Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Strategies

It's a pleasure to work together with my new partner. One of the disadvantages of beeing a trader is the loneliness. You can't share the success or the mistakes during the day with another person like in a normal job. Since we trade together, it's more fun.

Beside the partnership helps to share ideas. I learned that he has different approaches, especially scalping is a big part of his strategy. I know how mighty it can be. When I heard that Djokovic is injured (against Federer at Monte Carlo) I laid him quiet big before the game. As more and more people got this information the price soared. It's all about quick data access and enter the market at points, where is not much risk (before the game, breaks, medical time outs, between the points). Unfortunately I have not the necessary equipment to make money with this way. Courtsiding and quick pictures would help. Obviously you can trade more agressive when you have the security of (quiet easy) scalping profits. Perhaps I will do this approach one day, but at the moment I have not the opportunities to do it.

The common strategies of Sultan are still working for me, but I made some small adjustments. I recognized that it's almost impossible to hit the lowest entry point (on a lay view). For example I saw today value at Benneteau (against Berlocq) after he was down 0:2 in the first set. So I laid Berlocq at 1.33. The French man didn't find his rhythm and continued to struggle until he was 1:6, 0:2 down. Now the Argentinian was traded at 1.03. What did I do? I reduced my stake after the first set and backed Berlocq at 1.11. So I reduced my possible loss to 80%. What happened? Benneteau started a great comeback and the price of his opponent soared to 2.50 (when Benneteau had two breakpoints in the 3th set). Because I reduced my stake too early (the exit point is part of the strategy), my profit was not really good after the start of the 3th set. I hedged (because I was afraid to lose... risk/reward was bad) and ended with a profit of 1.54 Euro. If I traded this matchup in a good manner I could make at least 50 Euro.

This scenario happened too often in the past. The ideas are good, but I can't cash in. When I enter the trade, it often starts bad and I have no balls to hold the position. So I reduce the stake for no value. On the other hand I am often too cautious to take opportunities because I hope for even better entry points...

I decided to turn the strategy. I only stake 1/2 when I initially enter a trade. Instead of reducing the stake (when the trade goes against me), I rise it if there is a lower entry point and I still trust the player. Thanks to the lower initial stake this "two way strategy" is possible. This approach has big advantages:

  • You lose less if a player really struggles and you lose confidence (max. 50%).
  • You can reduce your average entry price if the trade goes against you.
  • If the the trade goes in your direction you probably trade with more balls, because the stake is smaller. It helps in the psychological part of trading.

I am quiet sure that this change will help my mind. In the end trading is a brain game, the traders with the most discipline (money management, proper execution of trades, stop losses) and "biggest balls" (staying in green trades, exit-points) are the most successful. It's like at tennis, the players with most talent, discipline (training efforts, life style) and killer instinct (playing big points, big matches) are the best ones. My biggest issue is definitely the third point... if I like to go one day fulltime I have to solve this issue!



No comments:

Post a comment