Lack of sleep...

I recognized that is almost impossible to trade at night and work beside, even if is only 50%. The body will complain about it. You feel tired, you have headaches and so on. The problem is the different rhythm. If you have a day off at Thursday, you can trade the Wednesday night basketball... but you will sleep the following day. When you wake up is afternoon and you will not be tired to go again to bed at midnight. So is like a daily jet lag. When I have the whole knowlegde for my part time job, I have to look for a better solution. Perhaps I can work one week 4-5 days and the following week I will be out of office. I will see... Midterm is still the plan to become a full time trader.

The other problem is the lack of motivation to stay awake the whole night for just a few bucks. It's about money management. I know that is right not risk more than 2-3% of the account for one trade. You can remember, my bank was hit really hard. So at the moment is just not enough money to trade in a serious way with bigger stakes. On the other hand it's also recommend with a big account to test a new strategy with just a few Euros.

In general I made my learnings of the last weeks. Like I wrote recently is important to rise the yield per game, because you have to cover the bad trades (which definitely will happen with this strategy). In general I am quiet happy with the adjustments I did. How you can see below, I made seven trades. Four bets I lost and three I won. Despite the negative win/loss-ratio I managed to make a profit. So I am on the right way I guess. Beside a redding strategy helped me to prevent losses of the whole stake.

At soccer I arranged a small profit as well. I love football, but is really hard to trade. So it's just my third priority after NBA and tennis. With my friend together I implemented one really good strategy. I think I will only do this one in the future. In the past I tried a lot, but nothing (beside the mentioned strategy) worked like I wanted.

Tonight I will take a break because the problem I mentioned in the beginning. Tomorrow is Friday Night basketball with the weekend ahead. At tennis trading I will return next week. After Australian Open I took a small break to get new energy.

Coudn't trade much...

Thanks to Nation Zoom http://www.bleepingcomputer.com/virus-removal/remove-nationzoom.com-browser-hijacker) I couldn't trade much last night. I had this virus (despite I didn't know it) since some weeks, but was not that disturbing. This night was really a hell, the computer was slow, adds like crazy... So I started to search about Nation Zoom. In the end I recognized that was a browser hijacker. Not really a serious one, but a very annoying.

So I missed a really good game for trading. Cleveland was ahead with twenty points and lost in the end to Phoenix with 90:99. The only game I could do before the virus problems got worse was San Antonio at Miami. I entered at half time (San Antonio was trailling with six points). After a decent start in the third quarter the Spurs lost the plot. Because I was chatting during the trading time, I missed the exit point. In the end I lost the whole stake. The difference between a yield of -65% and -100% seems not that much on a liability of 20 Euros but in the longterm leaving bad trades is one crucial point for a successful trader.

Beside I was thinking about backtesting some NBA games. With Fracsoft (http://www.fracsoft.com/) is possible to create big data banks. You pay 11 pence per game. An analysis of data can help to have a better feeling for your strategies, but in the end is still sports. Every game is different. In my opinion too automatic trading doesn't work in the long term... so I just watched some charts to have a better idea what swings are possible in a normal game. I made my conclusion and adjusted my exit-points a bit. Beside I watched my current data (almost 100 games) and I recognized that there are around 70% games with decent swings (included one sided dog surprises) and around 30% which are one sided favourite games.

This week I am quiet busy. Instead of 50% I will work more or less every day. So I don't know, how much I can trade. I will try my best to gain more experience. The target of this season is learning. 2014/15 I like to make profits on a frequent level.

After the Australian Open tennis (WTA) is played at Paris and Pattaya. Especially the playing ours in France are more my taste that the ones the last two weeks. I will a keep an eye on this tournament. Beside NBA I lost a bit the focus on tennis. I love to return, because the strategies are proved ones. At basketball I am still trading with the method "trial and error". Under this aspect is probably better to invest more time at tennis.

Some thoughts...

