Friday, 19 September 2014

Three stage model

Lately I read different strategy guides. For my taste they were too general or the structure didn't fit my taste. It's really difficult to write a good strategy book.

I recognized that copy & paste doesn't work at all. Other guides can just be an input for a brainstorming. It's really difficult to implement a logical structure. In my opinion that's the key for the success. I don't want to go in the details, but I like to summarize my approach.

In the first stage of a trade I am looking for a low volatility in the market. Like Caan wrote some days ago, it's really important to find a good risk/reward-ratio ( In the past I made the mistake to enter the market too early or too late. Sometimes the market was still too nervous, and on the other hand I missed a good lay opportunity since the start. You can find much overpriced favorites. Today you could see this fact with Wozniacki, Cornet and Suarez. In the end all of them won, but they had to fight hard despite their start prices were 1.20 and lower... In the first stage of a trade it's all about creating an "all green book". In general I stake in the beginning of a match higher for less ticks. You don't have to win the jackpot (Yes, scammer "Ulas" with this you are right. Beside you are just pitiful. Nothing more to say, these kind of people just deserve ignorance!), normally you will not. In the first set you have to work on the base for the later stages.

If you have a green book at the end of the first set (or before), you are capable to go for the bigger swings. I look for value lays or comebacks of strong players. When you have a green book after the first set, you can back the big favourites, which lost the first set, more aggressive (for example at the beginning of the set). If you are in a losing position or just breakeven, I don't recommend this strategy. Normally the market loves the favourites too much and you normally can't find value at this time of the match. In this stage of the trade is all about compound the profit. While the first stage of the trade is more mechanical with strict rules, here you can go with your gut feeling.

Last, but not least, also the third stage of a trade is very interesting. I would call it "hail mary". At tennis matches it's quiet common that big favourites or leaders (odds < 1.05) loses or start to struggle. Often the risk/reward-ratio is brillant at the end of a match. The momentum can change really quick. If you close a trade too early, you often miss the most interesting stage of a tennis match. When I was at Sultan's trading academy, I was surprised that Sultan closes trades early and moves to the next match. Movements from 500 to 100 doesn't seem interesting, but you get a great leverage for little money.

It's still a long way to go. Trading is easier in theory than in reality, but I am sure that I am with the described three stage model on the right way. In the next step I will concretize the plan behind this approach with a data collection and suitable strategies.


  1. good to see bruce lay is back with his blog, I have added it to my blogroll again (I removed it as it looked like it got set to private before?) as it's one of the blog's I always enjoyed reading, just because I have been on a similar style of journey.

    If you get the chance take a look at it, I don't agree with everything he says (who does with opinions?), however it should help new traders see some common mistakes.
    Unfortunately it would seem that he has been scammed, sorry to hear this and I hope he didn't lose too much money

    1. What is funny, Ulas? You are even proud to be a scammer?! You are really a disgusting person. It's not enough to steal the money? I really don't know what's going wrong in your life. You will courtside Belgium against Switzerland? Perhaps we will meet us there. Mark the dates (6 to 8th march) in your calendar ;-)

  2. I am not a scammer like you wrote all over internet!
    I offered you lot of time to give you money back , i even dont knowwich way i can send your 58 k
    Do you have any proof that i scam people?
    I was in hospital because of you and Robert 2 weeks ago
    I was in paris last week , now i courtside Metz

    1. You exactly know where you can send the money: I wrote it already two or three times. Always you bring the same lame excuses. You lied about almost everything: identity, Lyon, premium charge, about Robert, plattform and so on. I hope they repaired your brain in hospital, and you can think clear again and send me back the money.

      You really thought that I send you more money?! I was stupid, but enough is enough! Even betfair wrote on my blog to warn people. Get alive, I have no reason to call somebody a scammer when he isn't. Sometimes there are overpriced services (for example Sultan's trading academy --> at least he lowered the price now), but that is a totally different story and we are talking about some bucks... You even mention the 58k here. So what you are waiting for?

      Start a real life with happyness, a family and a serious job. Stealing money can't be satisfying, if it's for you, you are just sick in the brain and you have to return to hospital.

  3. 58K yikes, hopefully that's not £'s ?

    I was only here to say your strategy is flawed if you're basing decisions on how well or not you're currently doing. It's bound to fail as it's akin to chasing or some kind of martingale staking plan which have been proved to be flawed time and time again. If you're strategy works it'll work regardless of how well you're doing, your way seem that you'll just be more willing to take risks if you're up at the time.

    1. Unfortunately the 58k are not Colombian or Mexican Pesos... neither pounds, we are talking about Euro. The damage is big enough and it's really a shame that the scammer has the impudence to come (again) to this blog and play the innocent. At least he didn't deny that he owes me 58k. Actually the money should be for a serious partnership, but he decided to steal the money. Well, I should be more careful, but these scammers are smart and know how they can fool people. In the darkness of the internet you have no chance to catch them. The only thing I can do is warning people to prevent more victims...

      My strategy has nothing to do with martingale or progressive systems. It's quiet conservative with flat stakes and a maximum loss of 1% of capital per trade. I am just looking for the best risk/reward-ratio, here I am still not confident. I think that's the most difficult point. You can look for too much ticks (and in the end your hedge will not be matched) or you are too careful (you win in the short term, but in the long term your profits are not big enough to cover the lost bets). I will collect more data to get indicators.

    2. Ouch, sorry to hear that, unfortunately the net is full of c%$^s, hopefully you'll get some back.

      You just have to resign yourself to the fact you'll never hit the top and bottom of trading ranges especially if you have a strict strategy.

    3. Yes, unfortunately I missed the first rule... never send (much) money to somebody you don't know! As ugly it is, life has to continue. I wanted to be a trader and instead of helping me, the scammer made it more difficult for me. Despite that fact, I will not give up. It's still possible to go full time. Stan had a lot of hard losses before winning Australian Open... in the end he made it. Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.

      Lately the strategy development was quiet promising. In the last two months of season I will test the approaches. The real start will be 2015. My target is to be part time trader next year and go full time in 2016...