Again indiscipline...

One again I couldn't handle my indiscipline. Instead of staying out a trade (the good opportunity always comes if you are enough patient), I decided to go in despite there is no such strategy...

In the end I lost with the "Lay Unquoted" at Schalke against Real Madrid. Real was really on fire. Instead of accpeting that lost, it got worse when I backed in the same game the "Under 6.5". I had enough time to green up (at 1.01), but in this kind of situacion I just wanted to have a green day (and this I could only manage with running the trade until the end). In the end Schalke scored the seventh goal just in the last second (what a shot!). Everybody know  the Murphy's Law... pissed with this result I tried another "Under-Bet". And you will not believe it, again the last goal (which killed my trade) was scored in the last second!! Was a Mexican cup game which was 2:2 until 93th minute. Again I could green it (just for a small win) seconds before. Just stupid in review, but this last painful lesson.

At least I could make a small profit at NBA. Tonight was easier that I expected. I backed Portland from the beginning (odd was really nice, even without Aldridge) and went for Dallas after the Mavs were trailing by seven.

Once again I had to see painful that trading is no one way street. You have to accept bad nights. If I don't learn this, I will never win in the long run. At least I am quiet confident about the strategies in all sports. I read at Cassini's blog that he trades more or less in the same way at NBA. So my approach can't be that wrong... :-)

Great February thanks soccer

Yesterday I wrote that I am quiet confident with my strategies, especially at soccer. The monthly profit&loss statement confirms my feeling. I could almost reach a profit of 1'000 Euros in last four weeks. As a part time trader, I am quiet happy with this result. I think the limit is not reached yet, because there is still potential in rising the stakes and making less mistakes. If I would not make one at Paris's game the profit would be even higher...

NBA is looking promising as well, but the playing hours are not really what I am looking for. Beside the confidence is not as high as at the soccer games. For me is still a bit of roulette. Is really difficult to read the game, the momentum  can change from one second to the other. Sometimes a team throws 80% in a quarter and five minutes later 10%... like Alchemist recommended, it makes sense to do some paper trading to get more trust in my strategies.

My last trading field is tennis. There are so much players, you need a lot of knowledge to be successful. Beside you have to watch as much as possible matches during a tournament. If you don't do this, you don't have enough information to find value. Last week Dolgopolov was on fire, but I didn't see him playing. So I never thought about laying Ferrer against him (H2H was 1:7)... It's just an example which shows that is quiet tricky to trade tennis against professional punters.

In summary I think I have to decide if I trade tennis or NBA beside soccer. Especially at tennis is a lot about watching, watching and watching again games. It's too time consuming to focus on tennis and NBA. Sometimes you need a rest. In general I see more potential at tennis. One reason is the higher amount of games. An other reason is s the bigger liquidity. Beside I think is easier to read the tennis players. Last but not least there are the "time factors". First you often bet against a team and the time (if you lay the leader) and beside is the mentioned topic about playing hours. Is really hard to stay awake during the whole night for waiting the right trading opportunity. Perhaps is easier in summer (but there is no NBA), when you have as a benefit a free afternoon for taking a sunbath... :-) 

Next weeks I will watch basketball and tennis. I have to be sure which sports is better for me to trade. Like I wrote, I think is almost impossible to do both of them parallel... beside I hope that the results at soccer will stay as strong as in February.

   

Quality over quantity...

After a small (NBA allstar) break I am back. At basketball I adjusted the strategy a little bit. It's too early to make a conclusion but the first results are promising. At tennis I had some discussions with Sultan and I recognized my biggest mistake. I was not enough selective, in other words I traded too much. As a part time trader this is a common problem. I felt often the pressure to make a bet, because I have more or less just the weekend for trading. A professional trader has the possibility to wait for the perfect moment, it doesn't matter if is on Monday, Tuesday or any other day.

Obviously is better to make just two good bets than four of which I lose two. So it's all about protection of the account and wait for the right moment. It's nothing new, but quality is definitely more important than quantity.

My best section is still soccer. The implemented strategies are strong, the only problem is the missing quantity of the games which fits to these systems. At least there is a good solution for this problem. If the strategy will work in the long term, I can rise the stakes. If is possible to make 100-200 Euros with one game, ten bets in a week are sufficient. Today I traded four games for a profit over 200 Euros... I am quiet confident that I am on the right way now, especially with soccer. Let's see what the Sunday will bring.

