to next step in the next half year I failed. From today until the rest of the season it's more or less half a year. So it's a great opportunity to find out in the remaining part of the year if I have the trading skills (or not) to reach the last stage.

I decided to start today with exactly 100 Units (5'000 Euros) and a constant stake of 1 Unit (50 Euros) per trade. I made the necessary transactions to be ready. Yes, I wrote that the financial figures pressure me. That's true, but a professional trader has to live with this feeling. When I like to live one day from trading, I have to get used to this situacion. For this reason I decided to make a profit&loss reporting of every trade. I am just allowed to trade inside the strategy (no more free style trading anymore!). At the end of the season I will exactly know, how I performed. If I don't reach the end of season (because I blowed my bank) it would be the end of the dream. You have to accept the truth. In my life I lost too much money with betting and trading, so this is a last (hopefully successful) try to earn money.

Perhaps that was a sign today. In Switzerland the authority are changing the law about betting. In the future it will be completely legal over internet and you have not to pay taxes anymore! This is great news.

I will keep you informed about my progress as a trader and especially how my bank develops. In a time frame over seven months bad and good variance will even up. The figures will just show the truth about my trading skills. So I am extremely curious about my upcoming results.