Saturday, 12 April 2014

Scratch day

Today was quiet easy to spot value. How the hell Radwanska could be 1.05 after first set against Cornet?! Yes, she played at home and she won the first set 6:0, but her opponent was Cornet which just defeated Serena Williams some weeks ago! I don't know who is backing Radwanska for so low odds? In the end these bettors were burned, Aga lost a three set thriller 6:0, 2:6, 4:6. What did I do? I layed Radwanska, but since the beginning. I already found her with 1.20 too low. To be honest, I expected her to win, but in a really tight fight. After Cornet was up 4:0 in the second set, I scratched the trade... too much risk to go against the Polish girl in tight games. She normally has nerves made on steel.

More or less same story happened with youngster Carballes against Garcia-Lopez. The young man played really great tennis this week and his odd was pushed too low after a slow start. In the end he lost first set, but I was still comfortable with the red, because I just lost some ticks. In 2nd set he was the stronger one, but in the key points he struggled to succeed. So I decided to scratch the trade before the tiebreak.

Granollers vs. Delbonis happened exactly the same as above described. He lost the first set. In the second he played better and was in control of the game. Then he lost out of the blue sky the lead with one break ahead, so I decided to scratch. That was the right decision. After this moment he played crap like in the first set...

How you see protection of the bank is my first principle. If you stay too long in a trade, it can turn against you (even it seems still value). Sultan wrote a great article about the tradeoff between value and the gut feeling.

Sometimes you see value, but your gut feeling tells you don't take the trade. I think it's allright to trust your gut feeling. With low lays you obviously lose more bets than you win (even with value). So it's important you only trade value, which is in line with your gut feeling. If you don't make this, a lost trade feels quiet terrible.

At the moment I am reading all the posts Sultan wrote at his blog. He is a successful trader now. It's encouraging that he went through the same path I am in now. He struggled, was angry. In general I like the blog a lot, the only boring part was the endless discussions about premium charge of Betfair. Yes, it's boring that the most successful traders have to pay a commission up to 60%. I think it was a lot too early for Sultan to think about this issue. First you have to win 250'000 Euro life time (or even pound?) to be penalized that hard. Second I have some understanding for this charge. Let's be honest, the very big players take money out of the market. That's a fact... but to 60% are ridicilous high and it's just greed of betfair. I would say around 35% would be okay. I am not thinking one minute about this premium charge because it will take years to have this (luxury) problem. If am there, I still can switch to Betdaq...


  1. Premium charges are just an excuse.If the big players are taking too much out of the market the only logical move is for Betunfair to cap the amount they can bet.They cant take 50k euros out of the market everytime they trade if they are only allowed to use 5k stakes.Thats just my 2 cents.Maybe Ill write a post about it.

  2. There are two points... Betfair likes to maximize profit. I hate the rise of my commission as well (I started with around 3% and in no time they rised it to 6.5%. Some strategies are not working anymore since there), but as a company is a logical way to make more money. I see the mistake more that there is no real competition at the market of trading platforms.

    Taking out liquidity of the big players it's a kind of excuse, I am with you. But it's not completely wrong neither. The solution could be a limit of stake, that's true. I think the big sharks would not be happy neither. Basically it's the same like a premium charge.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't like the policy of Betfair neither, but I can understand the motivation for premium charge. If we would be on the other side, we would do exactly the same. It's a pity, that there is no real alternative to Betfair.