No more NBA...

After another really bad night, I decided to stop immediately NBA trading. In the past I saw some betting pages about basketball, but all of them disappeared. Now I know why... in my opinion is not possible to make profit on a frequent basis with this sport (no exception from the rule). It's just too much daily shape which decides a game. You can't read the game, it can change from one second to the other. You can speculate, but this is no serious trading. It's more gambling. I will miss watching basketball, but for my account this decicion is a good one.

Now I will just focus on soccer and tennis. In contrast to NBA I trust the strategies in these sports, so the results soon will improve again. I keep you informed...

Old mistakes

I thougt that I my mindset is better than before.Last days I felt back to old mistakes. I was searching for fixed strategies. How you can remember I was writing about the five stages of a betfair trader: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

The fixed strategies are typical for stage 2. After some disappointments I started again to search for new ways. How you can see at the printscreen this was definitely a mistake. The most important sentence of the mentioned link is this one: "Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that it’s actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right". My head was definitely not right. After some small losses (which are normal) I lost the trust.

I think the hardest part of trading is staying with confidence after a bad trading day/night. This is the big advantage at tennis. Thanks te proved strategies of Sultan I don't lose the faith.

Lately my results at soccer are stronger than the ones at NBA. Probably is the bigger experience. I can trust more my game reading. At basketball everything is looking so random. Last days Orlando managed two times to win a match after their opponents (Oklahoma and Indiana!!) were trading at 1.01. How you can expect such a comeback?! Beside some tighter looking games (like San Antonio at Detroit) were extremely one sided. At the moment I am not so sure anymore about basketball. I don't see any logic, but perhaps it's not necessary. Is about taking swings and it doesn't matter if it's a good or bad team... I am really insecure at the moment, and I don't know if I will continue with basketball. Tennis and soccer at the moment are really better. I will try until end of February. Then I will decide if I continue with basektball.

At tennis I found some new edges at scalping. I will try next days beside swing trading. Perhaps my last post about diversity was wrong. At the moment I definitely feel more comfortable at tennis and soccer than at NBA. Beside the playing hours are another advantage. Is not fun to be awake the whole night for nothing or even a loss...

Diversity

Lately the account grew steady. Since the start of the year I am almost up 30%. The keys for this success are more discipline (inluded money management), clear strategies, pacience and diversity. Lately I traded soccer, basketball and tennis. While the tennis strategies are proven from Sultan, I am still working on the ones of soccer and basketball. To be honest I don't like so much the football market. In contrast to tennis or basketball is praying for the right outcome. Normally there are not many swings, so you need to pick the right winner. At tennis and basketball is a different story, you already make profit with a right swing. So I prefer these markets.

In general I see an advantage of diversity, including soccer. First is more interesting. To be honest, I couldn't watch and trade the whole day tennis. After some hours I get bored. So I can change to soccer or I trade even both markets at the same time.

How I wrote before, I am quiet confident now with the tennis strategies of Sultan. After a while you get comfortable with the value concept. Today I could make a nice trade with Fognini, some days ago with Kuznetsov (against Sijsling). Thanks to good game reading and close bad trades at the right time I won 75 Euros this week.

Soccer is still a lot of freestyle trading. Actually I don't like it so much, but with a profit of almost 100 Euro was the best section this week. I try to foucs on real strategies, but right now they don't work very well. I am not so worried about it, because soccer is only my third priority after tennis and basketball.

Last seven days I made a loss at NBA trading. I recognized that the strategies are too complicated and inflexible. Sometimes I missed a good trade (because I was not allowed to trade according the strategy rules), another time I made a bad one. So I am still working on the framework. I am quiet sure that it will work if I keep the system simple (like at tennis).

The trees are still not growing in the sky, but I can feel the progress. Despite not taking much risk, I already made in 2014 a ROI of almost 30%. At basketball, where I invested the most time, I am more or less breakeven. I am sure that I can improve there a lot.

Terrible Superbowl...