At last posting I was asking myself some questions about trading basketball. Let's repeat them:

• Is NBA a good market to trade? At the moment I am not so sure anymore. Yes, there are swings, but it's hard or let's say impossible to read the game. 
• If NBA is good to trade, do I have the right strategies? I am not sure anymore neither. The biggest problem are the one sided games. If this scenario happens, the red amount is too big in comparison to the profit I make with "green bets".
• What I should do if I am all green after a good start? 
• When is the best time to enter the market? I switched from variable entry points to start. Right now I think that this was a mistake. Probably is not good to trade too much with a scheme. Almost never the starting price is the best available one during a game, where you favour the dog.

I think NBA is great to trade. You have swings, momentum changes and decent liquidity. Beside the market often is overreacting. All the traders know that a ten points deficit in the first quarter is nothing but the odd shortens like crazy. Yesterday this took place at game between Toronto Raptors and LA Clippers. The dog was was leading with ten points, the odd shortened to 1.40...

In general I am on the right way with my strategies. I have still the opinion that the value is often on the dogs side. But you can't pick every team. For example Milwaukee and Philadelphia are normally not good choices, neither yesterday. So is about selecting the right ones. It's all about quality over quanitity. You have to make your thoughts before the tip in. I still act with too much hectic. It's not so easy to trade 2-3 games parallel.

The most critical point is the win/loss-ratio in comparison to the yield per game. You are allowed to have a negative win/loss-ratio when your yield per game is high. Here I made some mistakes in the past. The profit&loss of my bad trades were to negative in comparison with the winners. It doesn't help much to have a win/loss-ratio of 7:1 when your yield with green  trades is in average only 10%. That is just an example, but the most important part is the yield of the green trades.

It has to be far over 100%, because the losing bets normally have a yield between -60% to -100%. So it's all about riding the "green wave". Yesterday I traded first time with this approach:

What do you see at printscreen? Despite four of five lost bets I almost had a profitable night. Just one more winner and the profit&loss would be really nice. Let's take a look at the games. Houston was trailling with ten points at half time. I didn't expect that they are more or less without any chances to close the gap in 2nd half. Normally they have the strenghts to make a close game against Grizzlies. About Sixers... perhaps this was not a good trade. To be honest, it was like a hail marry pass at football. Despite that the Sixers could close the gap in the 3th quarter to just four points... LA Clippers at Toronto was my winning bet. The game was played on a high level, probably one of the best NBA games I ever saw. There were lead changes, three pointers, alley oops, dunks and so on. The last game I traded was Chicago at Charlotte. In the end the Bobcats arranged to make it a very close game. Unfortunately their comeback came just one minute too late.

In general the concept seems to work. The yield of the winning bet was at the level you need to compensate the losing trades. Unfortunately I had too much losing trades. Why? I think was a mix between bad selection (especially Philadelphia) and unlucky outcome. What are the learnings? I have to select better to rise the win/lose-ratio. I have to keep the lost amount smaller at the "red trades". All of the ones you saw at printscreen were -100%. The minus of 70 Euros should be at most around 50 Euros. So, it's important to implement a "redding-strategy" as well.

At tennis I didn't think so much or was it bad luck? Just before the injury of Nadal became obvious I entered the trade. Normally back Rafa at 2.00 is tempting, but today was just stupid. Well, at least I can be really happy about the tournament win of our Staaaaaaaaaaaan, the man. :-)  I staked exactly the amount to land (in a bad case... what happened unfortunately) on a level of 1'000 Euro. So it's time to regroup and start a new counting with the adjusted strategies. Let's see how much ROI I can make with the 1'000 Euros as capital employed.

Back to shit...

I was always honest with you, so I am now. I had a terrible night with NBA. Two trades went wrong since the beginning. Charlotte and Atlanta were without any chances during the whole game. On the other side, I put my profit on a comeback of the Boston Celtics. Just when I layed the 1.15 the Thunder made ten or more unanswered points. Murphy's law I think...

