Tuesday, 29 April 2014

Too much action...

Today I recognized another reason for struggling. In the beginning of a week / tournament there is so much action. We see 40 games and more during a day. It's difficult to decide which matchups could be the good ones. Beside it's dangerous because you have no information how motivated the player is in his first round game. For example Russian players often are not that drilled in the beginning of smaller tournaments. Perhaps they make easier money with betting on their opponent. :-)  No joking, we know the stories of Kafelnikov and Co.

The risk of hopping around with no real plan it's quiet big at the start of the week. Beside the matches I am watching, I have always open the scoreboard of the other ones. It's okay to know the results, but I should not become influenced. If I decided BEFORE the match not to trade, I am not allowed to enter the market. It doesn't matter how the score is!

Today I layed Machado against Tursunov after he was 4:0 up. In the end the unmotivated and not good moving Russian lost 0:6, 0:6! I made this trade just because I saw on the scoreboard that a suprise is on his way... I was not prepared for this game. I didn't know anyhing about the home guy and had no clue that Tursunov is such an unmotivated mug on clay. I guess he made a bet on Machado :-). More or less the same story happened at the Stosur vs. Baczinsky game.

Beside I had some good ideas, but didn't make the profit I should. Kohlschreiber (H2H 0:4 vs. Istomin was a clear lay) and Oprandi (after the first set) were overpriced after her 2nd place at Marrakesh. Unfortunately I didn't trade enough smooth with the greens. At the women's match I was a bit too cautious and made too early "all green". I don't want to complain, I think the match was quiet even. After Zahlavova went up one break I hedged. There was a later opportunity to reeenter again (for a small amount). Hedging on a low level (around 1.20) and go in again for no risk at higher level could be a good strategy (especially at WTA). At the Kohlschreiber game I was too confident after the second set that the home player will bring home the bacon. Actually the value was not on him, so my 80% profit on him was quiet stupid. Like I wrote above, the H2H was 0:4 and now 0:5... with this facts and a quiet even game it doesn't make much sense to go with a 1.40 favourite. I made a bet and not a trade and with this behaviour you will not make profit in the long term. Like Sultan says, you have to trade the market and not betting the players.

Today I made seven trades and I am only happy with one. It was not perfect (the Oprandi trade), but not so much to say against. Beside I arranged three average trades. Not really good ones, but you can do it. Unfortunately I made three bad ones as well. One time I entered at the 3th set against a favourite. Nothing really bad, but the entry was too early. Beside I am really not happy with the above mentioned trades of Stusor and Tursunov.

Some easy learnings of today: Better preperation of the day (I mentioned it some posts ago, but it's still not enough) and just trading games which I considered as good matchups the day before. Beside this matches have to be watched since the beginning (no parallel trading, no scoreboard trading).

Today I will not trade anymore tennis. I am just taking the value of Bayern Munich. They are at almost 4 to win the Champions League (not far away from the beginning... they lost just 0:1 at Madrid!). Beside they are at 2.60 to go in the final...

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