Sunday, 27 April 2014

Year zero

Sultan, my teacher, wrote some years ago in his blog:

"It's been one year since I started trading but I am re-setting the time. I'm basically saying 'forget about the past year. All that has happened is water under the bridge. Forget the awful losses, the lack of discipline, the lost time. Today marks the start of a new beginning. I will act as if I'm new to trading again. My aim is to recreate the way I traded 12 months ago, when I was ultra-careful and stuck resolutely to my strategy. The baggage of my mistakes over the past year is what is making me impatient, so I need to get rid of it and start afresh, so I don't feel as much weight on my shoulders. There are no losses to chase and no regrets to ruminate over, it's a clean slate. Year Zero starts as of now and I hope that in one year's time, I will look back on February 20th as the day when my successful trading life began".

It's not that bad in my case (especially the discipline is quiet okay!), but I recognized that the financial figures pressure me too much at the moment. When you reach a new year to date low, you are not trading like you should. It's not a typical chasing of losses, but probably I take more trades than I should. Bad variance moved me in the red zone. The ROI year to date is exactly -5.0%.

I decided to stop the financial reporting for the moment (so no more profit&loss statements so far on this blog). More important it's a proper documentation of all the trades (which I already make). I will just make a quality reporting of good, medium and bad trades. Like I wrote some days ago, a won trade can be bad one and a lost bet can be good one. Believe me, after the match I know exactly how good the quality of the trade was...

Today was again a pity. I expected suprises of Giraldo and Torro-Flor. Instead of keeping the value of the Colombian during the match, I hedged for a comeback of Almagro (despite he was not looking great). Torro-Flor I not even traded, because I thought the start price is too high for a lay. I totally "forgot" that even backing a 1.01 odd can be value...Beside I still was sleeping when Rosol started his comeback against Haase. Yes, it sounds like aftertiming now, but it's the truth. Beside I traded Jankovic against my gut feeling after the first set.

Once again I have to take the positive things of another disappointing day. I am capable to spot value. Beside my game reading is getting better. Actually I scratched twice (Gulbis, Muguruza), when my gut feeling told me that they will struggle. And they did...

What improvements I will do?

  • Reduce the financial pressure (no more reporting about the profit&loss)
  • Document the quality of the executed trades
  • Hold the value as good as possible during a match (it takes forever until the market loses the trust in the favourite... despite the underdog plays better)

The third point is really difficult. I can remember that Rafa Nadal was trading some years ago at Wimbledon around 1.50 when he was 0:2 sets down against Rosol. I guess at this point a lot of Rosol backers hedged there profit for bad value. Probably a lot of them even put all their green on Rafa... That's the point, why laying first for 1.02 (when it was less probable that he will win) and then hedging at 1.50 (when it's quiet probable that he can win)?

I mean it's just an example, but it shows my problem. I often trade out for bad value. A bit of hedging it's okay, but it should go more in the direction of a free bet for the "value player".

No comments:

Post a comment