Thursday, 17 April 2014

Sultan's Trading Academy (part 3)

I recognized that my links referring to the Sultan's Blog don't work (at the moment). Once he was writing about typical newbie mistakes which his students do. I try to remember from memory what he was talking about:

Financial targets
That is a big issue for most of the newbie traders. I can remember that I ask Sultan more than once how much profit I can make. I think I was even the worst student considering this issue. I wanted to make at least the profit I earend at my last job. My (luxury) problem was that the wage was really good...

First I was too much focused on this number. It was something what pressured me a lot. Now I am happy with the new situacion. I work 50% as an employee, which secures the money I need for a good living style. In summary I would say, less money (especially because the 50% are only 35% of the money I earned before), but more happyness and time for me.

Beside people often are fixed on daily, weekly or monthly profit. As a trader you should not focus too much on a timeframe. You will have good and bad runs. So I stopped to care too much about the daily profits. More important is to trade value without (many) mistakes. If you do this, the profits will come for sure. It's only a question of time...

A lot of beginners are not patient enough. Professionals say that you have to trade at least 5'000 hours on a specific market to be profitable on a constant level. You have to stick on a strategy and not changing it like panties. The same patience you need during a trade. It's important to find the right entry point. When I started at the academy, I layed almost every small odd, because I was afraid to miss a (good) trade. Now I am a lot more patient and try to find a good entry point. If you always lay Nadal for 1.01 to 1.03 you will win once or even twice during a season, but I am quiet sure that you will not hold this trade until the end. So it's not worth to trade every possible surprise. It's okay to miss opportunities, the next ones is waiting around the corner. The most important it's the protection of your bank.

Money Management
Overstaking it's a typical problem of new traders. At soccer I did it all the time, especially with scalping. Thanks to the academy I am comfortable with my small stakes. I have no problems with chasing anymore because my losses are quiet small. I would suggest to risk not more than 1% of the account per trade. If you are profitable for at least six month you can rise it a bit. To be equipped for a bad variance I prefer to compound instead. 1% seems a fair number for me...

Picking winners
Most of novice players are looking for winners and not for value. In the beginning of the academy Sultan asked me why I made this trade. I wrote him: "His opponent is crap"... Obviously I was just guessing that "my player" will win. I didn't ask myself if the trade is value or not. Lately I talked a lot about the value topic, so I will not go anymore in the details. One of the main targets of the academy it's learning to spot value. The most important skill for beeing capable to this is player and market knowledge... My know how is still not there where it should be (especially at WTA). At least I trade now more or less breakeven, so I am on the way for better times. :-)  Every match I watch will help me to improve my skills. I see the positive aspects about watching tennis matches, even without entering the market. I like the tattoo of Stanislas Wawrinka:

"Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better". It's from Samuel Backett. Stan represents it better than every other tennis player. He struggled a lot (despite his great talent and hard-working attitude), but in the end he won a Grand Slam tournament.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.
Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.

Closing of trades (redding / greening)
That's the most difficult part for me and most traders (even advanced ones). I am still struggling with this issue. I think it's a human reflex to let run the red trades and hedging the green ones. The academy helped me with redding poor trades. The bigger problem is scratching (for example a green trade goes back to the entry level or take a very small loss) or let run the green trades.

To hedge always the whole trade (make "all green") it's probably not the best strategy. So you don't consider enough the value aspect. To stay "all in" on one player could be on a trading view the right thing (if the value is on the player you are backing), but it's quiet risky and can be frustrating. Construct free bets could be an option, which is a good compromise. You see, it's not so easy... there is not a rule like with leaving a bad trade. It's more gut feeling like the entry of a trade, but I think it's psychologically more difficult.

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