Since the beginning with the new system, I am more or less breakeven after this "all went wrong night". The financial damage is not severe, but I am starting to lose the confidence in trading NBA. Is so difficult to find the right comebacks or good performing dogs. This league is extremely unpredictable, even inplay. Two days ago Orlando was looking terrible, but the Magic managed a comeback. I traded out, that was a mistake. Today I hoped for similar scenario at Atlanta or New York. No chance at all, at MSG Melo hat a terrific night with over 60 points!

I have to go over the books. There are a lot of questions for the moment:

• Is NBA a good market to trade? At the moment I am not so sure anymore. Yes, there are swings, but it's hard or let's say impossible to read the game. 
• If NBA is good to trade, do I have the right strategies? I am not sure anymore neither. The biggest problem are the one sided games. If this scenario happens, the red amount is too big in comparison to the profit I make with "green bets".
• What I should do if I am all green after a good start? 
• When is the best time to enter the market? I switched from variable entry points to start. Right now I think that this was a mistake. Probably is not good to trade too much with a scheme. Almost never the starting price is the best available one during a game, where you favour the dog.

I think that I have some answers to these questions, but I will take a sleep now. After a disappointing night is better to get some new energy and go rested in the next night...

Beside the betfair idiots will rise again the commission for Switzerland and they are arguing that you can have lower rate if you trade a lot. Not a word about premium charge. Seriously, I have to look for alternatives now. These guys just take advantage of their market power. I am surprised that still no other platforms can't take advantage of the unhappiness of betfair customers...

Terrible mistake, but happy...

In the last posting I wrote about the five stages in a trading career. The signs are looking well, that I made it at least to step 4 for the moment http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589

Since some weeks I trade more or less profitable, despite I made still terrible mistakes. Today I redded the Orlando trade, because I lost trust. Just when I left the market, Orlando started its comeback. In the end I have a sad eye and a happy one. First I am sad and angry that I backed such a small odd (1.05 back Atlanta). It doesn't matter much if I lose 42 Euros or 38 Euros. It's stupid, because at basketball you almost ever have a chance for a comeback and is not worth it to give away this chance for four Euros less loss. On the other side I am really happy that the strategy starts to work.

Without the Orlando mistake (was not the strategies fault) I would be on a 14:1 run. The yield is quiet decent. Despite the mistake of Orlando I am at 18.6% after commission since I am working with this system. A realistic target could be 20.0%. Generally speaking and depending upon the strategy employed, a good bettor will yield between five and ten percent profit in the long run: http://www.soccerwidow.com/betting-advice/betting-terminology/stake-yield-roi-investment-definitions/

I ask myself, how I can be that much better? I think is quiet easy to say. NBA brings more swings than tennis or soccer. Beside is not representative after 15 picks. Let's see if i can reach my target of 20% yield. I will keep you informed, also about other KPI like ROI or units won. Tomorrow are only two NBA matches played. I think I will take a rest from trading and get ready for Friday, where twelve games are on schedule...

Somewhere between...

the Eureka moment (stage 3) and Conscious Competence (stage 4) I landed. http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/23512666/the-5-stages-to-betfair-trading#flvWelcomeHeader

In today's fifth set between Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka was impossible to predict the market. Both players were on fire! Because the past results, the market was in favour of Djokovic. He was trading around 1.30 when the score was tied in fifth set (for example 2:2, 3:3 and so on). A good friend of mine wrote me, that Nole win for sure. You can put 1'000'000 Euro on him... well, I don't have this amount. So I decided not to do it. :-)

Seriously, it's a very good example about value. The game was that tight, but Djokovic was traded around 1.30, that's equal to a winning probability about almost 77%. For me Nole should be traded around 1.65 (60% probability). That's the concept, you are not seeking for winners (nobody has a crystal ball). You are searching for value and at this moment (or more or less during the whole match) was on the side of Wawrinka. I started to lay Djoko at 1.11. Later was an other opportunity at 1.02/1.03 after the first set was over. Take a look on there numbers, 1.02 equals a probability of 98%! It means that Djokovic will win 98 of 100 five set matches against Stan after a 1:0-lead. Of course the Swiss was not playing his best tennis at the beginning, but how you can go for 2% after one set?!

