Saturday, 1 February 2014

Offline vs. inplay

Like I wrote two days ago, yesterday I couldn't trade because the lack of sleep. So I decided to make two offline bets. In the end I lost both trades. Cleveland against New York (86:117) and the LA Clippers against Golden State (92:111) were without any chances. Especially the clear defeat of Los Angeles was a surprise for me, but the biggest upset happened at Indianapolis. After the Pacers went 21:1 at home you couldn't expect the defeat against the Phoenix Suns. I had to recognize that offline betting ist not good, because you can't shorten your losses. In the end I lost the whole liability of around 40 Euros.

On the other hand, I had tonight a decent trading night. The start was not that good, because I made a mistake with the Oklahoma game. Instead of reduce the liability I increased it. Beside I didn't close the trade with a (small) loss. In the end I lost more that I should because of stupid trading. At least I could arrange some good trades with Memphis and Dallas. The Mavs started and finished the game strong. Only in the middle part they were struggling. This game running brought nice swings. In the end resulted the best ever yield (over 300%) since I implemented the new strategy. In the end of the night the LA Lakers shortened the P+L. It's shocking how bad they played. No defence, turnovers like hell and at the start of the third quarter they missed 10 of 10 from the field area. Nick Young had a terrible off night. Definitely it would be better to trade Utah. The best of the Lakers is their past, probably this is the reason why is tempting to bet on them. Despite the frustrating loss with Los Angeles and the missed game at Utah, the first five days with the new strategy is quiet promising:

Total staked: 314.31 Euros
Win-/Loss-Ratio: 5:8 (38.4% hitting rate)
Total net profit: 82.03 Euros
Yield: 26.1%
ROI: 8.2%

The good thing is the positive yield despite an unsatisfactory win-/loss-ratio of under 40%. The target is at least 45%. Beside the yield per game can be smoothed a bit. The double swing strategy will be adjusted just a little bit to make more regular profits. Before the double swing was a bit overweighted.

In general I am quiet happy with the development in the last weeks. If I can keep the yield over 20.0% that would be fantastic. Don't forget that the stakes are still quiet small. The liquidity allows at least ten times bigger liabilities. In this case the profit for not even one week would be almost 1'000 Euros...

1 comment:

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