Tuesday, 14 January 2014

Still not there, where I like to be...

Like every other job trading needs experience. After a good night you can't think that you are a professional now. One swallow doesn't make a spring! It's all about experience, even the full time traders have good and bad days.

Yesterday I didn't have a really good night. Just after I entered the game between Isner and Klizan the US player retired. Gojowczyk struggled too. Probably I entered too late in the market. After the first break in the first set the German was traded for 1.20. At this level he was a clear lay. In the third set with the score of 0:2 you could lay Hanescu for 1.30. So I didn't recognize the value bet in the beginning. Was the 2nd time in two weeks that the Romanian crashed one of my trades. He is not the best player, but his serve is huge and is not so easy to break him. I learned  that is better to enter the market before the match or at 1st/2nd set. With this strategy is so much time to turn things the right way. An entry in the 3th set with 0:2-deficit is a gamble and should only be an option with very huge favourites.

At NBA is slighly different because you are playing against the clock. If you make a trade you always have to consider that you are playing against the other team AND the clock. In the past I layed some favourites since the tip in. I recognized that is not always a good decicion. If the big favourite starts strong, the chart goes south and will never come back. It's all about value, sometimes even a 1.10 odd can be a good backing opportunity (despite I will not do it). I started to make my own previews, and if I have the feeling that the underdog has no real chance to keep the match tight, I will not lay the favourite anymore (even if it seems almost ever a good idea to lay a small odds at NBA). Lately I did it with Dallas against Orlando (lost trade), Oklahoma (won trade, but was sweating blood) and was watching the same scenario at other games.

At the moment I am updating the trading guide. We are already at version 1.10. We have a lot of soccer strategies, but basically I only execute one of them. At tennis I am trading with the 14 strategies of Sultan. They are quiet well and there is no need to change anything. At basketball I started with scalping and swing trading. After a while I recognized that the best is to combine these strategies. That's about Bruce Lee... he took the best of all the fighting styles. I try the same, that's the reason for the name of my Lay trades.

This night are only four NBA games played. This makes room for some tennis. Definitely I don't like the playing hours of Australian Open because it creates a conflict with basketball. Neither I like the early hours between 6 and 10 am. Normally it's working time for me, or in other case I am too tired after a long NBA night. I look forward for tournaments in Europe and South America...

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