Wednesday, 7 May 2014

We are cooking...

Well, things are getting interesting. It was quiet a busy trading day. It started at 11 o'clock with Gulbis vs.  Janowicz and it's not finished yet. Ivanovic is still playing against Jovanovski. So far this game didn't bring good entry points, so I can already write this post.

I am quiet happy how things are going with the correct score market trading. Today I managed a good profit again. Manchester United won against Hull 3:1. I expected more or less this score (I favoured 3:0 and 3:1 with a small protection on 4:0). After a slow start I got the opportunity to enter the market for good value. I don't know how I will do in the future with this strategy, but I am quiet optimistic. Tomorrow Manchester City will play at home against Aston Villa. Again I expect a score in this range. Perhaps it's wise to put some security on 4:0 and 4:1, but only a small one. After Liverpool threw away a 3:0 lead, I guess City will no do the same mistake and will be happy with a "normal win" like 3:0 or 3:1.

Unfortunately I missed two of the best tennis games today. I had to change the tyres of my car, so I was exactly away when Sharapova and Fognini were playing. The comebacks of Masha are famous, I would back her for sure when she was 1:3 (or 1:4) down in the third set. Fognini was traded too low after the first set... Dog was the favourite (and won in the end), but with Fabio you always have to count on the unprobable outcome. The only constant is his bad mood on the field. This time he went too far and will be punished hard. He is a great character on tour, but now he passed a point which is not acceptable anymore.

In the evening the surprise of Thiem against Stan was the highlight. I am not that much surprised. Wawrinka is still not the player you can trust for low odds (1.17), especially not against a future topshot like his Austrian opponent. I arranged a small profit, but I didn't trade very well. In the future I will do it slightly different with such a strong underdog. I will stake lower in the beginning and will let run the trade until the end or the point I am big green. This time I reduced my stake after the first set for a small loss... Normally this approach it's okay, but with a lay since the start it's so much time left to turn the things in the right direction.

In summary I am happy how things are improving. At tennis I feel really a progress and at soccer I am on the way to develop a strategy which I am comfortable with.

At this moment Ivanovic finished her match against Jovanovski. She won in straight sets. Probably she wanted to go to bed... :-)  I am happy that I didn't enter this market. I am quiet sure that I would do it some weeks ago. Ana was traded quiet low, but now I have a better feeling for surprises. I know I will miss the one or other opportunity (like at the weekend with Klizan and Berlocq), but the most important it's the protection of the bank. At soccer I have to think about this issue... because my strategy is quiet save, my stakes are higher.

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