Sunday, 13 April 2014

First month of (real) trading


What you see on the right is the profit and loss chart of the first month of serious trading. I followed all the strategy rules, and I adjusted stakes to an appropriate level. After a decent start at Miami, the second part of the tournament was quiet bad. I took too much trades cause of overconfidence. I was afraid to miss an opportunity. Instead of waiting for the right moment, I entered "everywhere". Beside I overstaked at one trade (Murray vs. Tsonga). Actually I have a 4* systems (stakes between 0.5% to 2.0% of the account), but lately I try to stay always under 1.0%. I think it's better to keep it simple and have just two different stakes. Beside you have nothing to regret after a good bet that you didn't stake higher... I decided to work with a stake which I red up if the trade goes against me and one I let run whatever it happens. Of course the second one is smaller and I do this approach not that often...
After a small break on the ladders at Miami, I had a great last week with the tournament at Charleston and Davis Cup. I went on a 6:1-run. The good variance turned this week in a bad one. Despite not trading that bad, I was most time on the wrong side.  
In total I placed 54 trades. I produced 18 winners, 21 losers and 15 scratched bets. From the trades I made, only seven hat the final right outcome (for example when I layed Djokovic, he lost in the end). So only in 12.9% of all bets taken, the player won which I was on. That's extremely poor and shows my overtrading. I mean it's not about picking winners (I am not so worried about this number), but of course there is a correlation between the right final outcome and the profit&loss statement. Especially if you decide to let run the (green) trade, you need the right winner.
In summary I see the following ups and downs:
+ Discipline was good
+ Stakes were quiet appropriate
+ No chasing of losses
+ Redding Strategy
- Impatience / Overtrading
- Poor hitting rate of the final outcome / green trades were too small
- Player and market knowledge
It's obvious at which skills I have to work. I have to strenghten my patience. Like I wrote some days ago, you find the value more often inplay as before the start. So it's better to miss some opportunities pre game instead of beeing since the start in troubles. It happened too much, especially at the tournament in Miami (Laying Williams, Raonic, Wawrinka, Tsonga, Federer). The poor hitting rate of the final outcome and the missing knowledge of players/market have a strong connection. I feel the difference in trading, if I know the player very well (Top 20) or not. Outside Top100 it's more guessing than knowing some often repeating patterns.
In general I am happy with the progress. When we take a look on the five stages of betfair trading (https://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1589) I would say I am at level 4. I am around breakeven, I have good days/weeks, but also bad ones. I hoped that I can learn the whole trading quicker, but it's normal (if you believe the professionals) that it takes more than one year to make sustainable profits. You also can see this fact at Sultan's Blog. At least I know now, that I can completely concentrate on tennis. I trust the strategies, and I had to recognize that NBA and soccer is nothing for me... If I believe the in the five stages of betfair trading, it will takes me six month to reach the level five. So I will be there more or less at US Open. :-)
 

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