Tuesday, 11 February 2014

Old mistakes

I thougt that I my mindset is better than before.Last days I felt back to old mistakes. I was searching for fixed strategies. How you can remember I was writing about the five stages of a betfair trader: http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

The fixed strategies are typical for stage 2. After some disappointments I started again to search for new ways. How you can see at the printscreen this was definitely a mistake. The most important sentence of the mentioned link is this one: "Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realise that it’s actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right". My head was definitely not right. After some small losses (which are normal) I lost the trust.

I think the hardest part of trading is staying with confidence after a bad trading day/night. This is the big advantage at tennis. Thanks te proved strategies of Sultan I don't lose the faith.

Lately my results at soccer are stronger than the ones at NBA. Probably is the bigger experience. I can trust more my game reading. At basketball everything is looking so random. Last days Orlando managed two times to win a match after their opponents (Oklahoma and Indiana!!) were trading at 1.01. How you can expect such a comeback?! Beside some tighter looking games (like San Antonio at Detroit) were extremely one sided. At the moment I am not so sure anymore about basketball. I don't see any logic, but perhaps it's not necessary. Is about taking swings and it doesn't matter if it's a good or bad team... I am really insecure at the moment, and I don't know if I will continue with basketball. Tennis and soccer at the moment are really better. I will try until end of February. Then I will decide if I continue with basektball.

At tennis I found some new edges at scalping. I will try next days beside swing trading. Perhaps my last post about diversity was wrong. At the moment I definitely feel more comfortable at tennis and soccer than at NBA. Beside the playing hours are another advantage. Is not fun to be awake the whole night for nothing or even a loss...


  1. Keep your head up Martin.

    Perhaps just paper-trade on the NBA for the mean-time and record all your results?

    Yes it's boring, but it is much better to do then losing more of your real money, I am myself am close to doing well in the Tennis, but just some errors are holding me back then my discipline goes, but I'm getting there slowly again.

    1. Thanks Craig

      Yes, the lacking discipline is also a problem for me. Is hard to accept losses, but in general I improved a lot in this topic. You can't risk more money despite the account shortened.

      The big loss at Toronto game was the mistake of a new (bad) strategy. I tried to trade too mechanical. I think it needs more "freestyle" with only a few guidelines. I am not a fan of paper trading. Beside the big loss in the Toronto game, I am still trading with small amounts. With 1'000 Euro my account is not big and I am comfortable to lose 2-3% of this amount in a single bet. When strategies are proven, I will trade at least with ten time bigger amounts. So I am still learning.

      Football seems the best at the moment, but it's a different situation. There I have a lot more experience and with a friend together I am testing strategies since almost one year... right now we are at the point, where we make profit on a frequent way.

      Tennis is getting better, but I am still not there where I like to be. I think is a lack of knowledge. I don't know the players as good as I should. At least I have here proven strategies... so I know it's me, when I lose and not the strategy. I think is the hardest part to create a strategy which you can trust. If you are at this point, you will accept losses without any problem and next day you will win again.