More or less the same happened with Ana Ivanovic and Tomas Berdych. After they were ahead 1:0 (Ana) and 2:0 (Berdych) the odds were imploding. Unfortunately I cutted my profit on Bouchard (I didn't trust her until the end) and lost the bet cause Ferrer was struggling after a strong start in the 4th set. He couldn't take profit from the changing momentum. I made the mistake not hedging the trade. It's a pity that I made it just at trades, which headed in the right direction.

Here we are at the point which is the most difficult for me. A lot of traders make the mistake, to let run bad trades and take profits of  the good bets. You have to do exactly the opposite. The redding strategy is not a mistery anymore for me . If a trade goes wrong, I leave it. There will be a lot of more opportunities. Greening is a lot more difficult. If you do it too frequently, your losses will be too big in comparison to your profits. If you never green the trades, you will lose money like me with Ferrer.

I tried to do a mix at Djoker's game. After 3th I decided to close my liability on Novak. In the worst case my profit would be 0. In the end, the hedging cost me some bucks. I am not sure if it was a good decicion because I sold value (explanation above). In the other hand you have to protect your bank, and I made my (value) profit in the beginning.

Now i have the same staking plans for NBA and tennis. First time in my life as a sportstrader I seriously feel that I (almost) reached stage 4. So it will take six months to run in autopilot. :-) I would happy with it. At the moment it's important to strenghen the dicipline, improve the strategies and develop the inplay trading skills.

Things are getting promising...

After a slow start in the year 2014 and a lack of discipline in 2013 things start to get better. Especially the concentration on NBA was a good decicion. Lately I am on a 7-0 run. I love the game, it's fast and exciting. There are just a few games which are one sided from the start to the end. If you sort out these matchups, nice swings are waiting for you. In my opinion is even better than tennis because you are not dependent on one player. It's quiet unusual that the whole team has a bad day...  the only thing you have to be aware is the time clock. Is not worth it to take a 1.01 lay six minute before the end when Miami is leading with 20 points... The liquidity on NBA betfair markets is decent. Beside the problem of courtsiders doesn't exist. Even if you are at the stadium, the game is just too quick to have an advantage. http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/tennis/open-courtsiders-are-gambling-with-lengthy-sentences.23190170

Beside some changes in strategy, I adjust my money management. Of course it's tempting to make 100 Euros or more at each trade, but with my account it's just too risky. My account is my working tool, so I can't blow it again. Despite every trader is a bit jealous about a trade like this:

Congratulation, Matt! I decided to invest at most 6% of my account for one trade. I try to keep the liability low. In the other hand the profits are limited as well. In general I learned that betting is not a 100 metre sprint, it's more like a marathon. If you are patient enough, you will double the "Usain Bolts" after I while... :-)

The most important point remains the value concept. Sometimes is hard to go for a player or team you don't expect to win. It's all about probabilities... the problem at sports betting, they are not that obvious like at casino or playing dice. You need a lot of experience and knowledge of teams and players to see it. I feel some progress, but is still a long way to go for beeing a professional trader. For the moment I am quiet happy with my current results you find below. The American football bet was just a security for eliminating my favourite team, the Denver Broncos :-). Despite the lost bet I am really happy to see them in the Super Bowl!

Thank you, Liverpool!

At basketball was quiet difficult tonight. The favourites were too strong, and my pick of the day (Dallas) showed a terrible performance. In the past they were in love with the Trailblazers. The Mavs were 16:3 wins at home and won the last five. Well, the past is not a good guide.

This fact you also could see at tennis. Ana Ivanovic (before didn't win a set against Williams) made the upset and threw out Serena Williams out the tournament! I didn't have the balls to hold the trade until the end, but I made some bucks thanks to Ana. 

The other lost NBA trade (Utah) was quiet stupid. The Jazz won some games lately, but they are still the grab bag of the league. Away they are normally very poor, so they were tonight. It's important to focus on quality and not quantity. It's a gamble to trust in a team like the Utah Jazz...

