Thursday, 1 May 2014

Start "Year 0"

I didn't trade much today. I waited too long with laying Bouchard. The right moment would be when she was up 3:1 (or 4:1) in the first set. I hoped for an entry after the first set. It showed me (again) that you should take the first opportunity for the value. Of course the odd is smaller after a player won the first set, but it doesn't mean that's a better entry point. If the favourite is ahead with won set, it needs a lot of time until the odd recovers. In general I would say, that the value is often better in the first set...

Beside I was watching Vinci vs. Vesnina. Unfortunately the match didn't take the progression I hoped for. After Vesnina won the first set, the value was gone. In the last set Vinci was ahead 4:1 (!!) and lost... I don't like so much the entries at the last set, but could be a try after she was ahead 5:7, 6:4 and 2:0. I did something similar in the last round against Cadantu (and lost). So I didn't have the balls to try it again. That's the reason why it's so important to have self confidence. Without it's quiet difficult to trade...

Aside I was on Bellucci against Delbonis. Unfortunately I changed the sides in the last set. Again I was more betting than trading. In the 2nd set the Brazilian was looking stronger, so there was no need for going more or less "all in" for Delbonis.

In the last trade I was overconfident backing Kubot against Berlocq. That was a poor trade... I just went for a small laying odd (and not for value), because I hoped for another suprise (like against Gabashvili). At a normal day Berlocq is on clay stronger than Gaba... The Russian was traded so low because his win against Ferrer some days ago. That was a good success, but we all know that people of Russia often have a lack of interest in minor games. So it doesn't surprise me that he struggled after his big win.

Overall it was a quiet day with some good learnings. Nothing totally new, but important confirmations:

  • Not wait too long if you see real value! Take the opportunity... normally it doesn't come again.
  • Don't bet! Go for the value, also after the entry (some exceptions with very big favourites after a comeback... normally there is no value, but they often win when the momentum changed).
  • Let the green trades run as good as possible (in a normal case at least one set without greening).
  • Keep the previous day analysis (It was really good... in general I watched and traded more or less the right games).

Tomorrow I have to work again. I guess I will not have much time to trade.


  1. simon spencer3 May 2014 at 02:14

    with the £5k bank I think you should at least half it then trade for knowledge. The way you trade requires you to look for value and know the player really well. If I was to ask you how would the woman world number 75 player under pressure and what her style of game is, would you know? If you dont know all the top 150 men and women's players really well then I think its tough to gage your success as a trader, as you dont have all the knowledge required to succeed yet. Its like asking you to sit an exam but you have only covered 50% of the course material. Maybe you need to see this as a year to learn all the players then next year you have the trading skills, you have the player knowledge and you have the mindset to succeed.

    For example, this man made a fortune from basketball because he knew NBA inside out and watched so much of it. If you have this type of tennis player knowledge then I am sure you will be successful but I don't want you to kill your dream before you have had the chance to get all the required player knowledge.

  2. It's 5k Euro, so it's already less. :-) The player knowledge is not perfect, but decent enough to go for the so called "exam". I will not make a perfect mark, but I am ready to pass this test.

    I think it's better for me to make it under a bit of pressure. 5k Euro will not kill me (if I lose it). It's always a question how much you can afford to lose.

    Beside the player knowledge I can improve my killer instinct. Often I wait to long to enter the market or go out too quick. I think is good to learn it under a bit of pressure. I mean if I am in the end of year -100 Euro and I see a good trend I would not stop. Let's see...