Sunday, 28 September 2014

Some interesting figures...

Once again I like to refer to the 5 Stages of Betfair Trading:

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.
You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 ticks and weeks where you lose 100 ticks - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

This lasts about 6 months.

I reached the stage "Conscious Competence". I believe in my strategies and most of the time I trade around breakeven. Probably even above a neutral result, but one swallow doesn't make a spring! So I like to keep the euphoria low.

I started to report my trades with the tool Sultan mentioned at his blog. It's called MyBetLog:

It seems that the profits of Sultan are real. It would be difficult to fake these charts. Nevertheless I would enjoy a bit more transparency. Why hiding the most interesting (the numbers)?! He mentioned that premium charge is on his way. So it's quiet easy to estimate the numbers. I would guess, that he earns in an average month high four digit or low five digit numbers (in pounds). Congratulations!

Mybetlog is really a nice tool. You just have to download your betfair data, and the charts are created with one or two clicks:

In the last two days I made four trades, all of them were successful. How you can see, I have a different approach than Sultan. Well, the sample of data it's small, but with my strategy the strike rate will be higher than the 40% of him. It doesn't mean that my one is better. It's just to show that different ways leads to Rome...

Despite the fact that I made a good green, I am not completely happy with my trading. The first stage of the match ( was quiet okay. There is still some space for improvement, but I executed the strategies correct. With the second part of the trade I was not happy. I hedged at wrong moments and I didn't trade the swings like I should. The matches of Kerber (price went from 1.03 to over 2.00) and Murray (price went from 50 to 1) brought great scenarios for a decent profit. Unfortunately I didn't do much out of these opportunities.

At least it was a helpful lesson. It was not that hard like the one of the scammer, but with a better swing trading I could make a lot more profit. I made some small adjustments which will bring (hopefully) better results in the future. I am sure that I need these "jackpot trades" to cover the losses which will come for sure. 4-0 it's a nice run, but a strike rate of 80% it's unfortunately more realistic than one of 100%. Nevertheless I hope that the first loss will not come so quick...

14'415 Euro is the predicted profit of 1'000 markets. This is probably around the number of trades, I can handle (at most) in a year. For me this target seems quiet realistic. Like I wrote some days ago, I like to work as a part time trader in 2015. To go full time I need at least three times higher numbers. If the strategies work that step seems not that difficult, it's just about increasing the stakes. The liquidity of Betfair markets gives a potential of factor 10 or higher (at bigger tournaments). The business plan is looking promising. The project "Ultimo" is on the right track!


  1. I'm not so sure about the self-proclaimed Sultan, have a look at the matches that he claims to make his profits from and see if you can spot anything wrong?

    I'll give you a clue, traders do not make money off trains.

    1. I don't know what you mean. I am not the biggest supporter of Sultan, believe me. I was at academy and I had never the feeling that he is really interested to improve the students. He was not open for new ideas, like a exchange between his group, a report of a student about his academy or live sessions. Beside he never asked me how I was doing, was just one sided traffic. I would prefer more an inside look about his trading days. I am sure that also other students would be interested. Lately I see some improvements. He starts with Skype live sessions.

      Beside there are a lot of good things to say about him. His strategy guide is not bad. Especially for newbies it gives a good idea how you can trade. I like his blog, it's well written and I have a lot of deja vus. The email support was not that helpful, but he answered quick and not with just 1-2 sentences (at least in the beginning). In general it's a serious service. If you don't have too high expectations, it's okay to try.

      I think he could stop the doubters about his trading skills if he would bring more (financial) transparency. I told him more than once, but he prefers to keep the data secret. I just think that faking the profits and the blog posts wouldn't make sense to earn some pounds with students. Beside it's looking real, not so fake like my scammer made it with printscreens of different languages (tried to hide it with censorships) and currencies. I was just too stupid to recognize it at the right time. Shit happens :-(

      For a newbie the service of Sultan it's alright, but don't expect that you will be a trader after the academy. You can come a step closer, but without your own research and hard work you will not make it. So I would call it a basic course.

    2. Hi Again,

      Look Brutali, reverse engineer his trades from his p/l and the point by point data of the matches and you'll see he's a conman, he can trade but his only strategy is lay the fav a set up for about a £250 liability, he then reduces his position as he see's fit(but sometimes he doesn't even do that) in the 2nd set.

      This is not tennis trading and to have the nerve to sell a guide and strategies beggars belief, the man has one strategy which he rinses and repeats. Beware Sultans Baring Gifts my friend. You can learn more on your own.

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  2. If he makes money, it's okay. Why it's not trading for you? It doesn't have to be complicated. He is not transparent and I don't like that. Selling the guide and his knowledge is not a scam. Everybody has to decide if he is willing to pay this amount. I expected more added value, but in the end is like buying everything. Afterwards you know if it was a good Investment or not. In this case I am not 100% happy, but was my mistake. He is a good seller and I overpaid it. With a lower price, let's say 200 pounds, it would be okay in my opinion. For 500 it needs more direct support like Skype sessions and more transperency. He never talked about the details of his trades and that's the point which would bring added value!