Three stage model

Lately I read different strategy guides. For my taste they were too general or the structure didn't fit my taste. It's really difficult to write a good strategy book.

I recognized that copy & paste doesn't work at all. Other guides can just be an input for a brainstorming. It's really difficult to implement a logical structure. In my opinion that's the key for the success. I don't want to go in the details, but I like to summarize my approach.

In the first stage of a trade I am looking for a low volatility in the market. Like Caan wrote some days ago, it's really important to find a good risk/reward-ratio (http://caanberry.com/risk-reward-ratio). In the past I made the mistake to enter the market too early or too late. Sometimes the market was still too nervous, and on the other hand I missed a good lay opportunity since the start. You can find much overpriced favorites. Today you could see this fact with Wozniacki, Cornet and Suarez. In the end all of them won, but they had to fight hard despite their start prices were 1.20 and lower... In the first stage of a trade it's all about creating an "all green book". In general I stake in the beginning of a match higher for less ticks. You don't have to win the jackpot (Yes, scammer "Ulas" with this you are right. Beside you are just pitiful. Nothing more to say, these kind of people just deserve ignorance!), normally you will not. In the first set you have to work on the base for the later stages.

If you have a green book at the end of the first set (or before), you are capable to go for the bigger swings. I look for value lays or comebacks of strong players. When you have a green book after the first set, you can back the big favourites, which lost the first set, more aggressive (for example at the beginning of the set). If you are in a losing position or just breakeven, I don't recommend this strategy. Normally the market loves the favourites too much and you normally can't find value at this time of the match. In this stage of the trade is all about compound the profit. While the first stage of the trade is more mechanical with strict rules, here you can go with your gut feeling.

Last, but not least, also the third stage of a trade is very interesting. I would call it "hail mary". At tennis matches it's quiet common that big favourites or leaders (odds < 1.05) loses or start to struggle. Often the risk/reward-ratio is brillant at the end of a match. The momentum can change really quick. If you close a trade too early, you often miss the most interesting stage of a tennis match. When I was at Sultan's trading academy, I was surprised that Sultan closes trades early and moves to the next match. Movements from 500 to 100 doesn't seem interesting, but you get a great leverage for little money.

It's still a long way to go. Trading is easier in theory than in reality, but I am sure that I am with the described three stage model on the right way. In the next step I will concretize the plan behind this approach with a data collection and suitable strategies.

Strategy development

After the scam the daily routine comes in again. Nevertheless I like to publish a comment of betfair on my blog:

"We have recently been made aware of several incidents where customers have shared their Betfair account details (including usernames and passwords) with a third party who has promised to trade on the customers’ account and generate large returns. Despite what they may claim, such third parties are not approved, endorsed or associated with Betfair in any way and typically result in the customers involved losing their money.

We would therefore like to remind all customers to keep your Betfair username and password strictly confidential and never share them with any third party. If your username and password is shared in this manner, then under our terms and conditions, Betfair will be entitled to assume that you have personally carried out the activity on your account."

Back to trading... in general I suggest to go your own way. Lately I read a lot of strategy guides. They are not bad, but trading is a personal topic. One person is more cautious than the other. This fact influences the money management and placing stop losses while trading. Beside there are technical and emotional traders. The first ones like chart analysis, the second ones prefer trading with gut feeling.

Bruce Lee combined different fighting techniques and produced a better one. This is also my approach, that's the reason for the blogs name Bruce Lay. I try to combine scalping with swing- and over value-trading. The strategies are a mix between chart analysis and gut feeling. The money management is more conservative as in the past and described in other guides. The strategy starts to fit my taste.

In summary I would say that the strategy is something individual. You can't copy and paste from another trader. You should develop your own approach. It's time consuming, but in the end you will be comfortable with it.

Next weeks the main tournaments are played in Asia. Unfortunately the matches are played very early in the morning (European time). I will try to wake up early and change my rhythm. I think this could be even harder than to improve my trading skills. :-)

Project Ultimo

Let's call this project "Ultimo". It's the last try to become a successful trader. If I am not successful until the end of year 2015 my trading career failed. What happened so far and what are the future targets? I will talk about that in this post.

In the summer 2013 I decided to become a part time trader. I started to watch tennis games and made my internet research. Amongst other I found the blog of Sultan (http://centrecourttrading.blogspot.ch) and TradeSharks tips (http://blog.tradesharktennis.com). Beside I still traded soccer and other sports. Around one year ago I joined Sultan's trading academy and I started to focus on tennis. Perhaps I was a bit too harsh against Sultan after I was scammed from the other guy. I would say that the price for his package was too high, but it was my own will to pay this money. I still have my doubts that he is a successful trader, but in the end it's not my business. Without any doubts, Sultan and TradeShark gave me ideas, how I can trade tennis.

During the time at Sultan's trading academy I reached stage 3 of betfair trading: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589. At this time I thought I was already at stage 4, but I was definitely not. Unfortunately not, then in other case I would not be scammed. In May, where the "professional trader" came in my life, I was struggling. With some theory of trading, faked p+l statements and a wrong identity card, he won my trust. I don't want to go again deeper in the details, in other case I have to vomit. I never before had so much disrespect for a person. At least he gave me some ideas of trading, but an internet research would be the cheaper option.

