Saturday, 25 January 2014

Back to shit...

I was always honest with you, so I am now. I had a terrible night with NBA. Two trades went wrong since the beginning. Charlotte and Atlanta were without any chances during the whole game. On the other side, I put my profit on a comeback of the Boston Celtics. Just when I layed the 1.15 the Thunder made ten or more unanswered points. Murphy's law I think...

Since the beginning with the new system, I am more or less breakeven after this "all went wrong night". The financial damage is not severe, but I am starting to lose the confidence in trading NBA. Is so difficult to find the right comebacks or good performing dogs. This league is extremely unpredictable, even inplay. Two days ago Orlando was looking terrible, but the Magic managed a comeback. I traded out, that was a mistake. Today I hoped for similar scenario at Atlanta or New York. No chance at all, at MSG Melo hat a terrific night with over 60 points!

I have to go over the books. There are a lot of questions for the moment:

  • Is NBA a good market to trade? At the moment I am not so sure anymore. Yes, there are swings, but it's hard or let's say impossible to read the game. 
  • If NBA is good to trade, do I have the right strategies? I am not sure anymore neither. The biggest problem are the one sided games. If this scenario happens, the red amount is too big in comparison to the profit I make with "green bets".
  • What I should do if I am all green after a good start? 
  • When is the best time to enter the market? I switched from variable entry points to start. Right now I think that this was a mistake. Probably is not good to trade too much with a scheme. Almost never the starting price is the best available one during a game, where you favour the dog.
I think that I have some answers to these questions, but I will take a sleep now. After a disappointing night is better to get some new energy and go rested in the next night...

Beside the betfair idiots will rise again the commission for Switzerland and they are arguing that you can have lower rate if you trade a lot. Not a word about premium charge. Seriously, I have to look for alternatives now. These guys just take advantage of their market power. I am surprised that still no other platforms can't take advantage of the unhappiness of betfair customers...


  1. Can you give me your E-Mail address brucelay, I will message you my skype address, im quite interested with showing you an idea that may well help you out with some part of your trading.


    1. Hi Brucelay,

      Thanks for your address, I sent you an E-Mail.


  2. Thanks TA... let's stay in contact. I think two brains are better than one :-)

  3. You were positive a few days ago, after a few bad losses you are really negative.

    Don't get too carried away after a good period, and don't get too upset after a bad period. Be less emotional.