Value betting...

Dear blog followers, I wish you all the best for the year 2014! I hope you started well. My beginning was allright. I watched a lot of sports, especially tennis and basketball. The analysis showed that I struggled in 2013 especially at football. So I decided to put the focus on the other two sports.

Today I was active on the tennis markets. Unfortunately both trades (Brands and Garcia-Lopez) went in the wrong direction. The Spaniard missed two many breakpoints (two times three in a row) in the 2nd set. Brands didn't serve like he did in prior rounds. On the other hand Monfils played an outstanding game. Despite the lost bets the red figure was always under control. Lately I became more used with the value concept. I can better accept to lose trades. It's not about picking winners (in other case nobody would bet against Djokovic or Nadal), it's about trading probabilities. If you think that a player has a 20% chance to win and you can find an odd around 10 (which equals a 10% probability) you make the trade. Obviously you lose this bet in 4 of 5 times, but over long term you will win...

So, it's all about finding value. It's not easy, but together with my mentor I am improving to recognize these trades. Beside an excel list helps me. I make notes about all my bets and the players. At the moment my knowledge is not enough to compete with the best traders. That's just normal, even if I am talented (actually I don't know... at least I have a lot of bite), I have to learn like all the other stuff, for example languages or a new sports.

Beside I love to watch and trade basketball. I can use more or less the same strategies like in tennis. It's a good diversity (for example is not tennis at Decembre) and it seems the entry points are easier to choose. On the other hand is more difficult to decide when you are leaving the trade. Yesterday I made the same mistake like in the past with tennis. I favoured Denver, even with a ten point deficit, against Philadelphia. In the beginning they were ahead with five or six points and could be layed for 1.20... that would be a good trade, because the Nuggets lost the last seven games. Also at basketball you have to trade the market and not the teams! I am looking forward to the upcoming night. I am sure there will be again a lot of good trading opportunities.

Recovering (a bit)...

On a low level, I am recovering. Acutally I don't want to make a comparison with Michael Schumacher (is too serious), but it describes my situacion quiet well. With my betting I was or let's better I am so low like he with his life :-(. It seems he makes small steps forward (thanks god!) and I am also recovering a bit.

Lately I liked especially basketball. I feel me more comfortable with it as with tennis. You are not so extradited to one player. On the other hand the swings are more or less the same. Actually I am even more confident that a strong favourite or a leader will have a weak period during a match than in tennis. I have no stats, but it seems that is pretty rare that one basketballteam wins all four periods. In tennis I saw too much games where a player didn't hit a ball during the whole match. The advantage of tennis are the higher amount of games, the duration of season and of course the lidquidity.

... but it doesn't mean that I will stop to trade tennis. There is too much I can learn of my teacher Sultan. Like I wrote in my last post, for me is great to have now more diversity. The pressure to find value at tennis is lower, because in basketball I will find it almost for sure. Since I am trading it was no night without great swings. Like me friend told, the charts are looking like the Swiss alps :-)

Well, the profit is not looking that spectacular at the moment. On the other hand I made with basketball in only a few days around a 1/3 of my account. I don't say that I can scale up this to a 100'000 Euros account (would be over 30'000 Euros), but I think there is some potential. The liquidity is quiet okay, i think factor 10 is more than realistic. A trader should not talk about numbers, but let's do a small forecast. If I can do 18 Euros in two days, it's in one month 270 Euros. With factor 10 would be 2'700 Euros... Let's dream :-)  Beside some tennis and football, so the target to become a full time trader would be almost reached. Unfortunately life in Switzerland is quiet expensive...

Blow my account...

Which trader doesn't know this feeling?! After a lost bet you like to regain the money. You make stupid moves and in the end you blow (almost) your whole account. Yes, it happened to me. I like to be honest with you and should be a lesson for the future.

Well, 2013 was a year  to learn. In the end was very disappointing, but was more because my lacking discipline and not because strategies don't work. I have to keep the positive aspects from this year. I learned to trade soccer, tennis and since some days I am drilled about NBA. Amazing how quick the momentum can change! In just two days I saw two or three 1.02 odds which were (almost) blown.

In soccer I trade mainly pre game, but is harder than I thought. You need large sums of money to make some bucks. The trends are not always that clear. Sometimes a market maker destroys your efforts. Well, I keep this strategy, but I prefer to focus on tennis and basketball.

At tennis I try to learn more of Sultan. He is a great teacher. Lately I was more patient, not make a trade just because. You have to find value. Is better not to trade as losing money. Thanks to NBA I am not forced to make for heaven's sake a trade. I have more diversity now and can wait for the right opportunity (in the night).

Well at the moment I have to work with a very small account (around 50 Euro). It's boon and bane at the same time. At one side it's frustrating to trade with small amounts. On the oder side is great to learn strategies with less money, because is not that risky.

We will see, what 2014 will bring. It's an important year for me because I am starting a new job with 50% workload. The oder time I try to trade sportsmarkets. I hope I can trade as soon as possible again with more money. If I have more discipliny I will not blow again my account. This is the main point I have to improve... losing some trades is just normal, so I have to learn to accept that betting is not a one-way street.

I wish all my readers a very successful 2014. I hope all your wishes will come true. I will keep you informed about my thoughts about trading and my progress.

Back from holiday

I wish to all blog readers merry christmas. Hope you enjoy these days with your families and get energy for next year. Like I wrote in last post, I was three weeks in South America. I visited Cancun and  Santo Domingo. Especially Mexico was great to make party, to forget about daily routine.

