Thursday, 23 January 2014

Terrible mistake, but happy...

In the last posting I wrote about the five stages in a trading career. The signs are looking well, that I made it at least to step 4 for the moment

Since some weeks I trade more or less profitable, despite I made still terrible mistakes. Today I redded the Orlando trade, because I lost trust. Just when I left the market, Orlando started its comeback. In the end I have a sad eye and a happy one. First I am sad and angry that I backed such a small odd (1.05 back Atlanta). It doesn't matter much if I lose 42 Euros or 38 Euros. It's stupid, because at basketball you almost ever have a chance for a comeback and is not worth it to give away this chance for four Euros less loss. On the other side I am really happy that the strategy starts to work.

Without the Orlando mistake (was not the strategies fault) I would be on a 14:1 run. The yield is quiet decent. Despite the mistake of Orlando I am at 18.6% after commission since I am working with this system. A realistic target could be 20.0%. Generally speaking and depending upon the strategy employed, a good bettor will yield between five and ten percent profit in the long run:

I ask myself, how I can be that much better? I think is quiet easy to say. NBA brings more swings than tennis or soccer. Beside is not representative after 15 picks. Let's see if i can reach my target of 20% yield. I will keep you informed, also about other KPI like ROI or units won. Tomorrow are only two NBA matches played. I think I will take a rest from trading and get ready for Friday, where twelve games are on schedule...

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