Friday, 3 January 2014

Value betting...

Dear blog followers, I wish you all the best for the year 2014! I hope you started well. My beginning was allright. I watched a lot of sports, especially tennis and basketball. The analysis showed that I struggled in 2013 especially at football. So I decided to put the focus on the other two sports.

Today I was active on the tennis markets. Unfortunately both trades (Brands and Garcia-Lopez) went in the wrong direction. The Spaniard missed two many breakpoints (two times three in a row) in the 2nd set. Brands didn't serve like he did in prior rounds. On the other hand Monfils played an outstanding game. Despite the lost bets the red figure was always under control. Lately I became more used with the value concept. I can better accept to lose trades. It's not about picking winners (in other case nobody would bet against Djokovic or Nadal), it's about trading probabilities. If you think that a player has a 20% chance to win and you can find an odd around 10 (which equals a 10% probability) you make the trade. Obviously you lose this bet in 4 of 5 times, but over long term you will win...

So, it's all about finding value. It's not easy, but together with my mentor I am improving to recognize these trades. Beside an excel list helps me. I make notes about all my bets and the players. At the moment my knowledge is not enough to compete with the best traders. That's just normal, even if I am talented (actually I don't know... at least I have a lot of bite), I have to learn like all the other stuff, for example languages or a new sports.

Beside I love to watch and trade basketball. I can use more or less the same strategies like in tennis. It's a good diversity (for example is not tennis at Decembre) and it seems the entry points are easier to choose. On the other hand is more difficult to decide when you are leaving the trade. Yesterday I made the same mistake like in the past with tennis. I favoured Denver, even with a ten point deficit, against Philadelphia. In the beginning they were ahead with five or six points and could be layed for 1.20... that would be a good trade, because the Nuggets lost the last seven games. Also at basketball you have to trade the market and not the teams! I am looking forward to the upcoming night. I am sure there will be again a lot of good trading opportunities.

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