Monday, 10 March 2014

Some thoughts...

Lately was a bit quiet on this blog. I had to go over the books and I did it. In the past I traded on too much fields. NBA at night, tennis at night and day, soccer during the week and at the weekend. Yes, it't tempting to trade as much as possible, but in the end you are not an expert in any sports and beside you are tired all the time.

You have to know that you trade against very smart people (at least the professionals). The market prices are right the most of the time. If you are not an expert in your field you can't find value and it's just betting and no real trading.

So, I  decided to stop with the NBA. First I didn't like so much the night sessions (seven days a week!). Second the liquidity sometimes (when there is no TV coverage) is very poor. The spread between the lay and back odd can be more than 25 ticks. Third it's almost impossible to read the game. It's just "guessing" that a turnaround is possible (normally a good team don't lose all four quarters). Fourth there are just a decent number of games during a night. It's quiet frustrating to stay awake the whole night and not get a good opportunity during six hours.

At soccer I am still not there, where I hoped to be some weeks ago. Some strategies are not working in the way I expected. It's quiet hard to fight against the high rollers in pre game or half time break trades. I have to find a way to go with them and not against them... unfortunately I couldn't read the strategies of the big fishes until now. I just recognized that I have to be more careful. It's easy to lose 10 Ticks offplay if you are on the wrong side...

Beside the high rollers there is another problem. The risk reward profile of the soccer trades were quiet poor. The outcome was probable, but one lost bet destroyed too much profit. So I am looking for a similar strategy, but with higher odds. Yesterday I had a good idea, I will test it during next days and weeks. I will keep you informed.

At tennis I think about a specializing to WTA tour. I have the feeling that the women are easier to trade. First you see more swings because the bigger amount of breaks. Second is easier to read their game and their body language. Some weeks ago a girl even cried during a break because she had not a clue how she can beat her opponent. :-) Third I think there are a lot more surprising results than at ATP tour. In general it's also quiet difficult to trade both, because they play often the same time. Beside you have to know around 250 men and 250 female players. It's a big amount, I think is better to make a first priority on the WTA... I will discuss the idea with my mentor Sultan.

In summary I would say, watch carefully the high rollers at soccer, trade more WTA and less NBA and ATP.


  1. Hi
    I read your blog with great interest. Its facinating to see writings about the struggle and learning curve you (and me too) must overcome.

    I wonder why you seem to make decicions and evaluate so rapidly. The last 4-5 posts I have seen you go in direction of NBA, not NBA, Tennis, more Tennis, less Tennis etc.

    In the fields where I have the most experiance evaluations are not normally done before ca two years have passed, but you evaluate after a few weeks. It must be to soon, no?

  2. Thank you so much. You are partly right, but is not only an issue about not believing. NBA it's just a question about playing hours and liquidity. The strategy doesn't seem so wrong, but if you find a spread between back and lay of 20-30 Ticks is quiet annoying.

    At tennis I see your point. I had not the right attitude. Just take a look one time at a tournament is not enough. You need to watch the players and is a lot easier to recognize value. Is extremely time consuming, but if you don't invest, you will not earn. It's hard work to be a profitable tennis trader in the long term. So I have to watch more tennis.

    Soccer it's quiet okay... I lost money, but was just my lack of discipline. I think I have to focus on some situations and I will do fine.