What a terrible superbowl in the view of a Broncos fan! :-( Couldn't be worse... today at least the Avs (late comeback against Devils with an Overtime win) and the Nuggets (buzzer beater win with a 3 pointer against LA Clippers) could rehabilitate Denver sports. Beside my activitities as a supporter, I could make some good trades. At the superbowl was quiet easy to win some bucks after the terrible start of the Broncos. Probably a lot of punters were aware of a comeback in the second half. I was suprised that you still got 13% (1.13) for a Seahawks win after 30 minutes. Even as the game was 29:0 and the Broncos unfortunately still were looking terrible, you could back the Seahawks for 1.02 to 1.03. Sometimes even small odds can be value.

At basketball the small adjustments in the strategy (I wrote about it at the last posting) brought me back in the green zone. Even with three lost bets (Memphis, Utah and Portland) I arranged a profit of over 30 Euros. It could be more,  because I favoured the Denver Nuggets, but greed is not a good companion when you are trading. I am quiet happy with this night, despite I missed one of the best games (comeback of San Antonio). I see a slighy but steady progress. If I can improve further, I will rise soon my stakes. During February I will continue to test and adjust the system. If the yield and ROI keeps stable, I will go in with bigger money at the beginning of March.

Setback

After really good first impressions I had a setback yesterday. Was really not a good night which turned the positive yield and ROI in negative KPIs. At this stage is not a problem. I am still in the learning process. On the contrary, it's great to improve the system. Would not be good to recognize with bigger amounts that is not working!

I had to determine that the implemented strategy is not flexible enough. There was a great opportunity to lay the Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis. Unfortunately was not allowed because there is a rule which forbids lays above 1.50. Beside I had a lack of discipline and didn't stop all the losting bets at the right time. So I lost additional 20 Euros. In general I like to work at the following issues:

• More discipline with redding
• More flexibility in extraordinary situations
• Less flexibility in normal situations (sometimes I layed too high)
  

Tonight only superbowl counts. Let's go BRONCOS! I will not make a bet (even if I think the Broncos will make it), but as big Denver fan since years I am drilled about the game.

Offline vs. inplay

Like I wrote two days ago, yesterday I couldn't trade because the lack of sleep. So I decided to make two offline bets. In the end I lost both trades. Cleveland against New York (86:117) and the LA Clippers against Golden State (92:111) were without any chances. Especially the clear defeat of Los Angeles was a surprise for me, but the biggest upset happened at Indianapolis. After the Pacers went 21:1 at home you couldn't expect the defeat against the Phoenix Suns. I had to recognize that offline betting ist not good, because you can't shorten your losses. In the end I lost the whole liability of around 40 Euros.

On the other hand, I had tonight a decent trading night. The start was not that good, because I made a mistake with the Oklahoma game. Instead of reduce the liability I increased it. Beside I didn't close the trade with a (small) loss. In the end I lost more that I should because of stupid trading. At least I could arrange some good trades with Memphis and Dallas. The Mavs started and finished the game strong. Only in the middle part they were struggling. This game running brought nice swings. In the end resulted the best ever yield (over 300%) since I implemented the new strategy. In the end of the night the LA Lakers shortened the P+L. It's shocking how bad they played. No defence, turnovers like hell and at the start of the third quarter they missed 10 of 10 from the field area. Nick Young had a terrible off night. Definitely it would be better to trade Utah. The best of the Lakers is their past, probably this is the reason why is tempting to bet on them. Despite the frustrating loss with Los Angeles and the missed game at Utah, the first five days with the new strategy is quiet promising:

Total staked: 314.31 Euros
Win-/Loss-Ratio: 5:8 (38.4% hitting rate)
Total net profit: 82.03 Euros
Yield: 26.1%
ROI: 8.2%
 

The good thing is the positive yield despite an unsatisfactory win-/loss-ratio of under 40%. The target is at least 45%. Beside the yield per game can be smoothed a bit. The double swing strategy will be adjusted just a little bit to make more regular profits. Before the double swing was a bit overweighted.

In general I am quiet happy with the development in the last weeks. If I can keep the yield over 20.0% that would be fantastic. Don't forget that the stakes are still quiet small. The liquidity allows at least ten times bigger liabilities. In this case the profit for not even one week would be almost 1'000 Euros...