Tomorrow are five NBA games:

- Toronto vs. LA Lakers
- Orlando vs. Boston
- Oklahoma vs. Sacramento
- Phoenix vs. Denver
- San Antonio vs. Milwaukee

Milwaukee and Los Angeles are probably not the teams which are very trustful. If there will be a big surprise it could happen at Oklahoma. Without Westbrook OKC it's all about Kevin Durant. Since the team moved to Oklahoma they never lost at home against Sacramento. Yes, it's history... so it doesn't count for the future. Despite I favour the matches at Phoenix and Orlando.

Brulati strikes back...

After a disappointing start in the week, Thursday and Friday night were quiet well. The concentration on NBA brings the first fruits. The new strategy works decent, the hit rate of all 26 matches which were played between 15th and 17th January were over 80% (only five losers).  If you take away two games which didn't fullfil the selection criteria at all you only would have three losers on 26 matches. Neither the mentioned three games were the hottest picks for this strategy. So if you make a tight selection process you didn't have any losers so far (you can also see it at printscreen).

So far, so good. On the other hand the inplay trading is still not on the level it should be. Today I could make 100 Euros with the Los Angeles Lakers at Boston. Unfortunately I wasn't patient enough for the final swing. In the end I made only 7 Euros instead of 100 which could be possible. In general I trade still too cautious and passive. Probably the biggest reason is the lack of confidence after a bad run in the beginning of 2014 and at the end of 2013. An other explanation is the new strategy which is not tested enough for planning with sustainable profits. Despite I didn't want to contain some thoughts about possible numbers.

With a medium liability (around 100 Euro a bet) you can make around 20 Euros per trade (included the lost bets). If I am right, over 2'000 NBA are played every season. If you take every second game, would the profit be around 20'000 Euros. With a higher liability and better trading during the game 100'000 Euros seems a reachable number with basketball trading.

Beside there is some potential at tennis (there are traders which make more than the above mentionend numbers with tennis) and soccer. So the salary of my last job as employee seems not so far away anymore. Together with my part time job and some investment opportunities (after selling my appartment) I am quiet confident for the (financial) future.

Still not there, where I like to be...

Like every other job trading needs experience. After a good night you can't think that you are a professional now. One swallow doesn't make a spring! It's all about experience, even the full time traders have good and bad days.

Yesterday I didn't have a really good night. Just after I entered the game between Isner and Klizan the US player retired. Gojowczyk struggled too. Probably I entered too late in the market. After the first break in the first set the German was traded for 1.20. At this level he was a clear lay. In the third set with the score of 0:2 you could lay Hanescu for 1.30. So I didn't recognize the value bet in the beginning. Was the 2nd time in two weeks that the Romanian crashed one of my trades. He is not the best player, but his serve is huge and is not so easy to break him. I learned  that is better to enter the market before the match or at 1st/2nd set. With this strategy is so much time to turn things the right way. An entry in the 3th set with 0:2-deficit is a gamble and should only be an option with very huge favourites.

At NBA is slighly different because you are playing against the clock. If you make a trade you always have to consider that you are playing against the other team AND the clock. In the past I layed some favourites since the tip in. I recognized that is not always a good decicion. If the big favourite starts strong, the chart goes south and will never come back. It's all about value, sometimes even a 1.10 odd can be a good backing opportunity (despite I will not do it). I started to make my own previews, and if I have the feeling that the underdog has no real chance to keep the match tight, I will not lay the favourite anymore (even if it seems almost ever a good idea to lay a small odds at NBA). Lately I did it with Dallas against Orlando (lost trade), Oklahoma (won trade, but was sweating blood) and was watching the same scenario at other games.

At the moment I am updating the trading guide. We are already at version 1.10. We have a lot of soccer strategies, but basically I only execute one of them. At tennis I am trading with the 14 strategies of Sultan. They are quiet well and there is no need to change anything. At basketball I started with scalping and swing trading. After a while I recognized that the best is to combine these strategies. That's about Bruce Lee... he took the best of all the fighting styles. I try the same, that's the reason for the name of my Lay trades.