But let's face it... 2014 will be a very important year for me. I decided to quit my good paid job as a financial controller for giving a try with self employed work. One of them is trading! The other one is a capital investment after selling my appartment. Beside I work in part time employment as a financial officer in a small company. Different sources of income should create less daily routine and give hopefully a lot of happyness and more spare time.

Right now I am preparing for the next tennis season. I am quiet sure that I can do it a lot better than in the past. With the support of Sultan and the picks of Shark I have the necessary help on my side. With fooball trading I am already quiet comfortable. I implemented some strategies which works. Is a mix between pre game and inplay trading.

I will keep you informed regularly how the trades are going. I don't have a financial target for the year 2014. I only like to find trust to have an interesting 3th source income beside my regular job and the invested capital.

Tomorrow is boxing day. I hope to make some good trades with English football. For me it's the best league to bet thanks the high market liquidity.

The flow continues...

At wednesday the good flow continues. Like I mentioned I favoured Manchester United to win the game against Leverkusen. Of course I didn't think the english team will win 5:0, but the odd was with 3.50 real too high. Actually is not about betting is more playing the probabilites. Was strange to see ManU only with less 30% chances to win this game...

Beside I was pretty sure that Bayern Munich will not score more than three goals in cold weather without many emotions in Moscow. Okay, in the end was quiet close, they won 3:1. Sometimes you need a bit of luck (or how Lothar Matthäuas say: "I hope we have a little bit lucky").

Yesterday I started my part time job at the new company. So I decided not to make any trades. I saw some opportunities like Lyon or lay the Swiss teams (beside FC Basel there is nothing with international quality in our country), but I don't like so much unattended trades.

Tomorrow I will fly to Mexico for holidays. Perhaps I will trade as well there. How you know you only need a computer (not even... a smartphone is enough) and a internet connection to do it. Let's see. For the moment I layed  Leverkusen... they looked terrible against Manchester United, I can't see them as so clear favourite against Nürnberg. The odd will rise before the kickoff. Beside I am keeping an eye on Barcelona. 1.70 against Bilbao (to be honest, they are quiet strong and Barca is still playing without Messi) is looking quiet attractive. But there is no hurry to enter, the game is at Sunday.

Another good day...

Even if not everything went in the wished direction was a good day. I favoured Chelsea and Schalke but both teams couldn't take the three points to their home. The team from London even lost a second time to the suprising FC Basel. I am proud supporter of FC Basel since over 30 years... but with betting is not allowed to have emocions.

Well I tried some pre game trades and they worked quiet good. Like I wrote above I was pretty sure that the odds of Chelsea and Schalke will drop. Beside I layed a scoreless match between Arsenal and Marseille. Unfortunately I fixed too much money for this trade, so the better ones (Chelsea and Schalke) were not that lucrative.

During the game the performances of Schalke and Chelsea were quiet disappointing. So I decided to put some money for the other outcomes. In the end the results were like mentioned not in my favour. Better was the trading at correct score market in the game between Arsenal and Marseille. I expected a score between 1:0 and 3:3, so I layed 0:0 and unquoted. In the end a 3:0 would be the best for me, but I also could live with the endscore of 2:0.

Beside I wanted to make some money with a comeback of Porto. Unfortunately they only score the 1:1 equalizer and ended in a poor draw against Austria Wien. Actually I made a small mistake with trading, but I made my learnings for the future. With some risk (probably too much... I should not do to much freestyle betting) I corrected the bad trade with an under 5.5 bet. Well this time was a good move, but it can also turns bad. Discipline and patience have to improve further.

Tomorrow or let's better say today is again Champions League. Especially at the English teams I see some opportunities. In my opionion the odd of Manchester United (around 3.50) is too high. Okay, van Persie is not playing, neither Vidic... but Leverkusen is not Bayern Munich. Beside Manchster City is on a hot streak, a 0:0 lay around 30 seems good value for me. In this kind of matches you normally don't get odds under 38 to 40.

Well, let's see what wednesday will bring. I feel quiet positive that the two teams of Manchester will not disappoint me.

It's starting to make fun...

My mother language is German, but I decided to write in English starting today. Is a good practice for me to keep my English knowledge and beside is easier for most of the blog visitors to understand...

One week ago I had my last day as fulltime employee. I decided to give up my 100% job and work in the future only 50% as a clerical employee. The other time I will invest in trading sportsmarkets. In the last months I developed some strategies. Some of them I had to throw away, but beside there are some really succesfull ones. In general I can say that pre game strategies worked better than inplay betting.

At the moment I am only trading soccer. Is important to focus on the defined strategies and get more and more confident. The next step is to rise the stakes. The results of November were quiet promising. Hope this was just the beginning.

In January I like to start again trading tennis markets with the help of Sultan Tennis Academy. In first try I didn't have enough patience. Unfortunately September, where I tried real hard, was not the best month. Even my mentor, Sultan, had not a very good performance. Right now I know that it was only bad variance.

Like I learned from Sultan I will not set anymore financial targets. With my 50% job I have enough money to finance my expenses. Beside I will make some money from a capital investment after selling my appartment. So everything I make with trading is luxury...

At end of month I will travel to Mexico to make a small break of everything. If I have I quick internet connection (I guess so) I will try to make the one other oder trade. Working at the beach with sun and sea is not the worst in life :-)