With a serious partner I started the project "Ultimo" two weeks ago. With the knowledge I acquired in the last months, I reached the level 4 of betfair trading. We are still in the beginning of the marathon, but the progress is obvious. Yesterday I traded the US Open final between Cilic and Nishikori. Despite a bad scenario for a trader (very one sided match) and some trading mistakes, I managed a small profit. Meanwhile the strategy guide contains 18 pages and is getting better and better. Beside we create a big database with price developments during the matches. Until the start of the new season we like to finish this step. Aside I start to trade with bigger stakes. We defined the money management quiet conservative, so I am not afraid of this rise. A 1% loss of the bank per trade is the worst what can happen.

The next big matches are at the upcoming weekend. The Davis Cup half final will take place. Switzerland will host Italy and Czech Republic will meet France in the other match of last four teams. Perhaps it will bring some trading opportunities. I look forward to interesting matches. Hopp Schwiiz, go for the final Roger and Stan!

Scammers

The last post brought some waves. I have to clarify some things. Sultan was not the scammer I mentioned! He sells a service (strategy guide and email support) which has his price. Everybody has to decide if it's a good deal or not. For my taste 500 pounds is too expensive. In the meantime he lowered the price, so the value could be better. I just have my doubts that he is a successful trader. There are no real proofs that he makes money with trading and why in the hell you sell your strategies to competitors?! In the beginning he told that's an exclusive offer, and now he opens the door even more. For me this is smelly, but I would not say that he is a real scammer, he just takes advantage of good marketing.

My scammer plays in another league and is a real criminal. Since more than five years he tricks people with wrong identity, fake profit & loss statements, wrong facebook profile and different neteller and probably betfair accounts. I just can warn you once again, be aware of him! Don't trust anybody which says something like this: "I am myself full time tennis trader and manage wallet for betfair customers...". If something is looking to good to be true, there is something wrong. I can't believe that this scammer is that stubborn that he tries to steal more of my money. Greed is the beginning of the end. Enough is enough! Now it's not my problem anymore, it's issue of the police. If somebody likes to play with the fire, it's his risk. I lost money, but that is still better than going in the jail or live always in the fear to be caught. That is the last posting about scamming. I am really pissed, but life and trading has to continue.

With a real partner I am working on a database and a strategy guide. Beside I will rise my stakes. I know that the readers are interested in numbers and profit & loss statements. For me was the same, when I was reading the blog of Sultan. I will let you know about my development. I will do it with excel charts. In the end you can fake them as good as betfair statements. I never will sell anything, so I think you can trust me. :-)  I have no itention to lie...

Comeback

"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better" - Stan Wawrinka tattooed this quote of Samuel Beckett on his arm. With will you can achieve a lot. "Stan the man" reached the top of the tennis world and won the Australian Open. My new slogan is the same quote.

 

Lately I learned that a printscreen it's worth nothing. You can fake it without any problems. So don't believe what you are seeing at Internet. I was a victim of a scammer which knows how to use photoshop and lightshot. At least he has a strong knowledge of trading (in theory), and I learned some new approaches. I will finish my strategy guide next days.

Yes, I failed... but Stan Wawrinka showed what is possible if you don't give up. It was a painful lesson, and my trust in people suffered.

This story has two consequences:

• I will not post anymore profit&loss statements at this blog. In the worst case a scammer misuse them. Beside these printscreens are no real proof about the performance.
• I only get in closer contact with people which shows their real face over Skype. I am interested in a real partnership.

That's it. I hope that the daily routine will start after this post. I will keep you informed about my development as a trader.

Goodbye and all the best!

Like most of the blogs also my one started with a lot of energy and suddenly it ends. At least I like to write a final post. Lately I was quiet busy with trading, and in the end I could improve a lot.

I am not interested to make money with selling some twilight services, investment opportunities or picks. I wrote a trading guide for my own use and it's not for sale!!

You should think twice (better even more!) before you buy or invest your money. Why a successful trader should sell his secrets? You are nothing more than a competitor on the same ladders! I can only give you the suggestion to make your own research. Read books about psychology of trading. Define a good money management and learn of the mistakes you do. Learn how the markets react, study charts. Only your own time on the markets helps to become a successful trader. It's like driving a car. Only time in your vehicle helps to improve your skills.

I like to thank three guys which helped me during this time. None of them want to be mentioned with name, but I am sure they know to whom I am referring. Horse, you do, right? ;-)  One could be my father, a real gentleman! Thanks for the endless discussions over skype and email. Last, but not least, my thanks to my Croatian friend from Germany. It was was an amazing time when we tried our luck with NBA. :-) 

I wish all the best to the (future) traders and be aware for what you are spending your money!

Keep greening :-)

Brulati

Small, but beautiful...

I had to recognize that it doesn't make sense to play with big money at this stage. Beside I made some changes and additions to Sultan's strategies. Like he wrote in his blog, he started with Tradesharks strategies and adjusted them to his personal taste. I did the same, and I start to feel comfortable with them. What did I change:

• I implemented more flexible exit points. 
• I go for more momentum changes (in and out).
• I enter for shorter periods.
• I make more offplay trades.

In general I made the mistake to trade the players and not the market. It's important to think in which direction it will go. You have to consider what your opponents (the other market particpants) will do. Are they overreacting? Are they right with their bets?

It works quiet well at the moment. I will slightly rise the stakes in comparison to the balance. At the moment I don't risk more than 20 Euros in a trade. If you consider this they profit you see below is not that bad...