This night are only four NBA games played. This makes room for some tennis. Definitely I don't like the playing hours of Australian Open because it creates a conflict with basketball. Neither I like the early hours between 6 and 10 am. Normally it's working time for me, or in other case I am too tired after a long NBA night. I look forward for tournaments in Europe and South America...

Things are improving...

Like I hoped, things are starting to improve. Despite poor performances of my picks (for example Atlanta or Cleveland today) I could manage the last two nights "green books". Some days ago I picked the right winners (even underdogs) but in the end I lost my trades. What changed? I think the main point are the improved understanding of market movements and the better knowledge of the teams. Beside I trade saver, in general I stay out of the game in the 4th quarter. Thanks the higher volatility you can make a lot of money at the end of match, but is no serious trading.

While NBA is getting better and better I am still struggling at soccer. After a market maker pushed down the odd pre game, I layed Liverpool. Unfortunately was not a good decicion. It seems that is not a good idea to go against a strong favourite, especially at the day which the match is played.

Beside the first round of Australian Open take place at the moment. A lot of games are played, it's a good opportunity to improve the knowledge of players which you don't see everyday. On the other hand the liquidity of the markets is not the best. To be honest... perhaps is better for me. At the moment I try to learn with small amounts. I don't like to have a bigger liability than 50 Euros. This night I did quiet well. Depends on the final outcome I am green between 15 and 50 Euros. In comparison to my current account I am happy with this result.

Trade save, don't be greedy!

Before the NBA games started I was searching for some surprises. I thought that especially Brooklyn can beat the current champion Miami Heat. In the end the Nets did it after second overtime. Before the tip in, Miami was a 1.50 favourite. Beside I thought that Washington can make a close game against Indiana. In the beginning they did. In the end they had no chance to win. They made only 66 points and lost 66:93...

Atlanta came back after a very weak start against Houston. Also Chicago won after a comeback. The same happened at Memphis. Some teams were behind almost since the beginning, for example the Lakers. But even they were one time ahead (3:0 just after start)... same scenario with Utah and Orlando.

It's kind of strange, that was not possible to make profit with so many swings. It's obvious that the strategies still not work properly. The greed is too present. I recognized that is quiet important to get "green books" in the beginning. If I would realize the book gain at Indiana's game, the night would be okay. So the conclusion of the night is:

Trade save, don't be greedy! Don't let open the first trade too long.

Was a "red night" again, but at the moment is more important to learn. Tomorrow is the next chance to perform better. I am quiet sure that I am now at the point where things start to improve.

Blog renamed again...

First the blog's name was Grand Slam trading. After I changed it to Bruce Lee Trading, because I don't trade just tennis. In last days I had the idea to rename it to Bruce Lay Trading. Probably you're asking yourself why such a strange name, right? :-)

Well, the first change is quiet obvious. If you don't trade just tennis, Grand Slam trading sounds strange. Last two months (okay, there was a one month break of tennis) I barely traded tennis. I was more focused on soccer and since around a week on basketball. So you need a more general name. Why Bruce Lee? Bruce Lee was a fighter which combined different fighting techniques to his own, very successful style. He tried to mix the best elements of various fighting styles. This is also my concept. Meanwhile I know some traders, their sports and strategies. Beside I made my own thoughts. I started to combine the approaches and only took the elements I liked. For example I don't like the "back the server strategy" at tennis.

So far, so good. Now should be clear why the name was "Bruce Lee Trading". Last days I recognized that 90% of my trades are lays. So I developped the idea to change the Lee to Lay. It's a play of words and describes my betting style perfect. For me the name is just amazing. I think this one will stay until the day I will stop trading. Actually is not planned today or tomorrow... :-)

My first official week as part time trader is almost over. Let's face it, I was not successful at all. I can blame the basketball players which didn't make the baskets I wanted. The referees I can't blame, because they are almost never a topic at NBA ;-). I can blame my computer because one time it crashed. If I would do this, I will never improve my trading. My last three NBA nights were quiet disappointing. First I lost some bucks, second I didn't sleep much in nights I had to go work or today I wasted the morning in the bed. Second was quiet nerving during the games. Before the start there was a lot of optimism in the end just frustration.

When I look backwards the results and the frustration are just based on personal faults. My analysis before the game was good and if I would just bet (and not trade during the games) I would have a "green book". During the game I tend to panic and make the wrong moves. In general I close too early good trades (for example Brooklyn Nets... despite they had a horrible start) and let run bad trades or even worse I get involved more (Indiana Pacers).

To be successful you have to cut losses and let run the profits.

 

In theory sounds so easy. How can I transfer this motto to reality? That's the most important topic at the moment. What will I do? I will take the proven tennis strategies of Sultan and will transfer them to NBA. Yes, the basketball is bigger than the one at tennis :-), but in general the trading is the same. Both sports have a lot of momentum changes which lead in a roller coaster chart. Both sports have more suprises (wins of underdogs) than soccer. Both sports you can trade every day with a decent liquidity. So I am quiet sure that a good tennis trader will also succeed at basket and vice versa.

This night I will take a break. First I have a quiet busy day tommorow, second there are only two basketball games this night. Unfortunately at the moment the tennis games are played more or less at the same hours like basketball. So I have to set priorities. At the moment I favour the US sports, but I follow the tennis games as good as I can. Latest when ATP and WTA will return to Europe I will be more involved again.

Trading night

My friend and his girlfriend came from Germany to make a visit in Zürich. Of course in the night couldn't miss a NBA trading session. Let's face it, the profit was not huge, but at least we made some bucks. More important were the fun and die ideas we could share together.

Now we are quiet sure that basketball is a really great sports to trade. Even if we didn't do the best trades (yes, we are just beginners), we were more than breakeven in the end. Now we adjusted our s strategies and will test them in the next few months.

 Unfortunately next days I will not have so much time to trade. I start my new job which is a pleasure for me. It will give me the financial security for trading. To start as full time trader is too early in the moment. In year 2014 I will definitely stay part time. If it works like I hope and guess, it's planned to go fulltime one day. I don't set any financial targets at the moment, because it would have a negative influence on my trading. For sure I like to make one day with trading as much as I earned in my last job. At the moment is just a dream... beside is not all about money. You need your happyness at job, because you spend so much time at office. I am happier now. I earn less, but I can spend the time more in the way I like.

Back to bettting... beside NBA I trade tennis matches. Australian Open will start soon. Nadal and Wawrinka showed with tournament wins, that they are ready. Roger Federer lost the final in Brisbane against Hewitt. I guess that his slow slump will continue. Perhaps he will win one more grand slam tournament, but unfortunately his best times are definitely over. I was impressed about the performance of Monfils at Doha. Will be interesting to see how he will perform in Austalia. At WTA is all about Williams. At the moment I see nobody which can compete with her. Ivanovic played a good tournament at Auckland. Can she be a suprise at the first grand slam tournament of the year?!

You see, january will be a very interesting month for tennis and basketball traders. Let's see how I can develop in the first month of year. I keep you informed...

Quiet frustrating day...

Normally I don't make three postings a day, but today is a special occasion. I am around 24 hours  in front of the computer (now I start to get tired :-)) and just missed the biggest opportunity. What a game between Paire and Granollers. First was all Granollers, Paire was trading at the beginning of 2nd set around 8. Later in the set changed the momentum and the odd of Paire was dipping to 1.01... in the end of the third set it changed everything again and Granollers won in the tiebreak!

Was bad luck for me, all the other good opportunites I tried, but there was no winner. Sometimes there were three missed break points or just a too late comeback. Definitely the worst part is the fact that I had to leave the house just at the time Granollers and Paire were playing. When I came back, the opportunities were gone.

In one day a crashed lay 1'000 at Basketball and a perfect rollercoaster in tennis, that's amazing. Sultan is right, you just have to stay patient for the right opportunity. Unfortunately I had today a bad timing to sit in front of the computer. But well, the life as a trader continues. There is no time to be angry about a missed trade. You have to focus on the next opportunity. I hope there will be at least one tonight at NBA. To be really ready in around seven hours, I will take some rest now and will sleep a bit.

Stay tuned! Updates will follow soon...

NBA: Lay 1'000 crashed...

Sometimes betting is just crazy. I don't know if it was a professional (which was seeking for easy money) or a beginner which placed this trade. I only know that the guy which did it will not have a good night.

33 Euros were traded at 1'000! I don't know who is risking 16'500 Euros to get 16.50 back if the bet is a winner?! I mean in basketball everything is possible. How I can remember, Orlando was leading with nine points two or three minutes before the end. It's an open secret that the last minutes at basketball can last forever. In the end Cleveland won the game in Overtime... what is the lesson? Don't bet against the big surprise. Beside also Oklahoma was hammered with 1.01..

I am not gloating, I really feel sorry for the person which lost this bet. In my past I also lost one or two painful bets (lately one with Manchester City... when three goals were scored in five minutes) with a back 1.01. I learned my lesson, since then I am really aware for backing low odds. I am quiet sure, in long term you will lose.

Beside this trade my ones are laugher. I traded four games and won 12.43 Euro. More or less the amount the above mentioned guy wanted to win with his lay 1'000 bet. In comparison to this trade I didn't take much risks, nevertheless I was not that happy with the outcome. A lot of missed opportunities (Oklahoma and San Antonio lost as big favourites; Orlando was crashed with the mentioned lay 1'000) and beside ny strategies were not fitting the game that good. I thought that I can copy the ones of tennis, but is not that easy... is a different game and because there is a limited duration of game you have to consider the time aspect as well.

Now I defined six strategies for the different stages of game. I can't go in the details here (for obvious reasons), but in general is the opposite which the guy did that I described in the beginning. It's about laying low and backing high. Now mistery, keep it simple and with low risk. That are probably the most important points in trading.

Value betting...

Dear blog followers, I wish you all the best for the year 2014! I hope you started well. My beginning was allright. I watched a lot of sports, especially tennis and basketball. The analysis showed that I struggled in 2013 especially at football. So I decided to put the focus on the other two sports.

Today I was active on the tennis markets. Unfortunately both trades (Brands and Garcia-Lopez) went in the wrong direction. The Spaniard missed two many breakpoints (two times three in a row) in the 2nd set. Brands didn't serve like he did in prior rounds. On the other hand Monfils played an outstanding game. Despite the lost bets the red figure was always under control. Lately I became more used with the value concept. I can better accept to lose trades. It's not about picking winners (in other case nobody would bet against Djokovic or Nadal), it's about trading probabilities. If you think that a player has a 20% chance to win and you can find an odd around 10 (which equals a 10% probability) you make the trade. Obviously you lose this bet in 4 of 5 times, but over long term you will win...

So, it's all about finding value. It's not easy, but together with my mentor I am improving to recognize these trades. Beside an excel list helps me. I make notes about all my bets and the players. At the moment my knowledge is not enough to compete with the best traders. That's just normal, even if I am talented (actually I don't know... at least I have a lot of bite), I have to learn like all the other stuff, for example languages or a new sports.

Beside I love to watch and trade basketball. I can use more or less the same strategies like in tennis. It's a good diversity (for example is not tennis at Decembre) and it seems the entry points are easier to choose. On the other hand is more difficult to decide when you are leaving the trade. Yesterday I made the same mistake like in the past with tennis. I favoured Denver, even with a ten point deficit, against Philadelphia. In the beginning they were ahead with five or six points and could be layed for 1.20... that would be a good trade, because the Nuggets lost the last seven games. Also at basketball you have to trade the market and not the teams! I am looking forward to the upcoming night. I am sure there will be again a lot of good trading opportunities.